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KingBeez

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Can u post the latest nba mock
I'm gonna post in parts because it's a long read and the coli has a character limit. I'll post in a moment

When is being in an NBA front office just like being a fan? In a lot of ways, draft week is that time.

For starters, there’s a lot of newsgathering going on. Yes, we have access to better pipelines, but everybody is scanning the news for snippets of information and calling their best sources to try to figure what other teams are up to. With the pandemic situation, getting the good stuff is harder. As one league source told me, “I haven’t been through a draft before with this little information.”

More importantly, there’s the mock draft. Yes, NBA front offices do this. Every franchise does it a little differently, but the basic premise is the same: A group of staffers will go through the draft and try to divine who might get picked where, and who might slip. In some ways, it’s an easier exercise on the outside. The hardest part in a team environment is for the room to navigate around its own groupthink.

So, yes, it’s mock draft time. With eight days until draft time, I’ve been making calls, reading the Interwebs and searching for any other readable tea leaves to construct a plausible outcome for how this draft might go. I also hopefully have a bit more insight into how some of these teams think, having been dealing with them for the past several years.

From that, I’ve mapped out what I think happens with the first 30 picks.

But before we start, a few caveats:

It’s still early. This is the best information I have right now, but a lot can and will change over the next eight days. I can’t guarantee you how this board might change, only that it will. Rest assured that our assiduous crew here at The Athletic will keep you posted on everything we’re hearing.

Trades? There are a lot of spots in the first round that could potentially swap via a trade. However, until such a deal is actually consummated, it’s always safer to bet on a trade not happening and that the team in that particular spot ends up picking. Nonetheless, moves by Golden State or Boston, in particular, could end up shaking up this board; I’ll talk about that a bit more in their pick sections. But I’ve played out this mock draft “straight,” as though each team will be using its pick.

The second round? Ha. Let me tell you from seven years on the inside: Nobody knows what’s going to happen in the second round as it’s happening, much less beforehand. Sometimes picks change hands so quickly it’s hard to even keep track of who controls them. In seven years on the team side, I saw rumors about the second round pan out roughly zero times.

The uncertainty isn’t just because we don’t know which players will be left on the board — the bigger problem is that we don’t even know who’s picking. The fact is that in any given draft about half the second-round picks are likely to change hands. Last season it was 16 of them, including every pick from 32 to 35.

This year, nine of the first 10 picks in the second round have already been dealt at least once. Philadelphia alone has four second-round picks and there’s a decent chance the Sixers trade at least three of them. Mostly these deals happen via small-fry transactions involving cash or future seconds, but the big picture holds: Any projection of the second round is basically a blindfolded primate throwing darts.

Teams might be a little distracted. Free agency is going to start almost immediately after the draft, which means that teams will have to pivot very quickly into their other offseason moves. LOL, who are we kidding, free agency started last week. Teams and agents are already having discussions, not that they’ll admit it in their out-loud voice. Instead of the usual one-week interlude, the draft is taking place virtually simultaneously while this goes on.

Additionally, teams are hindered by the inability to complete any trades; they will end up having only a few days before the draft, and then less than 48 hours between the end of the draft and the start of free agency. All of which could chill the trade market a bit.

Not every team can trade down. Lots of teams in the lottery are looking to trade down. The problem is that with the possible exception of Boston, nobody seems particularly excited about trading up. It takes two to tango in this league, and a lot of teams are going to be alone on the dance floor. As a result, many teams will be making a pick even if their truth-serum honest preference is that they wouldn’t.

Point guards and centers pushed down. Two factors conspire against these positions. First, the recently completely playoffs reminded everyone how important it is to have switchable players, ideally between 6-5 and 6-9, in a postseason environment. Second, there are just too many of them, especially once we get past the lottery.

At point guard, I can point to several first-round talents who are between 6-0 and 6-2: Kira Lewis, Tyrell Terry, Cole Anthony, Malachi Flynn, Devon Dotson, Payton Pritchard, Tre Jones and Cassius Winston. I guarantee not all of them go in the first round. Maybe not even half of them. (Some would add Nico Mannion to this list, although I’ve heard his interviews were … not great.)

At center, it’s even worse, and driven even more by the fact that teams with two good centers already just aren’t going to draft a third one. Precious Achiuwa, Jalen Smith, Zeke Nnaji, Isaiah Stewart, Xavier Tillman, Udoka Azubuike and Daniel Oturu all are mid-to-late first-round talents, in the eyes of at least some evaluators. I’m not sure more than three of them actually go in the first round.

