Random NBA Observations 2020 - 2021
- Thread starter Big Jo
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Eight NBA tiers: Rating all 30 teams, from top to bottom
It's time for another preseason tradition: breaking 30 NBA teams into tiers. Grouping teams -- as opposed to 1-30 power rankings -- nudges you to consider the league holistically. It forces difficult choices, even if you know the boundaries between tiers are fluid (and that you will be wrong): Why is Team X in the inner circle of contenders, but almost-equal-on-paper Team Y one tier lower?
The order within tiers does not matter.
Tier of their own: Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers got better, and that was the case before Talen Horton-Tucker destroyed the preseason. He gives the Lakers more perimeter depth around LeBron James and Anthony Davis -- ballast for lethal Davis-at-center lineups -- than they had in the Florida bubble.
Their bigger lineups will blot out the rim as they did last season, only they now feature a center in Marc Gasol who shoots 3s and remains one of the best big man passers in history. A tall human who lofts entry passes unbothered, flicks lobs, and picks out cutters is an incredible luxury for a team with James and Davis.
Dennis Schroder provides needed perimeter shot creation. Schroder and Montrezl Harrell will wreck opposing bench units, and prop up the offense when Davis and James need breaks during a compressed season. The Lakers won't be as reliant on Harrell as the Clippers were if they run into a postseason matchup that troubles him.
Given how last season's alleged co-favorites fell on their faces, no one else deserves membership here. Those teams crumbled under postseason pressure and the strangeness of the bubble. The Lakers rose up. They are undisputed favorites.
Real challengers
LA Clippers
Milwaukee Bucks
Miami Heat
Brooklyn Nets
Denver Nuggets
The boundary between this tier and the next one down is the fuzziest. There will be an interloper from below. Several teams in these next two groupings are well-positioned to make a league-shaking deal for James Harden.
Having two elite players who can create their own shots is a game-changer in the postseason -- especially if at least one is an apex predator wing or someone even bigger.
• Denver and Brooklyn check that box with the Kyrie Irving/Kevin Durant and Jamal Murray/Nikola Jokic duos. It would be nice if regular-season Murray approximated postseason Murray, but it doesn't matter as long as postseason Murray erupts.
It's fair to question both defenses. The Nuggets are building around three average or worse defenders in Murray, Jokic and Michael Porter Jr. Jerami Grant, their answer to wings who rule the playoffs, is now in Detroit. Denver's defensive metrics have fluctuated wildly over three seasons, in part because the Nuggets allow lots of 3s -- leaving them somewhat dependent on luck.
But Grant looked like an answer to LeBron, Kawhi Leonard, and Luka Doncic only in comparison to the rest of Denver's roster. He didn't do much to deter the league's best players because no one does. He doesn't rebound at all.
The Nuggets can keep two of Gary Harris, Will Barton, Paul Millsap, JaMychal Green, and PJ Dozier on the floor with the Murray/Jokic/Porter trio. Murray has gotten better on defense, and that should continue. Porter didn't look as lost after Game 4 of Denver's first-round series against the Utah Jazz; he doesn't project as a plus defender, but he should improve with time. He is a massive rebounder on the wing. Denver played stingy defense with Porter on the floor over the last three games of the Utah series and their second-round triumph over the Clippers.
Porter will slide to power forward some, and that will really test Denver's defense. But the Nuggets will be impossible to guard. Their scoring numbers with Murray, Jokic, and Porter on the floor last season were ridiculous, and Porter is only scratching the surface of what he can do as a jack-of-all trades -- cutting, crashing the boards, ducking in for post-ups, and roasting dudes one-on-one.
The Nuggets have new options at backup center; Isaiah Hartenstein has looked good in preseason, and Denver can use Millsap and Green there -- or play them together. Multiple point guard lineups with two of Murray, Monte Morris, and the delightful Facundo Campazzo will have defenses spinning.
• Depending how often Jeff Green and Taurean Prince crack Brooklyn's crunch-time rotation, the Nets could trend small around Durant and their two-headed center. But Jarrett Allen is only 22, with potential as a legit backstop. The Nets have a ton of varied perimeter depth, giving Steve Nash lots of options.
Different lineups might require different defensive schemes for Brooklyn to get enough stops. That's challenging for coaches and players. I'm bullish Nash can steer these guys through chemistry issues. He has tried to sell Caris LeVert on a Manu Ginobili-style "bench star" role, and LeVert might appreciate those chances to run the show. If Durant is 90 percent of what he was -- early returns are encouraging -- the Nets have the upside to reach the NBA Finals.
• I've heard all the reasons for Miami skepticism. Jimmy Butler was superhuman in the postseason. He went 15-of-43 on 3s after hitting just 29-of-119 in the regular season. The Heat went an unlikely 11-3 in playoff games in which the score was within five points during the last five minutes.
Goran Dragic regained All-Star form as a bubble starter. He is 34 and coming of a foot injury; can he do it again? The Heat rode a preposterous Jae Crowder hot streak through the early part of the conference finals against Boston; Crowder is now in Phoenix, and his positional replacement, Maurice Harkless, is a reluctant and less accurate shooter.
Miami doesn't feature that second superstar scorer. But Bam Adebayo's passing and the dizzying movement of Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson almost combine to form one such player. It is an offense unto itself.
All three of those guys are early in their development, and should get better -- including on defense. Herro and Robinson are weak defensive links in some lineups, but marginal improvement from weak links can matter.
Avery Bradley can chase point guards, a trouble spot for Miami last season. If he hits enough catch-and-shoot 3s -- Bradley has drained between 35% and 41% of those looks in six straight seasons -- Erik Spoelstra has more late-game flexibility. The Heat should get more from Kendrick Nunn than he provided in the bubble.
Miami went 12-3 against the East in the playoffs. They were the only postseason team to take more than one game from the Lakers, and they did so despite injuries to two of their three best players. The Heat can make the Finals again. If they don't, it will not be because the bubble was a fluke. The top of the East is good. Making the Finals is hard.
• The Clippers and the Bucks mended some of the issues that undid them in the playoffs. Luke Kennard provides Los Angeles an extra dose of ballhandling, but he isn't the dynamic north-south engine they lacked -- and perhaps isn't ready to defend in crunch time at the highest levels.
Serge Ibaka fills the roster void LA felt most acutely against Jokic: 3-point shooting center who can defend in space and protect the basket. Ibaka has grown into a calmer, more sophisticated offensive player, at ease making high-speed reads with the game swirling around him.
