BOSTON — Joe Mazzulla respects the numbers.
It’s part of the reason why he loves 3-point attempts. Part of the reason why he doesn’t sound overly concerned about the
Celtics’ struggling defense. Part of the reason, surely, that he has the job he does under the analytically minded Brad Stevens.
“I like math,” Mazzulla said Sunday after the Celtics beat the
Wizards, 112-94.
Though they have been inconsistent early in this young season, especially on defense, Mazzulla must be pleased by how his team has bent the math in its favor so far. At both ends of the court, the Celtics have typically gotten (or given up) the right types of shots, an early sign that they’re on the right path after six games. At some point, the 22nd-ranked Celtics will need to climb up the leaderboard for defensive rating, but Mazzulla sounds confident that type of development will eventually come as long as his team continues taking away the highest-percentage looks. As he pointed out, Boston’s defensive shot profile (based on the location of shots allowed) has actually been far more promising than the team’s early-season defensive rating would suggest.
“I’m not as concerned with the defense,” Mazzulla said. “We’re fourth in shot-selection defense and we’re last in midrange points per shot and we’re first in midrange frequency. So some of the stuff we just have to do a little bit better job.”
The Celtics were fourth in shot-selection defense entering their win against Washington but actually jumped to first after taking apart the Wizards offense, according to Cleaning the Glass. That means Boston has done an elite job of forcing opponents into areas that typically produce the lowest field goal percentages — and, conversely, of limiting attempts from the highest-percentage zones. The Celtics have ranked second in preventing corner 3-point attempts, fourth in preventing attempts at the rim and fourth in preventing 3-point attempts overall. They have led the league in forcing long midrange attempts, typically the least efficient shots in basketball, and overall midrange attempts, which are also relatively inefficient. Over a large sample size, a defensive shot profile like that should be expected to produce a stingy defense, especially with the talent the Celtics boast.
Such results haven’t been there for Boston so far. Prior to holding the Wizards to 38.8 percent shooting, the Celtics had allowed at least 120 points in three straight games. They were roasted in Chicago after building a big lead. They surrendered 41 points apiece to teammates
Donovan Mitchell and
Caris LeVert while failing to hold on to another double-digit advantage against
Cleveland. The
Magic, who haven’t scored more than 113 points in any other game, hung 120 points on the Celtics last weekend.
“Joe’s been putting a lot of emphasis on our defense, on the defensive end,” said
Malcolm Brogdon. “Just really being connected. We have spurts of good defense, we’ll have a really great quarter. Then we’ll have a quarter where we have a letdown where we allow a lot of points in the quarter. So it’s really about putting those spurts together and being connected and playing defense.”
And, while doing all of that, continuing to funnel the ball to the right areas. Over the long run, the Celtics should benefit from the types of shots they’re making opponents take. At the other end of the court, Boston has had a similarly impressive start from a shot-quality standpoint. The Celtics rank fifth so far in offensive location effective field goal percentage, making them the only team in the top five on both ends of the court.
Sunday’s game against the Wizards provided another example of how Mazzulla’s team has given itself a math advantage early in the season. The Celtics took only three long midrange shots while forcing 23. They created 47 3-point attempts (with nine corner 3-point attempts) compared to 32 (and one) for the Wizards. Mazzulla, noted math fan that he is, understands three is greater than two. His Celtics lead the league in 3-point attempts per 100 possessions. They have taken about 10 3-pointers per game more than their opponents.
“I love open 3s,” Mazzulla said. “I like space. And I think it’s a huge strength of our team. So the thing we have to learn on the offensive end is exactly what you said, just making sure we’re getting the best actual shot every time down. And regardless of if it goes in or not, it’s a good shot.”
Because math says it is. In a sign of how much the offense has grown, only 6.3 percent of Celtics shot attempts have come from the long midrange so far (the league average is 9.6 percent), according to Cleaning the Glass. Only the
Mavericks have taken a smaller percentage of overall shots from the midrange. Boston still hasn’t been great at producing layups and dunks but has otherwise built a potent shot profile.
The Celtics still have some real issues they need to work through.
Luke Kornet appears to be gaining ground in the competition for backup center minutes, but Mazzulla is still figuring out the frontcourt rotation behind
Al Horford. Defensive rebounding has been a problem in several games. That’s one downside of playing smaller lineups after overwhelming teams with size and physicality last season. Robert Williams’ absence has been felt on the glass. The Wizards were able to stay moderately close in the first half thanks to 11 offensive rebounds before halftime. Mazzulla knows his team needs to stay focused on holding opponents to one shot. He believes the Celtics have played hard all season but need sharper defensive execution.
“I saw the same effort (against Washington) that we’ve had the first however many games we’ve played,” Mazzulla said. “And I saw a commitment to the details and a commitment to the execution on every possession like I told you about before the game. Our guys are always going to play hard. We just have to continue to execute and be detailed and more (consistent) — and we were (against the Wizards).”
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