Because Josh Smith doesn't take purely nothing but long 2pts...between jumpers and other shots at the rim he takes during the game, he's gonna be at worst somewhere in the mid-low 40s far as fg% goes...right around the same exact percentage from the field Pau is giving us right now
A 10% decline in shooting percentage from midrange from their 3rd option is not gonna cripple the lakers offense
Yes that may be so, but D'Antoni's offense is gonna require him to stretch out the floor and the flow of the offense will be dependent on him hitting that outside shot. A 10% is a considerable drop - if you take into account the domino effect it'll ultimately have on everything else.
The sample size is extremely small this season and Josh Smith is in the midst of a slump that is extremely low for even his standards...both his midrange and ft numbers will be nowhere near that bad as the season goes on...for his career he's a 67% ft shooter...which isn't good, but isn't horrible
The 10% difference from midrange between Pau and Josh (assuming they continue to shoot as many of them per game as they have so far) amounts to
Pau is shooting 5 mid range jumpers per game... 5(.41)= 2.05 made midrange jumpers per game....which adds up to 4.1pts worth of production from his deadly midrange offensive attack
Josh is taking 4.875 mid range jumpers per game, accounting for a 10% decrease...that's 4.875(.31)= 1.511 made jumpers a game...totaling up to 3.022pts per game....
If we're going with the truth is in the numbers argument, that's a whooping 1.078 pts per game difference in their respective midrange games
Then looking at their differences at the rim:
Josh Smith
Rectricted Area: 26-39 (67%)
In the Paint (Non RA): 13-34 (38%)
Pau Gasol
Rectricted Area: 25-40 (63%)
In the Paint (Non RA): 4-22 (18%)
And yes...I am confident, between points from attacking the rim, points in transition, and points saved because Josh Smith is a far better team/help defender, pick and roll defender and defender in transition than Pau...he'd be able to somehow...someway...make up for that 1 point loss from the Pau Gasol midrange game of devastation ...it's the rest of the shots that he takes and makes that ends up making their fg% similar this year and where he makes up the production
Whether his
#s improve drastically is still an unknown quantity. And all hypothetical based on past results that may or may not eventuate or even fall along his own historical curve. For all we know the sample size may be indicate his mid-range game will not alter much throughout season - after all he isn't a competent shooter, doesn't make the correct decisions within the flow of the offense and simply doesn't put up high-probability shots. Like I said earlier, those basic scaling
#s are not gonna tell you the domino effect that it'll have on the game itself. What might seem like x insignificant miss(misses), may have an impact on the flow of the offense; how help-defenders rotate; how his shot-selection affects the offense; how the players defend Smith on the PNP/PNR; their defensive-depth in the lane; how his FT% mixed with Howard's alters play (and the Lakers offense) during stretches and at the end of games etc etc, the variables extend past just '1.078 pts per game'.
Plus I see those at the rim stats (that slightly favor Smith) are only for this sample season and no mention of last season (full):
Smith (2011/2012) = 363 attempts at 68.6%
Gasol (2011/2012) = 300 attempts at 68.7 %
Despite the x-margin between their athleticism and the 'better finishing' tag that Smith seems to have over Gasol - the stats say different. Yes the attempt difference has an effect on the lower% outsides shots that they both take - however, Gasol is
'more efficient' from every area on the floor.
And yes, the same variables are there with Pau too - how many points he costs on the opposite end of the court/lack of athleticism and how it overall impacts the game as well. But there's not enough projection-data to suggest the Lakers will have a greater chance with Smith, simply because we don't know how successful this team will be with Pau and what a new-offense + superstar big-man will do for his game and the contrast that he'll bring to the team. Just like we won't be able to work out the equation that entails a endless run of variables that involve Smith either and if his season with the Hawk's will have any bearing in comparison to Pau's season for the Lakers, at this moment in time. Plus we don't have anything to weigh Gasol's intangibles either (Kobe-chemistry, Nash formation and championship-exp), that'll come into play all throughout the season.
In reality, the lakers are gonna have this problem...and have had this problem all year WITH Pau already regardless....Pau IS NOT a stretch 4...teams have been having Pau's man help off of him and strip Dwight of the ball as soon as he gets it all season...part of the reason he's averaging so many turnovers....pau standing in the high post, threatening that slow ass jumper of his that he only takes if you basically beg him is not stretching the floor...the suns let him get a couple last night, made the adjustment of simply running out to him before decides no one is coming to contest..he swings the ball...and he was a non factor damn near the rest of the game ...to space the floor like D'Antoni likes to in his system, you need a big that can hit the three
It's only been a slight problem, more so a growing-pains problem and D'Antoni will no doubt try and smooth out the wrinkles once he gets his feet firmly under the table. It would certainly pale in comparison to the negative impact it would have on spacing if Smith was on the team, that's for sure. The increase in tempo will no doubt aid him throughout the season when it comes to putting up those 16fters. Unless the Lakers are getting Love, there's no reason to suggest D'Antoni will expect Gasol/Smith to stretch the floor out that far on the regular. His system isn't a one size fits all type of matter.