• Milwaukee found a third lock for its closing five in Jrue Holiday, who forms a formidable trio with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton. Holiday provides more knifing pick-and-roll verve than George Hill and steadier shooting than Eric Bledsoe. Expect the Bucks to lean hard into the Holiday-Antetokounmpo pick-and-roll. They needed another consistent method of unleashing Antetokounmpo as screen-and-dive fiend.
Holiday on defense is ultra-switchable, something the Bucks have not done much under Mike Budenholzer. Milwaukee has already tweaked the spacing in its half-court offense in preseason games, and Budenholzer should coach this season more with playoff adaptability in mind.
The other two closing spots are up for grabs to some degree. Most of Milwaukee's new reserves are liabilities on one end of the floor.
Donte DiVincenzo and Brook Lopez -- the other two starters -- are the likeliest candidates, though defenses will let them fire 3s until they prove reliable threats. Opponents will test Holiday's jumper too, including by going under Antetokounmpo's picks for him. Has Antetokounmpo honed his post game enough to be a crunch-time weapon? Does he have a floater?
We will learn about the fiber of both teams. Antetokounmpo signing the supermax lifted some tension, but Milwaukee's holdover players and coaches must feel the weight of past postseason disappointments.
On paper, the Clippers are still the Lakers' biggest threat -- maybe their equal. Did last season's humiliation break LA's confidence, or galvanize them for a revenge tour? Can they compartmentalize it -- convince themselves it was about the exigencies of the bubble, last season's internal discord, whatever -- repress it, and move forward without it lingering? We won't know until someone tests them.
Prove you belong one tier up
Philadelphia 76ers
Boston Celtics
Dallas Mavericks
Utah Jazz
Portland Trail Blazers
At least one of these teams will bust into the above tier, and perhaps replace someone there.
• I might be shortchanging the Celtics despite pangs of doubt. They made the conference finals in three of the past four seasons. The foursome that got them there in the bubble -- Marcus Smart, Kemba Walker, Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown -- remains. They bolstered their center rotation.
But Walker's knee is a problem, at least for now. Their depth at both forward spots is shaky with Gordon Hayward gone. Romeo Langford is hurt.
Their margin for error and injury is thin. Their presumptive healthy starting five -- that foursome above, plus Daniel Theis -- trudged through mostly behind ultra-stingy defense. They scored at a mediocre rate, and they might be short of shot creation (after Tatum) unless Walker returns to form. And even then, the playoffs are tough on the 6-foot-and-below set.
Hayward's secondary playmaking came to feel essential by the early stages of the conference finals against Miami. Brown is stilted creating in the half-court; he has another level to reach as a playmaker, but Boston needs him to get there fast.
Maybe good health for Walker and another leap from Tatum/Brown make all of this moot.
• Don't suck me in again, Sixers.
Gulp.
Philly could breach the next tier. The Sixers boast two of the league's 10 best defenders; they should have a good defense and perhaps a great one.
With Al Horford gone, Tobias Harris can defend power forwards more; he is better there than chasing wings. Ben Simmons and Danny Green can hound the two most threatening perimeter players, making it easier to hide Seth Curry.
On offense, shooting from Curry and Green is oxygen for Philly's tentpole stars. The Sixers ranked 21st in the percentage of attempts that came from 3-point range last season but sixth in 3-point percentage. They ranked an appalling 24th in their share of shots that came at the basket; getting to the rim was hard with so many bodies in the way. That is a lot of low-hanging fruit to pluck.
Shake Milton looks ready for more. Tyrese Maxey looks ready, period. Matisse Thybulle should get better in Year 2. Dwight Howard is a quality backup.
But again: Who do you trust beyond Joel Embiid to create offense in the muck in the second round of the playoffs? Green and Curry fit well, but let's not go nuts. Curry has mostly been a backup. Green is 33, and might be reaching the "best as a backup" stage of his career.
The bench is so hit or miss.
• I'm higher on Portland than almost every projection system is. If things break right, the Trail Blazers could finish No. 3 or even No. 2 in the West. When Zach Collins returns, the Blazers can flip between bigger lineups and several small-ball looks with Robert Covington at power forward. Terry Stotts has crafted average-or-better defenses from worse rosters.
Their ceiling on defense just isn't super high, and their second offensive engine after Damian Lillard is another small guard in CJ McCollum. Jusuf Nurkic is an underrated offensive cog, but he needs someone to set him up. It's tough sledding against long, physical defenses when all your offense originates from outside the arc.
• Luka Doncic is a classic championship-level No. 1 option: big enough at 6-foot-7 to see over defenses, bully mismatches, and finish everything around the basket.
When healthy, the Mavs will start four wings around Kristaps Porzingis: Doncic, Tim Hardaway Jr., Josh Richardson, and Dorian Finney-Smith. Dallas had the league's best offense last season, and that lineup has the potential to be solid on the other end. When you score like Dallas, solid is enough.
One of those wings -- Hardaway or Richardson -- can play in bench units alongside Trey Burke, Jalen Brunson, Maxi Kleber, and (once Porzingis returns) Dwight Powell. Rick Carlisle can use two of Richardson, Hardaway, and Finney-Smith while Doncic rests if the Mavs need size. He can stagger Doncic and Porzingis, allowing Porzingis to cook against second units. (Porzingis thrived when Doncic missed games last season.) Powell is back as a vertical target for Doncic lobs.
The Mavs are deep, and know who they are. They don't have to spend the first 20 games developing an identity.
They are really close. Their presence here comes down to Porzingis' health and the large drop-off between him and whomever you consider their third best player. Can you bank on Porzingis generating good shots and making quick passes when defenses swarm Doncic?
• I hear Jazz fans screaming: How is Utah below Denver when the Jazz came within one in-and-out Conley trey from upending the Nuggets in the first round?
Fair. Utah has no weak spots in its top eight. The Jazz will play tight defense as long as Rudy Gobert is around, and they brought back Derrick Favors to fortify them when Gobert rests -- and play alongside Gobert in select matchups. The Joe Ingles-Favors pick-and-roll, one of the NBA's secret treasures, will resume carving up opposing benches.
