Ohio and Florida: Lost causes for Dems, or are they still winnable?

Are Florida/Ohio still winnable for Dems?

  • Democrats can still be competitive in both states

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
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NkrumahWasRight Is Wrong

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Who else in this state wants to take a voluntarily and automatic L against desantis? Seems like hes been taking Ls for the senate and governorship for the past 12 years.

doesnt do much in motivating left leaning voters by nominating a former republican either

they would have been better off sacrificing a young progressive if they were going to not even challenge desantis...move the conversation a little bit
 

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:mjlol: :mjlol:Tried to tell them.


I'm confused whether you're agreeing with me or calling me out.


I said the feelings about Florida and Ohio were too "in the moment". Meaning they weren't looking good in the moment, but that doesn't tell us anything about the long-term future. 2022 election results were irrelevant to my point.

Ohio literally has a Democrat for a senator who just got reelected in 2020. Tim Ryan didn't do great in this year's race, but it wasn't a great situation - in a blue wave year they could easily take it again.

Florida has continued to trend poorly, but they damn near had a Black man win the governorship just 4 years ago. After the way they reacted to Covid, the conservative direction Florida latinos have been trending, and continued right-wing migration to the state, it could be looking grim there though.

The weird thing about Florida, though, is that turnout was TERRIBLE. Only about 50% of Democrats showed up for this election while 66% of Republicans showed up. So the Democrats are there, they're just not voting. The DNC also raised very little money for these races.
 

NkrumahWasRight Is Wrong

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I'm confused whether you're agreeing with me or calling me out.


I said the feelings about Florida and Ohio were too "in the moment". Meaning they weren't looking good in the moment, but that doesn't tell us anything about the long-term future. 2022 election results were irrelevant to my point.

Ohio literally has a Democrat for a senator who just got reelected in 2020. Tim Ryan didn't do great in this year's race, but it wasn't a great situation - in a blue wave year they could easily take it again.

Florida has continued to trend poorly, but they damn near had a Black man win the governorship just 4 years ago. After the way they reacted to Covid, the conservative direction Florida latinos have been trending, and continued right-wing migration to the state, it could be looking grim there though.

The weird thing about Florida, though, is that turnout was TERRIBLE. Only about 50% of Democrats showed up for this election while 66% of Republicans showed up. So the Democrats are there, they're just not voting. The DNC also raised very little money for these races.

Republicans who can afford to relocate to florida from every state on the east coast are flocking there, young and old.

42000 new Yorkers alone have moved to florida through august

I'd imagine the new residents of the state turn out to vote in order to keep the policies they like safe, such as having no income tax

Arizona has also seen an influx from california. Net 192000 people gain in arizona from 2010-2018

The common complaint from republicans in arizona and florida is that democrats move there for their policies then vote democrat to change them.to look like the states they left. There are democrats moving to these states as well. This is true.

But I'd wager a majority of net new residents to arizona and florida are Republicans from blue states fleeing taxes

I dont see Florida going blue again for quite a while. The florida Democrats are totally feckless for putting so much behind a loser like Crist

They need a young firebrand with energy to go toe to toe with trump and DeSantis even if it means they get blown out in the election

Why would Democrat turnout be high in a mid term there against an overwhelming favorite incumbent when your option is a former Republican himself who has lost 1000 elections

Just trash
 

Sohh_lifted

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I'm confused whether you're agreeing with me or calling me out.


I said the feelings about Florida and Ohio were too "in the moment". Meaning they weren't looking good in the moment, but that doesn't tell us anything about the long-term future. 2022 election results were irrelevant to my point.

Ohio literally has a Democrat for a senator who just got reelected in 2020. Tim Ryan didn't do great in this year's race, but it wasn't a great situation - in a blue wave year they could easily take it again.

Florida has continued to trend poorly, but they damn near had a Black man win the governorship just 4 years ago. After the way they reacted to Covid, the conservative direction Florida latinos have been trending, and continued right-wing migration to the state, it could be looking grim there though.

