Russia's Invasion of Ukraine (Official Thread)

[Micky Mikey]

/I'm still monitoring the whole China question a lot, I feel like that's the most terrifying prospect right now. If China actually chooses to arm Russia in any visible way, it could prove difficult for Ukraine to ever expel Russia militarily. Since Russia has over 3x the population and doesn't have to deal with a refugee situation, they're more likely to win a war of straight attrition, or at least make it even more horrifying for the Ukrainian people on the way there.

USA and EU have threatened China so much over it that you have to question, why would they even consider doing it? What do they have to gain? It's not like Russia has much to offer them, and Russia is desperate for trade partners so they have no way to threaten them. So it would seem they have a ton more to lose from US/EU sanctions than to gain from whatever Russia offers. You figure the only reason they would do that would be if they wished to weaken/deplete the West in some serious manner. And that would likely only work in the short term. So why would China want to weaken/deplete the West in the short term? I can't come up with very happy answers.

Anyone heard/have an alternate take on it? Why would China even consider sending Russia weapons, knowing how strong the response will be. Do they just assume they're too big to fail and that the West wouldn't dare sanction them?

 

[Piff Perkins]

I want to preface this by saying I am not a Lex Fridman fan, and the video is a perfect example of why. I was watching an interview of Stephan Kotkin on Stalin and saw this vid recommended next. Figured why not check it out since Kotkin is a noteworthy historian but I have never listened to him discuss modern events.


The intro to the video is like a perfect example of modern brain worms you see from online discourse. He compares Russia and Ukraine, claims both countries and their leaders may dislike him due to the content of his recent videos (examining the war from "both sides") and that he will visit both countries but fears he could be arrested in either. Later on there's this very odd exchange where he again tries to both sides an issue, this time historical, And when pressed with the idea that "freedom" is better than non-freedom he literally says "but Hitler would say he was fighting for freedom too." This is where we are as a society. There are no facts. There are no intellectual guidelines. Everything is an opinion, no opinion is false, and every opinion should be entertained. Including Nazis (Kanye interview).

If you cannot agree to a set of facts, or a set of sources, you have chaos. And I don't think it's a coincidence that all the people who play this game (Joe Rogan, Fridman, etc) have no issue sympathizing with Putin and have no issue talking to racists or Nazi sympathizers. Nor is it a coincidence their reaction to racial IQ arguments is not "jeez this is racist" but instead "well because this information is being stifled it must be worth examining."

I know this doesn't have much to do with the current situation in Ukraine but I figured I'd put it here. We're witnessing the intellectual equivalent of a path/platform being built for unabashed racists because people's brains are so broken they can't comprehend that somethings are good and some things are...bad.

 

[Mister Terrific]

Do you know how many people Ukrainian lost everyday defending this small city?
Prigozhin throwing their condemned prisoners and scums of societies (murderers, rapists, robbers, drug dealers) to this meat grinder while Ukrainians throwing their regular infantry.

The Wagner soldiers have accomplished more in 3 months with human wave tactics than the regular Russian army has accomplished in 12. That’s not the win you think it is.

I'm not Putinist, I don't think Putin is a good wartime leader and I think he's half-assing this war. I don't mind if he got replaced by Prigozhin or Kadyrov.


Just another case of US making shyt up

Russia doesn’t have the population, demographics, economy nor military hardware to full ass a war. What you see is what you get. Never mind that if Russia escalates the west escalates as to why they are hesitant to use cruise missiles in Ukraine because they know the west will give Ukraine long range weaponry and then you start seeing Moscow square burning.


Putin is the only leader holding Russia together. My nicca said Kadyrov

 

[☑︎#VoteDemocrat]

 

[☑︎#VoteDemocrat]

/I'm still monitoring the whole China question a lot, I feel like that's the most terrifying prospect right now. If China actually chooses to arm Russia in any visible way, it could prove difficult for Ukraine to ever expel Russia militarily. Since Russia has over 3x the population and doesn't have to deal with a refugee situation, they're more likely to win a war of straight attrition, or at least make it even more horrifying for the Ukrainian people on the way there.