Mitchell cemented his status as a postseason star against Denver. He will continue refining his playmaking. Bojan Bogdanovic averaged 20 points per game as a roving sniper. Mike Conley was finally settling in before the NBA suspended the season; if he picks up there, the combination of Conley's on-ball work, Bogdanovic's ubiquity, and Quin Snyder's motion offense might add up to a facsimile of that second elite scoring option. Maybe this is the year it finally clicks for Utah at the right time.
Maybe. But Utah took a step back on defense last season, and something -- turnovers, heaps of missed 3s, overreliance on Mitchell -- always seems to undo the Jazz's offense when it counts. They appeared to have leaped that hurdle against Denver -- until Game 7, when Utah had nothing beyond Mitchell going one-on-everyone.
Too good for the East play-in
Toronto Raptors
Toronto lost some deep postseason equity when Ibaka and Gasol walked. Still: The No. 6 seed feels like the Raptors' floor. They could finish ahead of one or two of the five East teams listed above, but I'm not sure they have equivalent playoff staying power.
And yet, I feel queasy doubting the five key holdovers. They know how to play together. This feels like the season when OG Anunoby locks everything into place -- including his catch-and-drive game. Fred VanVleet and Pascal Siakam are 26, with room still to grow. If all three improve in ways that boost Toronto's blah half-court offense, the Raptors could reemerge as a dangerous second-round opponent.
Norman Powell is a perfect sixth man, but beyond him, the Raptors are counting on players with limited track records: Terence Davis II (a deserving All-Rookie selection, now facing assault charges), Chris Boucher, Malachi Flynn, Alex Len, the sweet-shooting Matt Thomas, and maybe DeAndre' Bembry.
Given Toronto's player development and Nick Nurse's coaching, one or two of those guys should outperform expectations.
Play-in favorites: West's No. 7
Phoenix Suns
I love Phoenix's starting five. I'm a hair worried about their bench beyond Cameron Johnson and Dario Saric, who killed it as the Suns' backup center in the bubble. Was the Cameron Payne bubble explosion real, or some sort of pandemic hallucination?
The center options beyond Saric are question marks. E'Twaun Moore and Langston Galloway are fine fourth wings, but overtaxed as candidates for third wing status after Devin Booker and Mikal Bridges (assuming Johnson is the backup power forward).
Phoenix can mitigate that by staggering Chris Paul and Booker, and maybe finding ways to play Bridges, Johnson, and Crowder together. Booker is an ascendant star, Paul a flat-out winner. Phoenix could challenge for No. 6 or even No. 5 -- above the play-in -- but I'm not ready to list them ahead of those six more established rivals. They get their own tier.
Philadelphia 76ers
Boston Celtics
Dallas Mavericks
Utah Jazz
Portland Trail Blazers
At least one of these teams will bust into the above tier, and perhaps replace someone there.
• I might be shortchanging the Celtics despite pangs of doubt. They made the conference finals in three of the past four seasons. The foursome that got them there in the bubble -- Marcus Smart, Kemba Walker, Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown -- remains. They bolstered their center rotation.
But Walker's knee is a problem, at least for now. Their depth at both forward spots is shaky with Gordon Hayward gone. Romeo Langford is hurt.
Their margin for error and injury is thin. Their presumptive healthy starting five -- that foursome above, plus Daniel Theis -- trudged through mostly behind ultra-stingy defense. They scored at a mediocre rate, and they might be short of shot creation (after Tatum) unless Walker returns to form. And even then, the playoffs are tough on the 6-foot-and-below set.
Hayward's secondary playmaking came to feel essential by the early stages of the conference finals against Miami. Brown is stilted creating in the half-court; he has another level to reach as a playmaker, but Boston needs him to get there fast.
Maybe good health for Walker and another leap from Tatum/Brown make all of this moot.
• Don't suck me in again, Sixers.
Gulp.
Philly could breach the next tier. The Sixers boast two of the league's 10 best defenders; they should have a good defense and perhaps a great one.
With Al Horford gone, Tobias Harris can defend power forwards more; he is better there than chasing wings. Ben Simmons and Danny Green can hound the two most threatening perimeter players, making it easier to hide Seth Curry.
On offense, shooting from Curry and Green is oxygen for Philly's tentpole stars. The Sixers ranked 21st in the percentage of attempts that came from 3-point range last season but sixth in 3-point percentage. They ranked an appalling 24th in their share of shots that came at the basket; getting to the rim was hard with so many bodies in the way. That is a lot of low-hanging fruit to pluck.
Shake Milton looks ready for more. Tyrese Maxey looks ready, period. Matisse Thybulle should get better in Year 2. Dwight Howard is a quality backup.
But again: Who do you trust beyond Joel Embiid to create offense in the muck in the second round of the playoffs? Green and Curry fit well, but let's not go nuts. Curry has mostly been a backup. Green is 33, and might be reaching the "best as a backup" stage of his career.
The bench is so hit or miss.
• I'm higher on Portland than almost every projection system is. If things break right, the Trail Blazers could finish No. 3 or even No. 2 in the West. When Zach Collins returns, the Blazers can flip between bigger lineups and several small-ball looks with Robert Covington at power forward. Terry Stotts has crafted average-or-better defenses from worse rosters.
Their ceiling on defense just isn't super high, and their second offensive engine after Damian Lillard is another small guard in CJ McCollum. Jusuf Nurkic is an underrated offensive cog, but he needs someone to set him up. It's tough sledding against long, physical defenses when all your offense originates from outside the arc.
• Luka Doncic is a classic championship-level No. 1 option: big enough at 6-foot-7 to see over defenses, bully mismatches, and finish everything around the basket.
When healthy, the Mavs will start four wings around Kristaps Porzingis: Doncic, Tim Hardaway Jr., Josh Richardson, and Dorian Finney-Smith. Dallas had the league's best offense last season, and that lineup has the potential to be solid on the other end. When you score like Dallas, solid is enough.
One of those wings -- Hardaway or Richardson -- can play in bench units alongside Trey Burke, Jalen Brunson, Maxi Kleber, and (once Porzingis returns) Dwight Powell. Rick Carlisle can use two of Richardson, Hardaway, and Finney-Smith while Doncic rests if the Mavs need size. He can stagger Doncic and Porzingis, allowing Porzingis to cook against second units. (Porzingis thrived when Doncic missed games last season.) Powell is back as a vertical target for Doncic lobs.
The Mavs are deep, and know who they are. They don't have to spend the first 20 games developing an identity.
