yesterday Budanov (Ukr counter-intelligence chief) announced a coming Ukrainian spring offensive, he was the one who last May had announced the Kherson counterattack (even dating it for August) and a Russian defeat, which actually happened.
If Crimea is the endgame as Zelensky has repeatedly said, then this spring offensive should look like this: A feint attack in the LPR (Svatovo-Kremennaya-Lysychansk) direction, then the actual main blow in the Zaporozhye-Melitopol-Berdyansk front, to 1) reach Azov sea and cut the Russian southern corridor in two, 2) bring Kerch bridge within range of HIMARS so it becomes cooked (so then the "endgame" Ukrainian offensive for Crimea itself becomes possible for late 2023).
while I'm usually hesitant to take the neocon-Ukrotriumphalist narratives seriously, this time I tend to be convinced that this coming Ukrainian offensive has over 90% chance of success for the following reasons:
-shortage in Russian artillery as Prigozhin admitted (or pretended to admit for deception reasons?) yesterday + shortage in Russian armor. Remember that at the time of Kherson-Kharkov counterattacks, Russia still had a significant overall arty advantage, now it's close to parity
-American satelites over entire front giving intel to Ukraine so Russian maskirovka is not an option (lots of room for Ukrainian maskirovka on the other hand)
-new American and French tanks for AFU in the spring (I can't really say I have any trust in Bradleys tho)
-Ukrainian advantage in manpower despite Russian mobilization
-logistically still overextended Russian front despite mobilization (plus Russian supply lines in the Zaporozhye-Melitopol-Berdyansk area being targeted by HIMARS already)
I hardly see how Ukraine can fail in this, if it won in Kherson and Kharkov against a still - at that time - stronger Russia. I call a 90% chance that in May or June the red part of the map will be only Crimea and the Donbass.
