Maybe this new offensive fixes all of Russia's problems (logistics, morale, skill sets, etc) and works. But the more likely option has to be that it will either fail or stalemate. At which point they're fukked again. There will be more weapons pumped into Ukraine, Europe will be further emboldened to send more lethal shyt etc etc. A second failure would put Putin in a bad spot, and then you gotta wonder about another mobilization and what that could do to the country politically.
Theres like a 10 to 20 percent chance it works according to western sources, the russians themselves are betting everything on it and arent even hiding that they're throwing much more than the 300k that was mobilized at this. But what good is 500,000 troops when youve gotta get all the armor out of stock and that shyt is probably rusty and fukked up? Theyre learning from their mistakes but I dont see them getting past a stalemate. The Z mil bloggers are getting more open in admitting just how fukked they are, but its the only way to get a look into how Ukraine is taking losses cause we never get talked to about that. Russias lost about 180,000 people, Ukrain is said to have lost 110 to 120,000. The Orcs dont care about replacing those bodies but the losses in tanks gotta be hurting them. Id be genuinely surprised if they try to push for Kiev again but who knows wtf Belarus is gonna do, thats the wild card to me. If they allow the Ruskies to use them as a springboard again Ukraine should just preemptively strike the fukk out of them