They are really close. Their presence here comes down to Porzingis' health and the large drop-off between him and whomever you consider their third best player. Can you bank on Porzingis generating good shots and making quick passes when defenses swarm Doncic?
• I hear Jazz fans screaming: How is Utah below Denver when the Jazz came within one in-and-out Conley trey from upending the Nuggets in the first round?
Fair. Utah has no weak spots in its top eight. The Jazz will play tight defense as long as Rudy Gobert is around, and they brought back Derrick Favors to fortify them when Gobert rests -- and play alongside Gobert in select matchups. The Joe Ingles-Favors pick-and-roll, one of the NBA's secret treasures, will resume carving up opposing benches.
Mitchell cemented his status as a postseason star against Denver. He will continue refining his playmaking. Bojan Bogdanovic averaged 20 points per game as a roving sniper. Mike Conley was finally settling in before the NBA suspended the season; if he picks up there, the combination of Conley's on-ball work, Bogdanovic's ubiquity, and Quin Snyder's motion offense might add up to a facsimile of that second elite scoring option. Maybe this is the year it finally clicks for Utah at the right time.
Maybe. But Utah took a step back on defense last season, and something -- turnovers, heaps of missed 3s, overreliance on Mitchell -- always seems to undo the Jazz's offense when it counts. They appeared to have leaped that hurdle against Denver -- until Game 7, when Utah had nothing beyond Mitchell going one-on-everyone.
Too good for the East play-in
Toronto Raptors
Toronto lost some deep postseason equity when Ibaka and Gasol walked. Still: The No. 6 seed feels like the Raptors' floor. They could finish ahead of one or two of the five East teams listed above, but I'm not sure they have equivalent playoff staying power.
And yet, I feel queasy doubting the five key holdovers. They know how to play together. This feels like the season when OG Anunoby locks everything into place -- including his catch-and-drive game. Fred VanVleet and Pascal Siakam are 26, with room still to grow. If all three improve in ways that boost Toronto's blah half-court offense, the Raptors could reemerge as a dangerous second-round opponent.
Norman Powell is a perfect sixth man, but beyond him, the Raptors are counting on players with limited track records: Terence Davis II (a deserving All-Rookie selection, now facing assault charges), Chris Boucher, Malachi Flynn, Alex Len, the sweet-shooting Matt Thomas, and maybe DeAndre' Bembry.
Given Toronto's player development and Nick Nurse's coaching, one or two of those guys should outperform expectations.
Play-in favorites: West's No. 7
Phoenix Suns
I love Phoenix's starting five. I'm a hair worried about their bench beyond Cameron Johnson and Dario Saric, who killed it as the Suns' backup center in the bubble. Was the Cameron Payne bubble explosion real, or some sort of pandemic hallucination?
The center options beyond Saric are question marks. E'Twaun Moore and Langston Galloway are fine fourth wings, but overtaxed as candidates for third wing status after Devin Booker and Mikal Bridges (assuming Johnson is the backup power forward).
Phoenix can mitigate that by staggering Chris Paul and Booker, and maybe finding ways to play Bridges, Johnson, and Crowder together. Booker is an ascendant star, Paul a flat-out winner. Phoenix could challenge for No. 6 or even No. 5 -- above the play-in -- but I'm not ready to list them ahead of those six more established rivals. They get their own tier.
Play-in or bust: 7-9 East; 8-10 West
Indiana Pacers
Atlanta Hawks
Washington Wizards
Houston Rockets
Golden State Warriors
New Orleans Pelicans
• I had no clue what to do with Houston. Obviously, the Rockets fall in the event of a Harden trade.
• Indiana has the biggest gripe. The Pacers were the No. 4 seed last year, and Nate Bjorkgren, their new coach, is modernizing their shot selection -- the easiest way to pump up an offense that ranked 19th in points per possession. (Indiana was 29th in 3-point attempt rate last season, ahead of only the Knicks, despite an above-average shooting mark from deep.) The Pacers' roster continuity should help in this strange season.
That said, their projected starting five logged only 86 minutes together due to Victor Oladipo's injury. Oladipo was a shell of himself in those minutes.
There is scary combustibility. Oladipo's free agency hovers. Myles Turner knows Indiana almost traded him, and can't be psyched about being demoted into more of a spot-up role as Domantas Sabonis rises. Jeremy Lamb is out awhile.
Indiana's defense finished sixth in points allowed per possession largely due to icy opponent shooting from every range. The Pacers influenced that, but how much? What if they slip toward No. 10 or so? Regardless: They are favorites for the No. 7 seed, with obvious potential to finish higher.
• Atlanta and Washington must fix awful defenses, but the combination of veteran know-how from new additions and experience for younger players should help both. Also, stakes. Do not underestimate the power of stakes -- of games mattering -- in getting players to try harder at the grimier things.
The Wiz sneakily ranked 11th in defensive efficiency between the Isaiah Thomas trade and the suspension of the season. (A soft schedule helped.) Thomas Bryant made strides in the bubble. Robin Lopez is competent. He and Russell Westbrook will stanch the bleeding on the glass.
If Washington's and Atlanta's defenses are within one or two points allowed per 100 possessions of league average, their offenses should carry them into the play-in.
Westbrook is unstoppable in spread pick-and-roll with a lob-catching screener and three shooters around them. Washington should provide that, at times, though defenses will scrunch in off the ultra-young forward tandem of Deni Avdija and Rui Hachimura.
Bryant is a legit problem rampaging for angry dunks and popping for 3s. Scott Brooks can have one of Westbrook and Bradley Beal on the floor at almost all times to keep things humming.
• I dug into the Hawks on Lowe Post podcast episodes with ESPN's Kevin Arnovitz and their coach, Lloyd Pierce. With some juggling, Pierce can access all kinds of lineups and diversify Atlanta's offense.
Just don't be fooled by the high-wattage names in both places. I've seen some analysts speculate the Wiz might challenge for No. 5 in the East. No way. Defense still matters.
• The Pelicans and Warriors are the league's most confusing teams; I've talked at length about them on multiple recent Lowe Post podcasts.
The raw talent from 1 to 7 on the Pels' roster is playoff caliber. Everyone beyond that is a question mark, though normal development suggests one of their young guys should pop.
