I wouldn't say they are way more accurate, but they have factored in the error they made in 2016 regarding Cheetos voters...
There is no silent Trump voter in 2020, they're all out and proud to be dumb fukks voting for a con man...
The numbers that matter are from the districts which clearly shows the "silent vote" in 2020 is in Joe Biden's corner...
This 100%.
If people are so nervous that it makes them vote....that's good. However 2020 is nothing like 2016.
Trump was an outsider and represented "change." He had no record to run on. Now he has a record and it sucks.
Plus, there were far more undecideds and many of those broke late for Trump.
This election is all about turnout. Hillary barely lost and she was the most hated Democratic candidate in a generation AT LEAST. All of that working against her and she was probably less than 100k votes in the midwest from winning the election.
Biden will get those midwest states, might lose Ohio....but don't be surprised if he pulls a southern state (Florida, Texas, NC or Georgia). Based on the map, Biden basically starts with 232 EC votes to Trump's 125. Biden has a lot of paths and Trump has to run the table.
This is a lot like the Democratic Primary. Bernie was overrated because people hated Hilary more than they liked Sanders. Everyone thought he had it in the bag but didn't account for how things would look without Hillary. Same situation....Biden isn't Hilary and Trump isn't talented enough as a politician to win over people that aren't already in his bag.