German outlet BILD stated on December 14 that unspecified intelligence findings and sources indicate that Russia plans to occupy Ukrainian territory beyond the four (illegally) annexed Ukrainian oblasts throughout 2024-2026. BILD stated that Russia plans
www.understandingwar.org
What is the thesis for the current map to change? The only thing IMO that could significantly change the calculus is Putin dying and the resulting political upheaval bringing about a wholesale change in Russian interests in imperialism etc. But everything we seem to know about the Russian political elite suggests that the military and security services are unlikely to change course on Ukraine, especially bc of sunk costs etc. Another possibility is some catastrophic event (military/mass casualty terrorist/electronic warfare/economic/protest/political scandal) in Moscow that people believe is somehow directly tied to the war or exposes some massive lie or hidden reality for which they blame Putin. Might be a 1/1000 chance but think about something like a recording/video made in early stages of the war where Putin and Co., speak nonchalantly about being willing to sacrifice as many Russian men/women/children to gain one inch of Ukrainian soil. Some truly off the wall shyt that shocks the conscience of the entire country and world. Outside of something like that, 2024 will be exactly like 2023 and 2025 will be exactly like 2024.
I think Biden will win another term, so at least for the next 4 yrs Ukraine will have a real ally in the oval office. Whatever happens with Congress that is still a huge advantage bc he will be able to influence the Europeans and even if it takes political capital it seems like Biden is in for the long haul. Probably sees this as a legacy issue as well. The problem is that as we know, 2nd term presidents become lame duck pretty early on. By the time 2026 rolls around, we're already going to be talking about who is next and they will have to start putting forth their own Russia/Ukraine policy. If they signal that they're not as committed as Biden, that will be problematic for Ukraine.