Russia's Invasion of Ukraine (Official Thread)
- Thread starter newarkhiphop
- Start date
1/15
Good news: the "Putin system" is beginning to collapse. Exactly what I had predicted mathematically (in March) is happening, namely: The announced drastic tax increases in Russia (the highest tax increases in the history of modern Russia) as well as Putin's recently published slogans (according to which "everyone must work as if they were at the front") are dramatic signs that the toxicity of the Russian war economy is reaching a critical level.
What does "toxicity" mean:
If the cost of replacing material losses (in such a way that the speed of replacement is in balance with the speed of losses) is no longer within the scope of the financing of the state budget, then a system becomes unfinanceable. This unfinanceability is toxic for a system because it causes the system to collapse in the medium term (unless the war is won).
Russia is familiar with this type of toxicity; the USSR collapsed when the costs of the arms race (pushed by US President Ronald Reagan) could no longer be financed from the state budget, which led to the collapse of the state.
The situation in Russia today is even more dramatic than the situation in the USSR back then. Today it is not just an arms race, but an active war, and in this war there is NO balance between loss and replacement: high-quality military goods (eg modern air defense systems such as the "S-400 Triumf", or tanks and aircraft) can no longer be produced at a speed that is in balance with the rate of losses. And at the same time, Ukraine is compensating for its personnel disadvantages by using drones.
If Russian state revenues are further weakened NOW (e.g. by effective strikes against refineries) and if Russian supply routes are attacked NOW (if Ukraine receives all the weapons it needs for this), then this will massively accelerate the collapse of Russia, shorten the war and lead more quickly to a real peace.
Putin is a loser:
Does he have air superiority over Ukraine?
No. On the contrary, the extent of his superiority is diminishing.
Is Ukraine "demilitarized"?
No. On the contrary.
Has he prevented the expansion of NATO?
No. On the contrary.
Has he restored Russia's imperial greatness?
No. On the contrary, he is now just "the little partner of big China".
Putin is a poker player who can only bluff:
He can only threaten to escalate the war, but he cannot carry out this threat because Russia is far too inferior to NATO.
Putin's only hope: politicians in the West who are hesitant enough (in their efforts to support Ukraine) so that the war can be won "somehow" before Russia collapses.
We must not allow it to come to that.
If Ukraine wins and Russia loses, then the entire China-Iran-Russia axis loses. And that is in the best interest of humanity.
#UKRAINE
#UkraineNeverSurrenders
#ArmUkraineToWin
#ArmUkraineToWinNOW
2/15
RUSSIA IS DEFEATABLE. NOW MORE THAN EVER. #Putin himself knows that as well, which is exactly why he resorts to propaganda and empty nuclear threats (out of the old KGB concept toolbox) when he lacks real military strength. As history teaches us: RUSSIA IS A HISTORICAL LOSER
3/15
Yes, that's always important to remember.
4/15
That's simply the way it is.
5/15
Well said!
6/15
Absolutely right, in each and every single regard.
7/15
Much more CAN be done, that's right.
8/15
Prägnant und exakt auf den Punkt gebracht. Infolge seiner Drohungen wissen wir, dass wir auf dem richtigen Weg sind. Dass an der Verständnisfähigkeit des Herrn Olaf Zweifel angebracht sind, ist leider ebenfalls richtig.
9/15
Die zaudernden Politiker im Westen sind in der Tat ein Problem. Und sie sind Putins realistischste Hoffnung.
10/15
Thank you. I hope the content and meaning of this explanation will reach at least some of the hesitant politicians.
11/15
... and necessary to repeat over and over again, considering all the propaganda.
12/15
If the cost of replacing material losses (in such a way that the speed of replacement is in balance with the speed of losses) is no longer within the scope of the financing of the state budget, then a system becomes unfinanceable.
With mathematical inevitability.
13/15
Indeed, that would be good.
14/15
The calculation is definitely correct. Only the behavior of Western politicians can alter the outcome.
15/15
Exactly. Succinctly to the point.