The overall fit is dicier. Their projected starting five has precisely one good shooter in Brandon Ingram. Even when they were rolling pre-bubble with Zion Williamson, the Pelicans could not score in the half-court, per Cleaning The Glass. They marauded in transition, but Stan Van Gundy teams rarely play fast. Their pre-bubble resurgence on defense proved a mirage -- the product of (among other things) random frigid opponent 3-point shooting.
But Van Gundy's teams are organized -- on both ends. There will be no more leaky transition defense. The half-court offense should be more calculated: more Ingram flying off screens and then into on-ball actions, more Williamson handling the ball, more artful use of JJ Redikk.
Supernova talent has a way of vaporizing fit concerns. Williamson is a supernova talent -- if he is healthy and in shape. Ingram is not quite that, but he is really good -- and (having interviewed him recently) incredibly confident in what is to come.
• I have the same nausea in my stomach about the Warriors as I did before last season, when I picked them to miss the playoffs. Their projected starting five -- Stephen Curry, Kelly Oubre Jr., Andrew Wiggins, Draymond Green, Whatever Center -- is better than the mess they rolled out last season during their horrific 1-3 start, but it requires so much from Curry. At least it has some nascent identity: length, speed, deflections, chaos.
But Curry is the only shooting threat, and his playmaking partner -- Green -- has missed the preseason and will miss the opener with a foot injury. James Wiseman hasn't played yet.
Oubre's biggest asset -- unflappable confidence and decisiveness -- should make him a weapon attacking off the catch after Curry bends defenses. Perhaps that bravado will rub off on Wiggins. Both are snazzy cutters.
Brad Wanamaker and Kent Bazemore -- and maybe Damion Lee -- are the main perimeter bench options to unlock the dreaded Green-at-center alignment. Not exactly prime Andre Iguodala. Is Golden State getting late-Atlanta/Portland Bazemore (who shot below average from deep and was just kinda there) or the one who came alive in Sacramento?
The Green-Eric Paschall duo makes intuitive sense, and might be the pathway to a beefier version of the Green-at-center archetype. (Golden State was minus-98 in 398 minutes with Green and Paschall on the floor last season, but that's a small sample compiled without Curry.)
But does that lineup type -- or any Warriors lineup -- have enough shooting? We have seen Curry squeeze points out of punchless lineups, even on the league's biggest stage. Can he do it all season? How is this team scoring when he sits? What if he gets injured for three weeks?
Indiana Pacers
Atlanta Hawks
Washington Wizards
Houston Rockets
Golden State Warriors
New Orleans Pelicans
• I had no clue what to do with Houston. Obviously, the Rockets fall in the event of a Harden trade.
• Indiana has the biggest gripe. The Pacers were the No. 4 seed last year, and Nate Bjorkgren, their new coach, is modernizing their shot selection -- the easiest way to pump up an offense that ranked 19th in points per possession. (Indiana was 29th in 3-point attempt rate last season, ahead of only the Knicks, despite an above-average shooting mark from deep.) The Pacers' roster continuity should help in this strange season.
That said, their projected starting five logged only 86 minutes together due to Victor Oladipo's injury. Oladipo was a shell of himself in those minutes.
There is scary combustibility. Oladipo's free agency hovers. Myles Turner knows Indiana almost traded him, and can't be psyched about being demoted into more of a spot-up role as Domantas Sabonis rises. Jeremy Lamb is out awhile.
Indiana's defense finished sixth in points allowed per possession largely due to icy opponent shooting from every range. The Pacers influenced that, but how much? What if they slip toward No. 10 or so? Regardless: They are favorites for the No. 7 seed, with obvious potential to finish higher.
• Atlanta and Washington must fix awful defenses, but the combination of veteran know-how from new additions and experience for younger players should help both. Also, stakes. Do not underestimate the power of stakes -- of games mattering -- in getting players to try harder at the grimier things.
The Wiz sneakily ranked 11th in defensive efficiency between the Isaiah Thomas trade and the suspension of the season. (A soft schedule helped.) Thomas Bryant made strides in the bubble. Robin Lopez is competent. He and Russell Westbrook will stanch the bleeding on the glass.
If Washington's and Atlanta's defenses are within one or two points allowed per 100 possessions of league average, their offenses should carry them into the play-in.
Westbrook is unstoppable in spread pick-and-roll with a lob-catching screener and three shooters around them. Washington should provide that, at times, though defenses will scrunch in off the ultra-young forward tandem of Deni Avdija and Rui Hachimura.
Bryant is a legit problem rampaging for angry dunks and popping for 3s. Scott Brooks can have one of Westbrook and Bradley Beal on the floor at almost all times to keep things humming.
• I dug into the Hawks on Lowe Post podcast episodes with ESPN's Kevin Arnovitz and their coach, Lloyd Pierce. With some juggling, Pierce can access all kinds of lineups and diversify Atlanta's offense.
Just don't be fooled by the high-wattage names in both places. I've seen some analysts speculate the Wiz might challenge for No. 5 in the East. No way. Defense still matters.
• The Pelicans and Warriors are the league's most confusing teams; I've talked at length about them on multiple recent Lowe Post podcasts.
The raw talent from 1 to 7 on the Pels' roster is playoff caliber. Everyone beyond that is a question mark, though normal development suggests one of their young guys should pop.
The overall fit is dicier. Their projected starting five has precisely one good shooter in Brandon Ingram. Even when they were rolling pre-bubble with Zion Williamson, the Pelicans could not score in the half-court, per Cleaning The Glass. They marauded in transition, but Stan Van Gundy teams rarely play fast. Their pre-bubble resurgence on defense proved a mirage -- the product of (among other things) random frigid opponent 3-point shooting.
But Van Gundy's teams are organized -- on both ends. There will be no more leaky transition defense. The half-court offense should be more calculated: more Ingram flying off screens and then into on-ball actions, more Williamson handling the ball, more artful use of JJ Redikk.
Supernova talent has a way of vaporizing fit concerns. Williamson is a supernova talent -- if he is healthy and in shape. Ingram is not quite that, but he is really good -- and (having interviewed him recently) incredibly confident in what is to come.
• I have the same nausea in my stomach about the Warriors as I did before last season, when I picked them to miss the playoffs. Their projected starting five -- Stephen Curry, Kelly Oubre Jr., Andrew Wiggins, Draymond Green, Whatever Center -- is better than the mess they rolled out last season during their horrific 1-3 start, but it requires so much from Curry. At least it has some nascent identity: length, speed, deflections, chaos.
