6 months imo.
even if you take ammo out of the equation, all of those mobile artillery units need regular maintenance and they aint getting it.
soon they will also be running out of things to shoot with as well...
meanwhile the West is pumping everything they can into Ukraine.
yeah, 6 months sounds like about how long it will take for Russia to openly
this ain't 1942, Russia does not have the ability to manufacture it's way out of this.
the only reason the other two ships of the same class ain't sunk is because they can't get to the Black Sea.
just wait till that next round of equipment and training hit the scene.
i predict Ukraine going on a major offensive in the South and retaking Crimea by October of this year.