USA and EU have threatened China so much over it that you have to question, why would they even consider doing it? What do they have to gain? It's not like Russia has much to offer them, and Russia is desperate for trade partners so they have no way to threaten them. So it would seem they have a ton more to lose from US/EU sanctions than to gain from whatever Russia offers. You figure the only reason they would do that would be if they wished to weaken/deplete the West in some serious manner. And that would likely only work in the short term. So why would China want to weaken/deplete the West in the short term? I can't come up with very happy answers.

Anyone heard/have an alternate take on it? Why would China even consider sending Russia weapons, knowing how strong the response will be. Do they just assume they're too big to fail and that the West wouldn't dare sanction them?

The USA literally begged Putin not to invade. Sent the CIA director to Moscow and everything. Didn’t work.

Surely China can’t be this stupid.

 

[☑︎#VoteDemocrat]

But the USA isn't getting bloody or exhausted. It's just using up some military hardware. Are they hoping for Russia to take Ukraine and then put more permanent pressure on NATO?

It’s funny seeing people worried the USA strategic stockpiles being exhausted. Like Jesus Christ. Were sending stuff that was about to expire. This was a godsend for the military.

 

[☑︎#VoteDemocrat]

Pretty sure if you interview all family of US veterans of Afghanistan and Iraq you'll find the same stories


I admit I kinda wishing it for the lulz. Imagining Kadyrov declaring Jihad on the West with Russia's nuclear arsenal on his disposal kinda hilarious. Kadyrov might not be military genius and a Muslim but he kinda understand what many Russian nationalists wish Putin do with this war. If Russia and Europe end up nuking each other there's gonna be lot less white supremacists in this world.

I’d like to see Wagner get the cold shoulder from the kremlin and thus make them an open target for the USA to deal with directly.

 

[Jmare007]

Is there a good/legit article/piece/podcast that explores the organized crime situation after the war. I've read a couple of things but nothing that feels well studied or backed by facts. I know a Russian mob leader shytted on Prigozhin and Kadyrov not long ago though

I want to preface this by saying I am not a Lex Fridman fan, and the video is a perfect example of why. I was watching an interview of Stephan Kotkin on Stalin and saw this vid recommended next. Figured why not check it out since Kotkin is a noteworthy historian but I have never listened to him discuss modern events.


The intro to the video is like a perfect example of modern brain worms you see from online discourse. He compares Russia and Ukraine, claims both countries and their leaders may dislike him due to the content of his recent videos (examining the war from "both sides") and that he will visit both countries but fears he could be arrested in either. Later on there's this very odd exchange where he again tries to both sides an issue, this time historical, And when pressed with the idea that "freedom" is better than non-freedom he literally says "but Hitler would say he was fighting for freedom too." This is where we are as a society. There are no facts. There are no intellectual guidelines. Everything is an opinion, no opinion is false, and every opinion should be entertained. Including Nazis (Kanye interview).

If you cannot agree to a set of facts, or a set of sources, you have chaos. And I don't think it's a coincidence that all the people who play this game (Joe Rogan, Fridman, etc) have no issue sympathizing with Putin and have no issue talking to racists or Nazi sympathizers. Nor is it a coincidence their reaction to racial IQ arguments is not "jeez this is racist" but instead "well because this information is being stifled it must be worth examining."

I know this doesn't have much to do with the current situation in Ukraine but I figured I'd put it here. We're witnessing the intellectual equivalent of a path/platform being built for unabashed racists because people's brains are so broken they can't comprehend that somethings are good and some things are...bad.

Initially I liked Lex because he felt like a good faith (way more naive) version, and a much better prepared interviewer, of the Joe Rogan circle of "podcasters that get good guests" but unless he's talking to a scientist, it's become impossible to listen to him become just another Rogan. And he doesn't even get that many interesting guests anymore either.

And yeah, it's really fukked up how we are heading to a "there's no bad, there's just different sides of what good is" mentality that I hope starts getting a real backlash soon. There's no point in analyzing the "other side" when you refuse to draw any line and conclusion at the end of the analysis...and they don't do it because they'll lose 70% of their audience.

 

[Marlow Stanfield]

Pretty sure if you interview all family of US veterans of Afghanistan and Iraq you'll find the same stories


I admit I kinda wishing it for the lulz. Imagining Kadyrov declaring Jihad on the West with Russia's nuclear arsenal at his disposal kinda hilarious. Kadyrov might not be military genius and a Muslim but he kinda understand what many Russian nationalists wish Putin do with this war. If Russia and Europe end up nuking each other there's gonna be lot less white supremacists in this world.