But Curry is the only shooting threat, and his playmaking partner -- Green -- has missed the preseason and will miss the opener with a foot injury. James Wiseman hasn't played yet.
Oubre's biggest asset -- unflappable confidence and decisiveness -- should make him a weapon attacking off the catch after Curry bends defenses. Perhaps that bravado will rub off on Wiggins. Both are snazzy cutters.
Brad Wanamaker and Kent Bazemore -- and maybe Damion Lee -- are the main perimeter bench options to unlock the dreaded Green-at-center alignment. Not exactly prime Andre Iguodala. Is Golden State getting late-Atlanta/Portland Bazemore (who shot below average from deep and was just kinda there) or the one who came alive in Sacramento?
The Green-Eric Paschall duo makes intuitive sense, and might be the pathway to a beefier version of the Green-at-center archetype. (Golden State was minus-98 in 398 minutes with Green and Paschall on the floor last season, but that's a small sample compiled without Curry.)
But does that lineup type -- or any Warriors lineup -- have enough shooting? We have seen Curry squeeze points out of punchless lineups, even on the league's biggest stage. Can he do it all season? How is this team scoring when he sits? What if he gets injured for three weeks?
Chasing No. 10
Memphis Grizzlies
Orlando Magic
Chicago Bulls
Charlotte Hornets
San Antonio Spurs
Sacramento Kings
Minnesota Timberwolves
• Minnesota is the closest to relegation. I was initially more optimistic. Karl-Anthony Towns is a foundational offensive star -- maybe the most versatile scoring big man ever. I kinda like that the Timberwolves have six deserving perimeter players jostling for time: D'Angelo Russell, Ricky Rubio, Anthony Edwards, Jarrett Culver, Josh Okogie, and Malik Beasley.
Rubio can play with Russell or work as sixth man. I'm not sure why the snark brigade scoffs at Beasley averaging 21 points per game after his trade to Minnesota. Maybe he is a legit starting wing -- at least on offense? Minny can play three of those six at once, or even four -- sliding one to power forward, which is otherwise slated for (gulp) Juan Hernangomez and Jake Layman. (There's a reason Minnesota pursued Aaron Gordon, per league sources.)
But four of those six -- everyone but Russell and Beasley -- have 3-point shooting track records ranging from "below average" to "My eyes! The goggles do nothing!" Minnesota takes the right shots under Ryan Saunders; it just don't make them.
On the other end, opposing offenses will drag the Russell-Towns duo into pick-and-roll hell. Towns should not be this bad on defense. It's time for him to get serious.
If everything goes right -- and some stuff goes wrong for others -- the Wolves could sniff the race for the last play-in spot. It's a long shot.
• Memphis showed gumption in the bubble. Justise Winslow and Tyus Jones missed all of it, Jaren Jackson Jr. most of it. Ja Morant played through a broken thumb. The Grizzlies went 2-6, but posted the same scoring margin -- minus-1 point per 100 possessions -- as pre-bubble.
They won't catch the league off guard again, and they have a lot to sort through. Jackson is recovering from knee surgery, opening a huge hole in the starting five. They have to decide between several candidates for the third starting perimeter spot around Morant and the ultra-thirsty Dillon Brooks -- and whether that spot belongs to Winslow upon his return. (I was excited for the Morant-Brooks-Winslow-Jackson-Brandon Clarke lineup.)
All that rotational churn could make it tough for Memphis to establish rhythm. It might also disrupt a bench mob -- led by Jones, Clarke, and De'Anthony Melton -- that obliterated opponents last season. Spacing will be cramped in lots of lineups -- especially during Jackson's absence, and if Winslow's up-and-down accuracy from deep trends down again.
Development isn't always linear. I could see Memphis plateauing, or taking a small step back. I could also see Morant rendering such caution folly.
• What happens when the go-go bubble Spurs meet the DeMar DeRozan/LaMarcus Aldridge Spurs? Is this like Elaine introducing Jerry, George, and Kramer to their bizarro selves? Does the universe implode?
The bubble Spurs ran like hell, and actually played Derrick White, Dejounte Murray, and Lonnie Walker IV together -- to some success! They also somehow shot even fewer 3s!
The Spurs were minus-97 in almost 1,500 minutes with DeRozan and Aldridge sharing the floor -- continuing a bad trend. They are on expiring contracts, and trading one or both would help San Antonio settle on a playing style. Alas, they don't appear to have much trade value. Flipside: Will we see contract-year bumps?
Aldridge has lost a step on defense, but finally decided to shoot 3s. Trey Lyles found some courage too -- a must given the shooting issues elsewhere. (I could see the power forward spot being in some flux, with Keldon Johnson even getting some chances when he gets healthy.)
The Spurs have decent depth at every position. You know they'll play hard, and make teams beat them. They were fading badly pre-bubble, and they look like a .500 outfit.
• Ditto for the Kings, with too many guys who need to play power forward or center -- forcing Luke Walton to toggle Marvin Bagley III between both positions. The most fun iteration tilts toward Bagley at center and the fast pace of 2018-19, with a whole lot of Tyrese Haliburton alongside one (maybe both?) of De'Aaron Fox and Buddy Hield. They could craft a decent offense after finishing 18th in points per possession last season.
But those Bagley-at-center groups swim upstream on defense. The Kings at some point will tap into the pace and spirit that had them looking in 2018-19 like a franchise on the come. They always seem to have some random midseason hot streak.
The West is just unforgiving.
• Is it weird that I might peg the Bulls as the most likely among Chicago, Orlando, and Charlotte to bust the East play-in party? They are starting Coby White at point guard! That's a real thing!
One rookie could change this calculus: Cole Anthony in Orlando. With D.J. Augustin gone and both Jonathan Isaac and Al-Farouq Aminu injured, the playoff-incumbent Magic feel dangerously thin. Two fringe players -- James Ennis III and Dwayne Bacon -- are battling for the starting small forward spot.
Super-sub Terrence Ross figures to seize it a lot in crunch time. The Magic over the past four seasons have just barely outscored opponents with the foursome of Ross, Evan Fournier, Aaron Gordon, and Nikola Vucevic on the floor. The lineup of those four plus Markelle Fultz went plus-19 in 235 minutes last season.
Meanwhile, the Augustin/Michael Carter-Williams backcourt led bench units that blitzed opponents; can Anthony carry that over in reserve groups featuring Ross, rookie Chuma Okeke, and Khem Birch?