These aren’t my personal ratings. I published my draft board, including my top 23 players and my best of the rest (24 through 70), over the summer. That’s how I would rank these guys, and little has changed since then, given that nobody played any games for the last seven months.

This mock draft is different. What you’ll see below is what I expect teams might do, not what I would do in their shoes.

But I digress. With those asides, here’s how my crystal ball looks right now:
 
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KingBeez

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1. Minnesota – LaMelo Ball, PG, Illawarra Hawks
Minnesota continues to explore trade opportunities, in part because that’s how this front office is wired. But I’ve also heard some chatter that the Wolves are in win-now mode. To which I would retort a confused … why?

The Wolves aren’t making the playoffs this year with their current roster, and their two best players are at the beginning of long-term deals. Now is the time to assemble all the pieces that make you so good two years from now that Karl Towns and D’Angelo Russell aren’t looking for greener pastures; it is not the time to go all-in on the No. 8 seed and hope that Towns appreciates it three years from now. Why are you doing this, Wolves? WHY?

Anyway …

I’m fairly certain the first pick in the draft will be either LaMelo Ball or James Wiseman. Ball is the biggest talent, but Wiseman could end up No. 1 if the Wolves trade down with Charlotte. (One possible construction: The third pick, Miles Bridges and the 32nd pick for the first pick, Jacob Evans and Omari Spellman.) That would leave the Wolves in a position to gather some assets and select Anthony Edwards with the third pick, who fits better with the Russell-Towns pair than Ball does.

But I think that scenario is slightly unlikely, and if not, I think Minnesota — or whichever team picks here that isn’t Charlotte — takes Ball. He’s the most talented player and likely will have the most trade value. There are still warts here, relative to the top pick in most drafts: His jumper is shaky at best, he needs to dial up the defense, and from what I’ve heard his interviews were somewhere between mediocre and flat-out bad.

One other player to watch out for: Tyrese Haliburton. Minnesota isn’t taking him first, but I could see the Wolves going for him instead of Edwards if they trade down.

2. Golden State – James Wiseman, C, Memphis
This pick is turning into a circus, with the Warriors’ multiple smokescreens layered over what appears to be genuine internal debate about who should be the pick if they keep it.

We’ve heard a lot of fanciful trades involving Golden State and this pick, but let me offer a simpler one: What if they traded down from No. 2 to No. 4, sent Kevon Looney to Chicago for Wendell Carter, and picked Tyrese Haliburton? The Bulls could then pick LaMelo Ball second, if the first pick had already been James Wiseman via my Charlotte deal above.

The other name you hear a lot with the Warriors is Deni Avdija, although, again, that seems more of a trade-down possibility than something they would do at 2. One other wild card I can’t resist however: If Wiseman goes first, what about trading the second pick to New Orleans for Jrue Holiday, and then the Pelicans reuniting the brothers Ball?

Fake trades are fun! Nonetheless, at the end of the day I think they make the pick themselves and take Wiseman. Despite my own questions, enough other teams seem high on him that I feel pretty certain he goes in the top two. He helps the Warriors the most now, and has the most trade value later.

3. Charlotte – Anthony Edwards, SG, Georgia
The Hornets need a center, but they don’t need to draft a center. The Bugs have plentiful cap space and there are several quality 5s on the market this offseason.

Getting back to the draft and possible centers, it appears Charlotte is very excited about James Wiseman and maybe only somewhat excited about Onyeka Okongwu. If Wiseman is gone, that could leave the Hornets trading down or selecting Okongwu third, but they are just as talent-starved on the rest of the court and just need high-upside, All-Star caliber talent. Edwards is the one who fits the bill here.

As noted in the Minnesota section, I do see trading up as a possibility, but one has to wonder if that’s something that’s being goosed by the Wolves to drum up better trade possibilities from teams further down. Charlotte historically has been pretty careful about pushing chips in on draft day.

The wild card name here is Obi Toppin, who fits this team’s history of drafting highly productive college players. I think that’s more likely if they trade down, but keep it alive in your heads.

Finally, here’s the one piece of this puzzle that’s nagging at me: Teams aren’t sold on Edwards. They know he’s talented, but the shaky J, blah workout and some very iffy background reports make everybody nervous as hell. I can’t find anybody excited to pick him, and that makes me wonder if he could slip.

4. Chicago – Tyrese Haliburton, PG/SG, Iowa State
It’s like Gar Forman and Fred Hoiberg never left! Gags aside, I don’t know if Chicago is the team that takes Haliburton, but what I do know is that he’s going to go high. Everybody likes him. He has length and tools, the background on him is impeccable, and all these 1-on-0 shooting drills in “workouts” are going to make him look really good.

