Random NBA Observations 2017 - 2018

[Kovu]

Yet Mr. Triple Double distributed 16 assists and counting right now...

So? He likes stats. He gets stats. Doesn't mean he made the right or smart play.

 

[<<TheStandard>>]

I was wondering when this talking point was gonna be brought up. Spurs have the #2 defense as well - even though he's a GREAT defender, he doesn't have the same impact. It's half the reason why the Spurs had a better defensive rating when he was off the floor for most of last season.

I disagree with this strongly. This was more so statistical noise, largely due to randomness. When Kawhi was in the game teams happened to shoot a higher 3 point percentage and since 3 point percentage is mostly random......he's more of a victim of bad luck than anything.

There's a whole nylon calculus article about it

Nylon Calculus: Missed 3-pointers are ruining Kawhi Leonard’s defensive numbers

There are a multitude of factors in play here and one of the big ones is 3-point shooting. Justin Willard has pointed our here that opponents have hit the highest percentage (37.2 percent) of 3-point attempts with Kawhi on the floor of all players on the Spurs. And to make matters worse, opponents have also hit the lowest percentage (28.1 percent) of three-point attempts with Kawhi on the bench, also noted by Kevin Pelton on ESPN Insider.


This matters because, as we have previously written about here on Nylon Calculus, opponent 3-point percentage is mostly random across a large enough sample size. Teams have very little control over the opponent 3-point percentage. They can affect the number of attempts, but not the percentage. This means that there is very little Kawhi Leonard can do to affect the 3-point percentage of the opponents. The number of 3-point shots taken with Kawhi on/off the court is almost the same (24.4 vs. 24.9 per 100 possessions), so that it not part of the issue.

The league average 3-point percentage is 35.9 percent. If we pretend that Spurs’ opponents had shot league average on all 3-point shots, Kawhi Leonard’s on/off defensive rating improves by 6.7 points per 100 possessions. It is especially his off numbers that improve by quite a lot, because opponents have shot so poorly against his teammates.

 

[Serious]

Jazz scored 13 points against the defensive juggernaut Suns in the 1st quarter

and people think the jazz will be better than the blazers

 

[duckbutta]

why is KD wearing a hoodie in the warriors pre game intro

 

[Jplaya2023]

Lakers playing in their nuggets throw backs

 

[DoubleJ13]

Might have been the least entertaining game I've seen in a while

2 teams who want to play fast & couldn't because the refs were calling something every other trip down the floor. Then it was a blowout at the end.

 

[Serious]

@tremonthustler1 gotta be loving this

 

[Derek Lee]

This Suns team without Watson

 

[Redguard]

I'm glad the Suns didn't trade Josh Jackson.

 

[duckbutta]

Kerr pissed 19 seconds into the game

 

[GoddamnyamanProf]

This Suns team without Watson

Josh Jackson

 

[smitty22]

Such a blatant push off by LeBron on that drive and of course they didn't call it. :smhkobe:

@smitty22 we gonna act like Dough Boy isn't sitting out while the Nets are winning this game?

Such a great leader to instill that winning mentality into the Nets even when he's not on the court :Wewinning:

 

[Serious]

Lavar gonna start talking that shyt

 

[Redguard]

Josh Jackson

Dude might be Shawn Marion 2.0

 

[GoddamnyamanProf]

Jazz scored 13 points against the defensive juggernaut Suns in the 1st quarter

Reports from players that they learned more in a couple hours from Jay Triano than they did the past month with Earl Watson.