You also wonder if Orlando's veterans feel in their souls that this whole thing has run its course -- that they have gotten as far as they'll go before the inevitable breakup. That malaise can seep onto the floor.
• Despite my affection for Cody Martin's game, I don't trust Charlotte's bench beyond Miles Bridges. LaMelo Ball has vision and derring-do you can't teach, but most rookie point guards are massive net negatives. Expect lots of turnovers and missed shots.
The starting five is meh even after the high-priced addition of Gordon Hayward. James Borrego, the team's head coach, will have Charlotte competing and pushing toward optimal shot selection. The upside just isn't high.
• That points back to Chicago, with Otto Porter Jr. healthy (and in a contract year); a rookie in Patrick Williams who looks ready to help at both forward positions (Chicago needs wing depth); other young guys who should be on the upswing; and a coach in Billy Donovan with a history of maximizing his roster.
The Bulls will sacrifice some turnovers by moving away from Jim Boylen's ultra-aggressive blitzing defense, but they won't foul the bejesus out of everyone and again allow the most opponent shots at the rim.
Participation ribbon
New York Knicks
Cleveland Cavaliers
Detroit Pistons
Oklahoma City Thunder
• Of these four, the Cavs might have the most potential to be frisky. The foursome of Collin Sexton, Darius Garland, Kevin Love, and Andre Drummond will trouble defenses on the right nights. If they start Isaac Okoro from the jump, they will be two-deep in both capable backup wings (Cedi Osman, Kevin Porter Jr.) and bigs (Larry Nance Jr., JaVale McGee).
Alas, the rest of the roster is unproven or proven to be not very good. They are going to get torched on defense.
• The Thunder are rebuilding.
• Detroit will be miserable to watch on offense. The Pistons are starting a rookie point guard and a power forward in Jerami Grant they will use -- at his request -- in more of a ballhandling role. Good luck with all that.
They do have a top backup point guard in Derrick Rose and a bunch of interesting reserve wings. Keep a close eye on Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk.
• On paper, the Knicks look very much like last season's team that finished 30th in 3-point attempts and 27th in points per possession, and left RJ Barrett and Julius Randle dribbling into brick walls.
All five guys from last season's roster who managed at least 35% shooting from deep are elsewhere. Every single one.
But Tom Thibodeau is not required to play his worst shooters the most minutes. It might be too much too soon to start Immanuel Quickley at point guard, but he has looked solid in preseason after shooting 43% from deep at Kentucky. Real games will be much harder for him. But if the alternatives are another year of Elfrid Payton and Dennis Smith Jr., why not toss the kid into deep waters -- even as a heavy-minutes backup?
Austin Rivers is an average 3-point shooter. Alec Burks hit 38% combined over the past two seasons. Obi Toppin should provide spacing as backup power forward and spot center; he and Randle could play together in some alignments. I still have hope for Frank Ntilikina as a bigger Patrick Beverley.
Thibodeau will have New York defending at full throttle, and that's the easiest way to punch above your weight. There is a version of this team that is at least something resembling fun -- bad fun, but fun.
Memphis Grizzlies
Orlando Magic
Chicago Bulls
Charlotte Hornets
San Antonio Spurs
Sacramento Kings
Minnesota Timberwolves
• Minnesota is the closest to relegation. I was initially more optimistic. Karl-Anthony Towns is a foundational offensive star -- maybe the most versatile scoring big man ever. I kinda like that the Timberwolves have six deserving perimeter players jostling for time: D'Angelo Russell, Ricky Rubio, Anthony Edwards, Jarrett Culver, Josh Okogie, and Malik Beasley.
Rubio can play with Russell or work as sixth man. I'm not sure why the snark brigade scoffs at Beasley averaging 21 points per game after his trade to Minnesota. Maybe he is a legit starting wing -- at least on offense? Minny can play three of those six at once, or even four -- sliding one to power forward, which is otherwise slated for (gulp) Juan Hernangomez and Jake Layman. (There's a reason Minnesota pursued Aaron Gordon, per league sources.)
But four of those six -- everyone but Russell and Beasley -- have 3-point shooting track records ranging from "below average" to "My eyes! The goggles do nothing!" Minnesota takes the right shots under Ryan Saunders; it just don't make them.
On the other end, opposing offenses will drag the Russell-Towns duo into pick-and-roll hell. Towns should not be this bad on defense. It's time for him to get serious.
If everything goes right -- and some stuff goes wrong for others -- the Wolves could sniff the race for the last play-in spot. It's a long shot.
• Memphis showed gumption in the bubble. Justise Winslow and Tyus Jones missed all of it, Jaren Jackson Jr. most of it. Ja Morant played through a broken thumb. The Grizzlies went 2-6, but posted the same scoring margin -- minus-1 point per 100 possessions -- as pre-bubble.
They won't catch the league off guard again, and they have a lot to sort through. Jackson is recovering from knee surgery, opening a huge hole in the starting five. They have to decide between several candidates for the third starting perimeter spot around Morant and the ultra-thirsty Dillon Brooks -- and whether that spot belongs to Winslow upon his return. (I was excited for the Morant-Brooks-Winslow-Jackson-Brandon Clarke lineup.)
All that rotational churn could make it tough for Memphis to establish rhythm. It might also disrupt a bench mob -- led by Jones, Clarke, and De'Anthony Melton -- that obliterated opponents last season. Spacing will be cramped in lots of lineups -- especially during Jackson's absence, and if Winslow's up-and-down accuracy from deep trends down again.
Development isn't always linear. I could see Memphis plateauing, or taking a small step back. I could also see Morant rendering such caution folly.
• What happens when the go-go bubble Spurs meet the DeMar DeRozan/LaMarcus Aldridge Spurs? Is this like Elaine introducing Jerry, George, and Kramer to their bizarro selves? Does the universe implode?
The bubble Spurs ran like hell, and actually played Derrick White, Dejounte Murray, and Lonnie Walker IV together -- to some success! They also somehow shot even fewer 3s!
The Spurs were minus-97 in almost 1,500 minutes with DeRozan and Aldridge sharing the floor -- continuing a bad trend. They are on expiring contracts, and trading one or both would help San Antonio settle on a playing style. Alas, they don't appear to have much trade value. Flipside: Will we see contract-year bumps?