New GM Arturas Karnisovas had a track record of selecting international players in Denver, which has pushed some toward saying Deni Avdija could be the pick here, but there isn’t a lot of information backing that up besides foreign passports. The Bulls also are said to be looking at culture as a big piece of this, and Haliburton is the best culture guy with top-10 talent. I think he’s the pick here, and I think he might be the pick here even if it isn’t the Bulls making the pick.

One other player to watch: LaMelo Ball. Karnisovas and T’wolves GM Gersson Rosas worked together in Houston, and that could lubricate trade talks to bring assets to Minnesota and move the Bulls up in the draft. Unfortunately, I just don’t immediately see what Chicago assets could push a deal like this across the finish line.

5. Cleveland – Obi Toppin, PF, Dayton
I’ve heard two names with Cleveland: Obi Toppin and Deni Avdija. That’s it. That’s the list. I’m not really sure which way to run with this. Avdija has fans in the front office but I get conflicting thoughts on him from scouts I talk to: Some love him, some think he’s just okay. More people think Toppin is a pretty legit top-5 talent due to his offensive skill, but I’ve been told to keep an eye on his medicals from the combine. (Teams are still parsing through this info.)

Toppin is a weird fit in a frontcourt that already has Larry Nance, Andre Drummond and Kevin Love, but I could see the Cavs moving Nance and creating a role for Toppin (see Boston pick at 14 below). Cleveland might need to do the same with Avdija, actually, if you see his future as more of a 4 than a 3.

I have to wonder, however, if the Cavs might want to offset the recent history of more speculative grabs (Darius Garland, Collin Sexton, Kevin Porter) with a more experienced player, especially since they seem to be getting weary of the post-LeBron rebuild. Toppin’s ability to help immediately has to be tempting. That’s the tiebreaker for me.

6. Atlanta – Deni Avdija, SF/PF, Maccabi Tel Aviv
This pick is rumored to be in play, but I don’t really see an answer for Atlanta that is worth swapping out the sixth pick. I do think the Hawks would absolutely love to get their mitts on Tyrese Haliburton – he just checks too many boxes for them, short-term and long-term – but I think it’s unlikely they can do that from the sixth position.

If so, it might come down to Avdija or Devin Vassell. The argument for Vassell is more immediately persuasive, as a 3-and-D wing who could complement the Trae Young-John Collins-Clint Capela core.

The argument against is, “Didn’t we try this a year ago? How’d that work out?” The Hawks are likely better off aiming for the biggest talent in the draft and then using free agency to address getting rotation-caliber wing players. Avdija can also fill an important role as a backup 3/4 who may not start games but sometimes finishes them; if he’s any good at all he’ll be a massive upgrade on what they had a year ago.

The other name here is Isaac Okoro, but he’s the least likely of the group to provide immediate help for a team that’s jonesing for a playoff run this season.

7. Detroit – Patrick Williams, SF/PF, Florida State
The hottest draft rumor is that Williams has a promise from the Pistons, or at the very least that they’re extremely interested in him. Killian Hayes is the other name I’ve heard here, but at a much, much lower volume.

A Williams pick would track with everything we know about their front office. A year ago they took the youngest player in the draft, a long forward from France named Sekou Dombouya. Williams is the youngest collegian in this year’s draft.

Secondly, the Pistons seemingly had interest in Williams even before Troy Weaver became the GM. And then, as the capper, look at Weaver’s history in Oklahoma City: It’s one raw, long-limbed, combo forward after another. Williams could not fit more perfectly into that profile.

One thing to watch here: Could Detroit do a trade with Washington to move from 7 to 9, which would still get them Williams in all likelihood, but also brings in another asset? (From Washington’s perspective, this assures them of Onyeka Okongwu.) Weaver’s Oklahoma City team did a similar move a year ago, moving back two spots just before selecting Darius Bazley. If the Pistons are okay with Hayes as a Plan B, I could easily see this.

Finally, one name to watch if Detroit trades down: Aaron Nesmith.

8. New York – Tyrese Maxey, SG/PG, Kentucky
What is the Knicks-iest thing that can happen here? The first instinct is to say that the Knicks take CAA client Devin Vassell, given that the franchise is practically a subsidiary of CAA at this point, but it seems to me that those ties matter a lot more in free agency than they do in the draft. My best sources agree on this point. (Toppin and Haliburton also are CAA clients, by the way.)

So let’s look instead at the other connection point: Kentucky, where newly hired Knicks VP William Wesley has lurked in the shadows for the last decade, and from where newly hired assistant Kenny Payne also came.