Hate to break it to you, but all reports indicate that your boy Kadyrov is on his death bed with kidney failure. He's even flying out a doctor from UAE because he know Putin got the knives out for him.

As for the rest, the Ukrainians receive NATO Intel in real time. They know the situation in Bahkmut and will pull out at the right time. They have already pulled several reconnaissance units from the city.

Meanwhile, reserve units are buying more time by pushing the Russians in the south and north of the city. The Ukrainians won't pull out until the last possible second.

 

[Marlow Stanfield]

This is not smart strategy by the Russians. But time will prove that.

 

[Chronic]

Hate to break it to you, but all reports indicate that your boy Kadyrov is on his death bed with kidney failure. He's even flying out a doctor from UAE because he know Putin got the knives out for him.

As for the rest, the Ukrainians receive NATO Intel in real time. They know the situation in Bahkmut and will pull out at the right time. They have already pulled several reconnaissance units from the city.

Meanwhile, reserve units are buying more time by pushing the Russians in the south and north of the city. The Ukrainians won't pull out until the last possible second.

I know, I don't seriously believe he could replace Putin anyway. I heard Prigozhin got Intel from Chinese satellite company so if China decided to support Russia with more Intel they could cause problems for Ukraine.

This is not smart strategy by the Russians. But time will prove that.

US never had problem destroying cities to achieve victory. If US and China go to war they'll find a way to justify destroying Chinese cities.

 

[Techniec]

I won't lie this shyt made me emotional...i got a lil girl myself...

I'm team fukk the legacy of the Russian Empire all day, but I feel sorry as fukk for the average Russian schmuck, I'm not talking Wagner scum, I mean this run of the mil Olegs and Ivan's, they don't know better,

 

[Marlow Stanfield]

I know, I don't seriously believe he could replace Putin anyway. I heard Prigozhin got Intel from Chinese satellite company so if China decided to support Russia with more Intel they could cause problems for Ukraine.



US never had problem destroying cities to achieve victory. If US and China go to war they'll find a way to justify destroying Chinese cities.

And yet, with all of that intel, they're still bleeding troops at a 7:1 ratio with Ukraine.

As for destroying cities...

The key to this strategy is to eliminate defensive positions and potential defensive positions of the enemy. Aside from the humanitarian issues, the strategy works if, and only if, the attacking side has the plan and logistics to capture and hold beyond that point.

The Russians have shown their lines are heavily susceptible to counter offensives. By leveling cities, the Russians ensure they don't have a fall back point, causing them to give up more territory in the event of a retreat. During the Kherson offensive last fall, the Russians couldn't run away fast enough. Many were killed while retreating. Without the ability to set up defensive positions within the cities they capture, they will have to rely on trenches and dirt mounds, which fall quickly under Ukrainian attack.

TL;DR - By leveling cities, the Russians stretch the no-mans land which put them at a disadvantage in the event of retreat.

 

[Chronic]

And yet, with all of that intel, they're still bleeding troops at a 7:1 ratio with Ukraine.

As for destroying cities...

The key to this strategy is to eliminate defensive positions and potential defensive positions of the enemy. Aside from the humanitarian issues, the strategy works if, and only if, the attacking side has the plan and logistics to capture and hold beyond that point.

The Russians have shown their lines are heavily susceptible to counter offensives. By leveling cities, the Russians ensure they don't have a fall back point, causing them to give up more territory in the event of a retreat. During the Kherson offensive last fall, the Russians couldn't run away fast enough. Many were killed while retreating. Without the ability to set up defensive positions within the cities they capture, they will have to rely on trenches and dirt mounds, which fall quickly under Ukrainian attack.

TL;DR - By leveling cities, the Russians stretch the no-mans land which put them at a disadvantage in the event of retreat.

Can you quote sources that didn't use Ukrainian Government's claims? Even big Ukrainian cheerleader like Julian Ropcke didn't buy their claimed Russian casualty figures. The real figure probably closer to 2:1 to 3:1 with most of Russian casualties are in the penal units.

 

[☑︎#VoteDemocrat]

For all the talk about Afghanistan, it says more about the taliban than it does the us military.