Aldridge has lost a step on defense, but finally decided to shoot 3s. Trey Lyles found some courage too -- a must given the shooting issues elsewhere. (I could see the power forward spot being in some flux, with Keldon Johnson even getting some chances when he gets healthy.)
The Spurs have decent depth at every position. You know they'll play hard, and make teams beat them. They were fading badly pre-bubble, and they look like a .500 outfit.
• Ditto for the Kings, with too many guys who need to play power forward or center -- forcing Luke Walton to toggle Marvin Bagley III between both positions. The most fun iteration tilts toward Bagley at center and the fast pace of 2018-19, with a whole lot of Tyrese Haliburton alongside one (maybe both?) of De'Aaron Fox and Buddy Hield. They could craft a decent offense after finishing 18th in points per possession last season.
But those Bagley-at-center groups swim upstream on defense. The Kings at some point will tap into the pace and spirit that had them looking in 2018-19 like a franchise on the come. They always seem to have some random midseason hot streak.
The West is just unforgiving.
• Is it weird that I might peg the Bulls as the most likely among Chicago, Orlando, and Charlotte to bust the East play-in party? They are starting Coby White at point guard! That's a real thing!
One rookie could change this calculus: Cole Anthony in Orlando. With D.J. Augustin gone and both Jonathan Isaac and Al-Farouq Aminu injured, the playoff-incumbent Magic feel dangerously thin. Two fringe players -- James Ennis III and Dwayne Bacon -- are battling for the starting small forward spot.
Super-sub Terrence Ross figures to seize it a lot in crunch time. The Magic over the past four seasons have just barely outscored opponents with the foursome of Ross, Evan Fournier, Aaron Gordon, and Nikola Vucevic on the floor. The lineup of those four plus Markelle Fultz went plus-19 in 235 minutes last season.
Meanwhile, the Augustin/Michael Carter-Williams backcourt led bench units that blitzed opponents; can Anthony carry that over in reserve groups featuring Ross, rookie Chuma Okeke, and Khem Birch?
You also wonder if Orlando's veterans feel in their souls that this whole thing has run its course -- that they have gotten as far as they'll go before the inevitable breakup. That malaise can seep onto the floor.
• Despite my affection for Cody Martin's game, I don't trust Charlotte's bench beyond Miles Bridges. LaMelo Ball has vision and derring-do you can't teach, but most rookie point guards are massive net negatives. Expect lots of turnovers and missed shots.
The starting five is meh even after the high-priced addition of Gordon Hayward. James Borrego, the team's head coach, will have Charlotte competing and pushing toward optimal shot selection. The upside just isn't high.
• That points back to Chicago, with Otto Porter Jr. healthy (and in a contract year); a rookie in Patrick Williams who looks ready to help at both forward positions (Chicago needs wing depth); other young guys who should be on the upswing; and a coach in Billy Donovan with a history of maximizing his roster.
The Bulls will sacrifice some turnovers by moving away from Jim Boylen's ultra-aggressive blitzing defense, but they won't foul the bejesus out of everyone and again allow the most opponent shots at the rim.
Participation ribbon
New York Knicks
Cleveland Cavaliers
Detroit Pistons
Oklahoma City Thunder
• Of these four, the Cavs might have the most potential to be frisky. The foursome of Collin Sexton, Darius Garland, Kevin Love, and Andre Drummond will trouble defenses on the right nights. If they start Isaac Okoro from the jump, they will be two-deep in both capable backup wings (Cedi Osman, Kevin Porter Jr.) and bigs (Larry Nance Jr., JaVale McGee).
Alas, the rest of the roster is unproven or proven to be not very good. They are going to get torched on defense.
• The Thunder are rebuilding.
• Detroit will be miserable to watch on offense. The Pistons are starting a rookie point guard and a power forward in Jerami Grant they will use -- at his request -- in more of a ballhandling role. Good luck with all that.
They do have a top backup point guard in Derrick Rose and a bunch of interesting reserve wings. Keep a close eye on Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk.
• On paper, the Knicks look very much like last season's team that finished 30th in 3-point attempts and 27th in points per possession, and left RJ Barrett and Julius Randle dribbling into brick walls.
All five guys from last season's roster who managed at least 35% shooting from deep are elsewhere. Every single one.
But Tom Thibodeau is not required to play his worst shooters the most minutes. It might be too much too soon to start Immanuel Quickley at point guard, but he has looked solid in preseason after shooting 43% from deep at Kentucky. Real games will be much harder for him. But if the alternatives are another year of Elfrid Payton and Dennis Smith Jr., why not toss the kid into deep waters -- even as a heavy-minutes backup?
Austin Rivers is an average 3-point shooter. Alec Burks hit 38% combined over the past two seasons. Obi Toppin should provide spacing as backup power forward and spot center; he and Randle could play together in some alignments. I still have hope for Frank Ntilikina as a bigger Patrick Beverley.
Thibodeau will have New York defending at full throttle, and that's the easiest way to punch above your weight. There is a version of this team that is at least something resembling fun -- bad fun, but fun.
ISO
Pass me the rock nikka
He can actually hoop. He can shoot and run P&R’s but will be a defensive liability in the playoffs.
He’s young and Clippers probably see a big role for him.
Lakerman0834
Veteran
tremonthustler1
aka bx_representer
Orlando has to be top 3 in terms of teams I can’t stand.
Even the pistons would not do deals this bad. We had both of emWhy not see how he plays before committing such a contract. 128 mill for 4 years of Morris and kennard
ISO
Pass me the rock nikka
The cap is high now even average players get the bag especially if they’re young.
I personally wouldn’t do it but this is the NBA now. And there’s pretty much no contract that is untradeable anymore.
All the Clippers care about is his 40% 3PT and 4 dimes he tossed last year so they can use him as a tertiary ball handler and shooter. They also see he’s 23 which means they project him getting better. This how teams see it and agents sell it just the reality.
Only way this foolish contract makes sense is if Kawhi is for sure about to sign a extension. If not the clippers core isThe cap is high now even average players get the bag especially if they’re young.
I personally wouldn’t do it but this is the NBA now. And there’s pretty much no contract that is untradeable anymore.
All the Clippers care about is his 40% 3PT and 4 dimes he tossed last year so they can use him as a tertiary ball handler and shooter. They also see he’s 23 which means they project him getting better. This how teams see it and agents sell it just the reality.
Wayoff
A Morris twin
&
A slow footed cac
for the foreseeable future