To post tweets in this format, more info here: https://www.thecoli.com/threads/tips-and-tricks-for-posting-the-coli-megathread.984734/post-52211196
Good news: the "Putin system" is beginning to collapse. Exactly what I had predicted mathematically (in March) is happening, namely: The announced drastic tax increases in Russia (the highest tax increases in the history of modern Russia) as well as Putin's recently published slogans (according to which "everyone must work as if they were at the front") are dramatic signs that the toxicity of the Russian war economy is reaching a critical level.
What does "toxicity" mean:
If the cost of replacing material losses (in such a way that the speed of replacement is in balance with the speed of losses) is no longer within the scope of the financing of the state budget, then a system becomes unfinanceable. This unfinanceability is toxic for a system because it causes the system to collapse in the medium term (unless the war is won).
Russia is familiar with this type of toxicity; the USSR collapsed when the costs of the arms race (pushed by US President Ronald Reagan) could no longer be financed from the state budget, which led to the collapse of the state.
The situation in Russia today is even more dramatic than the situation in the USSR back then. Today it is not just an arms race, but an active war, and in this war there is NO balance between loss and replacement: high-quality military goods (eg modern air defense systems such as the "S-400 Triumf", or tanks and aircraft) can no longer be produced at a speed that is in balance with the rate of losses. And at the same time, Ukraine is compensating for its personnel disadvantages by using drones.
If Russian state revenues are further weakened NOW (e.g. by effective strikes against refineries) and if Russian supply routes are attacked NOW (if Ukraine receives all the weapons it needs for this), then this will massively accelerate the collapse of Russia, shorten the war and lead more quickly to a real peace.
Putin is a loser:
Does he have air superiority over Ukraine?
No. On the contrary, the extent of his superiority is diminishing.
Is Ukraine "demilitarized"?
No. On the contrary.
Has he prevented the expansion of NATO?
No. On the contrary.
Has he restored Russia's imperial greatness?
No. On the contrary, he is now just "the little partner of big China".
Putin is a poker player who can only bluff:
He can only threaten to escalate the war, but he cannot carry out this threat because Russia is far too inferior to NATO.
Putin's only hope: politicians in the West who are hesitant enough (in their efforts to support Ukraine) so that the war can be won "somehow" before Russia collapses.
We must not allow it to come to that.
If Ukraine wins and Russia loses, then the entire China-Iran-Russia axis loses. And that is in the best interest of humanity.
#UKRAINE
#UkraineNeverSurrenders
#ArmUkraineToWin
#ArmUkraineToWinNOW
2/15
RUSSIA IS DEFEATABLE. NOW MORE THAN EVER. #Putin himself knows that as well, which is exactly why he resorts to propaganda and empty nuclear threats (out of the old KGB concept toolbox) when he lacks real military strength. As history teaches us: RUSSIA IS A HISTORICAL LOSER
3/15
Yes, that's always important to remember.
4/15
That's simply the way it is.
5/15
Well said!
6/15
Absolutely right, in each and every single regard.
7/15
Much more CAN be done, that's right.
8/15
Prägnant und exakt auf den Punkt gebracht. Infolge seiner Drohungen wissen wir, dass wir auf dem richtigen Weg sind. Dass an der Verständnisfähigkeit des Herrn Olaf Zweifel angebracht sind, ist leider ebenfalls richtig.
9/15
Die zaudernden Politiker im Westen sind in der Tat ein Problem. Und sie sind Putins realistischste Hoffnung.
10/15
Thank you. I hope the content and meaning of this explanation will reach at least some of the hesitant politicians.
11/15
... and necessary to repeat over and over again, considering all the propaganda.
12/15
If the cost of replacing material losses (in such a way that the speed of replacement is in balance with the speed of losses) is no longer within the scope of the financing of the state budget, then a system becomes unfinanceable.
With mathematical inevitability.
13/15
Indeed, that would be good.
14/15
The calculation is definitely correct. Only the behavior of Western politicians can alter the outcome.
15/15
Exactly. Succinctly to the point.