The weird thing about Florida, though, is that turnout was TERRIBLE. Only about 50% of Democrats showed up for this election while 66% of Republicans showed up. So the Democrats are there, they're just not voting. The DNC also raised very little money for these races.

Demings outraised Rubio :mjlol: :mjlol: go ahead and cook tho.

 

Professor Emeritus

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Demings outraised Rubio :mjlol: :mjlol: go ahead and cook tho.



Yeah, that $12 million difference in their personal campaign spending is less than 5% of the $250 MILLION gap in party and committee spending in the state:

$250 million hole​

Republicans vastly outspent Democrats by at least $250 million, based on an analysis by investigative reporter Jason Garcia of Seeking Rents.

Friends of Ron DeSantis, the Republican Party of Florida, and the House and Senate campaign committees spent a combined $297 million, compared to $45 million spent by the political committees of Charlie Crist and the Florida Democratic Party.


 

mastermind

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Yeah, that $12 million difference in their personal campaign spending is less than 5% of the $250 MILLION gap in party and committee spending in the state:

$250 million hole​

Republicans vastly outspent Democrats by at least $250 million, based on an analysis by investigative reporter Jason Garcia of Seeking Rents.

Friends of Ron DeSantis, the Republican Party of Florida, and the House and Senate campaign committees spent a combined $297 million, compared to $45 million spent by the political committees of Charlie Crist and the Florida Democratic Party.


How much of Demings money was in-state?
 

Sohh_lifted

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Yeah, that $12 million difference in their personal campaign spending is less than 5% of the $250 MILLION gap in party and committee spending in the state:

$250 million hole​

Republicans vastly outspent Democrats by at least $250 million, based on an analysis by investigative reporter Jason Garcia of Seeking Rents.

Friends of Ron DeSantis, the Republican Party of Florida, and the House and Senate campaign committees spent a combined $297 million, compared to $45 million spent by the political committees of Charlie Crist and the Florida Democratic Party.



Why include Desantis race and his funding? Bruh, no one in FL or anywhere else believed Crist had ANY chance. Dems bankrolled Demings believing she did running on Roe V Wade being overturned, and got SMOKED.
 

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Why include Desantis race and his funding? Bruh, no one in FL or anywhere else believed Crist had ANY chance. Dems bankrolled Demings believing she did running on Roe V Wade being overturned, and got SMOKED.


I was pointing out that Democrats had underperformed their potential this year in Florida, both because turnout among Dems was terrible and because they spent relatively little in the state.

The fact that the Dems spent $250 million less in the state than Republicans did is likely a major factor behind why turnout was so poor, and naturally that will impact every single candidate on the ballot.



It's laughable that you think a $12 million funding advantage for a single candidate is going to outweigh a $250 million advantage in party spending in the state.
 
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Why include Desantis race and his funding? Bruh, no one in FL or anywhere else believed Crist had ANY chance. Dems bankrolled Demings believing she did running on Roe V Wade being overturned, and got SMOKED.
Demmings also fukking sucks as a candidate. I voted for her but voting for a cop feels disgusting. Hoping to never vote for a pig again, fukk them
 

intra vires

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Ohio literally has a Democrat for a senator who just got reelected in 2020. Tim Ryan didn't do great in this year's race, but it wasn't a great situation - in a blue wave year they could easily take it again.
It was 2018, Brown faced a fairly weak challenger and that wasn't a bad cycle for Democrats. He also had the highest name recognition on the ballot as the gubernatorial race had no incumbent. He would have lost if he had to run in 2020 and likely will lose in 2024.

There aren't any "great situations" for Democrats running statewide in Ohio. Vance was a weak candidate who underperformed every other Republican running for statewide office, including the race for the vacant chief justice seat (party ID race between two associate justices). If this were an actual swing state Ryan may have won, unfortunately it isn't and DeWine et al carried Vance's ass to victory.
 
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