Russia's Invasion of Ukraine (Official Thread)

ADevilYouKhow

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ADevilYouKhow

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bnew

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Putin Ally Gives Ukraine Aid Package Lifeline

Dec 21, 2023 at 9:06 AM EST

Zelensky Hails 'Victory For Ukraine' In Europe As Putin Ally Stands Down

By Isabel van Brugen
Reporter
FOLLOW

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has signaled that a €50 billion ($55 billion) package from the European Union for Ukraine could pass if his country is exempted from it.

Orbán, a longtime ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, suggested Thursday that the EU can circumvent his country's opposition to a four-year financial aid package for Kyiv by striking a separate deal among the 26 other bloc members, Bloomberg reported.

Days earlier, he vetoed the aid package at a two-day summit in Brussels. That move came shortly after the EU came to an agreement on starting membership talks with Ukraine.

"It's not a question that Hungary's will can be circumvented in many areas," Orbán told reporters in Budapest on Thursday.


Russian President Vladimir Putin and Viktor Orban

Russian President Vladimir Putin is seen with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán in Beijing, China, on October 17, 2023. Orbán has signaled that a €50 billion package from the European Union for Ukraine could pass if his country is exempted from it.GRIGORY SYSOYEV/POOL/AFP/GETTY IMAGES

The Hungarian leader has frequently criticized sending Ukraine aid to assist the country in its fight against Russia's full-scale invasion, which was launched in February 2022.


On January 27 Orbán suggested that Western nations have already "drifted" into becoming active participants in the war by providing weapons and money to assist Kyiv. Western countries should instead pursue "a ceasefire and peace talks," he said on Hungarian state radio.

Orbán has built strong economic and political ties with Russia but Hungary has condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine and has gone along with a number of EU sanctions packages.

Hungary has refused to supply Kyiv with weapons, despite appeals from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to Western leaders for military supplies.

Hungarian Defense Minister Kristóf Szalay-Bobrovniczky said in February that his country does not want to see an escalation of the war in Ukraine. He said Hungary wants to remain on the side of peace and that it provides humanitarian aid to Ukrainians fleeing the war.

"We live in a time of danger," he said at the time.

Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar told reporters on December 15 that Ukraine will get its €50 billion aid package with or without Orbán's approval.

"It's possible for the 26 member states to provide the money on a bilateral basis," Varadkar said. "A bit of time and space over the Christmas period might help."

Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte told Politico he was "fairly confident" EU leaders could come to a compromise early in 2024.

Orbán said in January that he believes EU countries that have promised or have provided Ukraine with weapons are "not only in danger, they have already been swept away."

"If you send weapons, if you finance the entire annual budget of one of the belligerents, if you promise more and more weapons, more and more modern weapons, then you can say whatever you want. No matter what you say, you are in the war," he said.
 

GnauzBookOfRhymes

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What is the thesis for the current map to change? The only thing IMO that could significantly change the calculus is Putin dying and the resulting political upheaval bringing about a wholesale change in Russian interests in imperialism etc. But everything we seem to know about the Russian political elite suggests that the military and security services are unlikely to change course on Ukraine, especially bc of sunk costs etc. Another possibility is some catastrophic event (military/mass casualty terrorist/electronic warfare/economic/protest/political scandal) in Moscow that people believe is somehow directly tied to the war or exposes some massive lie or hidden reality for which they blame Putin. Might be a 1/1000 chance but think about something like a recording/video made in early stages of the war where Putin and Co., speak nonchalantly about being willing to sacrifice as many Russian men/women/children to gain one inch of Ukrainian soil. Some truly off the wall shyt that shocks the conscience of the entire country and world. Outside of something like that, 2024 will be exactly like 2023 and 2025 will be exactly like 2024.

I think Biden will win another term, so at least for the next 4 yrs Ukraine will have a real ally in the oval office. Whatever happens with Congress that is still a huge advantage bc he will be able to influence the Europeans and even if it takes political capital it seems like Biden is in for the long haul. Probably sees this as a legacy issue as well. The problem is that as we know, 2nd term presidents become lame duck pretty early on. By the time 2026 rolls around, we're already going to be talking about who is next and they will have to start putting forth their own Russia/Ukraine policy. If they signal that they're not as committed as Biden, that will be problematic for Ukraine.
 

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