To post tweets in this format, more info here: https://www.thecoli.com/threads/tips-and-tricks-for-posting-the-coli-megathread.984734/post-52211196
ADevilYouKhow
Rhyme Reason
ADevilYouKhow
Rhyme Reason
Armenia to leave Russia-led security bloc, says PM — Reuters
Armenia will leave a Russia-led security bloc, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan confirmed on Wednesday for the first time, accusing members of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation of having planned a war against his country with Azerbaijan.
apple.news
88m3
Fast Money & Foreign Objects
NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@noelreports@mstdn.social)
Attached: 1 image President Joe Biden announced that five countries will assist Ukraine with Patriot air defense systems. He mentioned that countries waiting for air defense systems from the U.S. have been informed they will need to wait as all available systems will be directed to Ukraine...
mstdn.social
NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@noelreports@mstdn.social)
Attached: 1 video President Biden and President Zelenskyi signed a 10-year bilateral security agreement between the United States and Ukraine. Under this agreement, in the event of an armed attack on Ukraine, top U.S. and Ukrainian officials will meet within 24 hours to consult on a response...
mstdn.social
NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@noelreports@mstdn.social)
Attached: 1 image Britain has expanded its sanctions against Russia, following the United States' lead. The new sanctions include 50 additional items, targeting six ships from the so-called "shadow fleet" and several major Russian financial institutions and businesses. Key entities sanctioned...
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Ukraine just need to stop sacrificing so many of their civilians. They need to sit down and be serious about protecting their people and call for peace, the world cant afford to give ukraine and the zionist state all these free hand outs
Negged for equating Ukraine with Israel.
You are somewhat right - Ukraine is more like the Palestinians. . .but Ukraine is relying on handouts from the west . . as is the zionist terror state. Also Ukraine for some reason "stands with Israel" the irony
Ukraine cant win this war and are needlessly allowing their civilians to die. Let them "defend" themselves if they want, we shouldn't get involved in this CAC violence. Best for them to agree a peace deal with Russia. Returned the neg
The ONLY REASON Israel is functioning is because of U.S. handouts, lettuce just get that out of the way first.
The contradictions in U.S. foreign policy are legion. The hypocrisy is nothing short of astounding.
Israel and Ukraine are Vassal States of the U.S.Also Ukraine for some reason "stands with Israel" the irony
Ukraine is in absolutely no position pragmatically to shyt on U.S./Israel.
lol. How long do you think Putin can dance around NATO? Western Europe is tooling up. Have you taken a look at Poland recently?
Breh, YOU LIVE IN A CAC NATION.
Are you espousing Isolationism? I am willing to have a convo about whether or not the U.S. should be the World's policeman. This is a subject that should be discussed more. The international mechanics, logistics and acceptance of this reality should be scrutinize more often rather than being accepted as status quo.
fukk that. Crimea is getting taken back sooner than later. After that it's a wrap for Putin.Best for them to agree a peace deal with Russia. Returned the neg
Mister Terrific
It’s in the name
When asked by a journalist about Kyiv's support for Israel, Zelensky stressed that Ukraine also offered to help alleviate the humanitarian crisis in Gaza and said that the two periods should "not be mixed together."Also Ukraine for some reason "stands with Israel" the irony
"Ukraine said that if Hamas terrorists attacked civilians on the first day of their attack on Israel, then Israel has the right to defend itself," Zelensky said during the Shangri-La Dialogue conference.
"And after that, when Israel was in Gaza and there was a humanitarian crisis, Ukraine said: Firstly, we are ready to provide humanitarian aid to Gaza.
"Secondly, we must respect international law. Thirdly, Ukraine recognizes two states, both Israel and Palestine, and will do everything it can to convince Israel to stop, to end this conflict and prevent the suffering of civilians."
Zelensky: Ukraine recognizes both Israel and Palestine, seeks to end suffering of civilians
When asked by a journalist about Kyiv's denouncement of Hamas, President Volodymyr Zelensky stressed that Ukraine also offered to help alleviate the humanitarian crisis in Gaza and said that the two periods should "not be mixed together."
kyivindependent.com
Ukraine supports a Palestinian state.