In all reality, Josh Smith makes the lakers offense more dynamic...gives them an open court threat that they do not have currently in the starting line up...another roll man or cutter for nash and kobe...and a slasher when he has the ball...essentially the Suns Era Marion role (who was without question the most underrated piece of that SSOL Suns squad) a 10% decrease that amounts to 1 less point scored from the midrange game is not enough to negate what else josh smith brings to the table ESPECIALLY defensively....someone like Bosh who has great mobility defensively and great on switching and hedging pick rolls and a knock down midrange shooter would be ideal, but short of that Josh Smith is up there with the best fits defensively you can imagine...him and dwight once he's completely healthy equal likely the best defensive front court in basketball
More dynamic athletically, yeah - but with Gasol the Lakers offense will have more versatility in where they can place him on the floor and what he can offer the team.
There are only two things not sensible about this trade, and neither of them have to do with whether it makes the team better on the floor in the present....one, apparently they waited too long to do it...pau's trade level has fallen too low, and ATL flat out won't make it now...at least not without the help of a third team...or they flat out want to resign josh...whatever, they may not want to make it happen....and secondly assuming you could get ATL to push the button, acquiring josh smith who's in the last year of his deal opens up the question of what to do with him in the summer...resigning him kills the 2014 plan the lakers front office seems to have in place...me personally, I'd lean towards fukk all that...move pau and try to go all in this season...if they win, fukk it...resign him
But sensible in the context of actually on the court? shiiiiit....I would've done it this summer with Mike Brown coaching, but I understand people who think Pau fits better in a more methodical slow down structured offense like the princeton or the triangle had Phil came back....but once they made the decision to bring in D'Antoni, talking about he wants to make showtime 2.0 and run an uptempo system that in it's best incarnation didn't even have ONE true center...but expects to do it now with TWO...you mean to tell me that with this team's two biggest weaknesses being a lack of athleticism, transition and pick and roll defense, depth and 3pt shooting...and with D'Antoni wanting to an uptempo offense with one of the slower front courts in the league....you have a hypothetical trade for one of the most athletic and defensively talented 4s in the game and a 3pt specialist in Korver and it's not "sensible" because of the prospect of Dantoni trying to turn a 33 year old Pau Gasol into a updated version of a 23 year old Boris fukking Diaw . .... come on, give me Josh Smith....when the playoffs come around it's more sensible to have Pau defending westbrook in pick and roll situations or guarding lebron and trying to close out on Battier corner 3s..things he's among the worst in the league at...instead of Josh Smith, arguably the best in the at those things...because that missing one point of midrange production would destroy the very fabric of the team?
If the window of this team was longer (Nash and Kobe were younger) - I'd be more inclined to trade Pau right now. But it isn't, what the current Lakers have right now is only this season. All things considered - Pau is the better option and Smith certainly isn't a sure-enough case to outweigh him. It ain't about turning Gasol into a 23 year old Diaw, I don't know how you came to that conclusion, I never once alluded to him turning into Benjamin Button. It's the similar skillset that Gasol and Diaw both possess and how D'Antoni may use him as a blueprint when working out Pau's role in the offense. And all the lil' detailing outside of the boxscore that Pau can bring.
You don't have to argue Smith's case in terms of his defense, I've already weighed that up. I've already taken into account how the Lakers would 'benefit' from an outside defender aiding Nash in any way possible defensively and everything in between.
Family, Pau has been absolutely terrible the last two playoffs...don't even have to go into the end result and assigning blame and all that...cause even if the lakers had somehow went on to win despite Pau giving them jack shyt, I'd be saying the same thing....for his part, he was garbage...you can't get his actual value out of him as a 4 offensively, and defensively he kills you...right now, at this very moment Pau is giving this team considerably less value than Odom was during the last 2 championships (slightly more on offense, but decidedly less on defense)...but making 19million dollars.....truth be told, that's the biggest flaw in this current laker team...swapping pau out for smith gives them a way to get more return on that money
Pau wasn't even the biggest problem (PG playmaking and playcalling), this problematic tag that seems to run parallel to his name is only magnified (lack of heart and inconsistency on defense) because he got turn't out due to Bynum being a main-fixture at the 5 and their inability to play together. Plus the fact the pushing of his name in 80% of trade rumors; not excuses but they had their fair share of input into Pau's performance. Like I've said earlier there's not enough concrete weight (as much as there can be) to tip the scale in favor of Smith in this situation: with his constant inconsistent play; fading in and out of games on both sides of the ball; not sticking to the structure of the offense; the juxtapose of Pau being a blackhole on offense; inability to play a certain role in a team (not good enough for
#1 option and too commanding with touches for a
#3 option); little to no history of playing up to standard in big games.
Lakers have to get it right this season, they can't use the season as a dress-rehearsal for the next one. They'll benefit having Pau's controlled and experienced play during the slow-roll of playoff series' where games get tight down the stretch and plays need to be made in a slowed-down offense (interior passing, high/low = face/post). As opposed to Smith who is the polar opposite, and that's not saying D'Antoni won't be able to harness some of his pre-actions, but as of right now - this is where they both stand. Plus if Howard is either injured or fouled-out, Pau has the advantage of filling that center-void; something that Smith isn't capable of doing.
Josh Smith ain't lockin' down KD or Bron anyways.