After an ordinary college season, Maxey has seen his draft stock boost through no work of his own. The outsized exploits of former Kentucky players Devin Booker, Bam Adebayo, Jamal Murray and Tyler Herro in the bubble have generated renewed interest in Maxey’s prospects as the possible Next Kentucky Guy.

Fortunately for him, Kevin Knox, Malik Monk, Brandon Knight and James Young did not play in the bubble. I still don’t really see the fascination with Maxey, but it does appear he has a decent shot of going in the lottery.

The fly in the ointment is that Maxey signed with Klutch, and Klutch and CAA are bitter rivals. But with a rookie salary scale, there just isn’t a lot to haggle over. They’ll figure it out.

If LaMelo Ball slides, the Knicks are going to try hard to get in on the action, but I don’t think they have the goods to trade all the way up to number 1, and even if Ball is there at 2 it would probably cost them Mitchell Robinson at the very least.

One other possibility is for the Knicks to move back in a deal with Boston for picks 14, 26 and 30 … except they already pick 27th, so what are they really getting out of it unless they have a destination for one or two of those late firsts? I think they just use the pick here on whatever player they’ve rated highest. That player may very well be Maxey, although you also hear Killian Hayes’s name a lot here too.

9. Washington – Onyeka Okongwu, C, USC
The one thing I can almost guarantee in this draft is that Okongwu does not get past Washington at nine. The Wizards having a glaring need for a defensive center, and not a lot else on the shopping list with two veteran guards who will take up most of the backcourt minutes, and multiple young forwards they’re trying to get minutes. The question at this point isn’t even whether they’d take Okongwu; it’s who they would take if Okongwu is gone.

Should that happen, I think a swap with Boston for picks 14, 26, and 30 starts to make a lot of sense here. It gives the Wizards three shots at young talent to push the rebuild, and I’m not sure the player they get from 14 is really any different from the one they get at 9.

Should Okonwgu be gone and the Wizards have no viable trade outs, Isaac Okoro probably makes the most sense of the remaining players at this point since Washington needs literally anybody who can play defense. But mostly the Wizards are crossing their fingers that Okongwu gets to them.

10. Phoenix – Killian Hayes, PG/SG, Ratiopharm Ulm
The word is pretty strong out there that the Suns are targeting the backcourt with this pick, and that makes sense strategically given Ricky Rubio’s age and the fact Phoenix’s free-agent money will likely be spent on a power forward. So it comes down to Hayes or Kira Lewis. While some smoke signals indicate the Suns like Lewis better, Hayes has the advantage of being big enough to play next to guards like Rubio, Cam Payne and Jevon Carter. That’s a tougher sell with the slightly built Lewis. I could see Tyrese Maxey getting a look here too, if he’s still available.

Hayes is also a divisive player among scouts. Some compare him to Jamal Murray with his size and ability to get to different shots off the dribble, while others see him as a one-handed player with middling athleticism and a shaky shot. I’m a fan, but there’s no question the potential outcomes are all over the board with him.
 

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11. San Antonio – Isaac Okoro, SG/SF, Auburn
Unusually large plumes of smoke have streamed out of San Antonio this fall, and this coming from a team that is normally church-mouse quiet. There are rumors that the Spurs are looking really hard at several bigs … and other rumors that they love Saddiq Bey … and overall just an absurd number of players projected 20 through 35 who have had their names come up here. Oh, and the Spurs are also rumored to love Patrick Williams, but he’s gonzo by this pick.

Tracing all that smoke back to an actual fire, one wonders if the Spurs are looking at trade-down scenarios with Boston that could put them in a position to have picks 14 and 26 if the player they want isn’t here at 11.

However, San Antonio’s scenario greatly simplifies itself if Okoro and Vassell are both on the board when they pick 11th. I don’t see the Spurs as a destination for Hayes or Kira Lewis given their backcourt crowd, but the rebuilding (please?) Spurs still need more wing talent. This is low for Okoro, perhaps, but he seems destined to slide a bit as a result of the 1-on-0 workout format, which didn’t showcase anything he does well but provided plenty of opportunity for him to display his offensive shortcomings.

12. Sacramento – Devin Vassell, SG, Florida State
There is a lot of chatter that analytics will play a major role in the Kings’ pick, which doesn’t shock me given the background of new GM Monte McNair. Hopefully, they use better inputs than whatever produced the legendary Nik Stauskas pick. However, note that The Matrix won’t be making this pick by itself: The new Sacramento front office does include some veteran road warriors, including former Sixers scout Phil Jabour.

Regardless, the analytics are unlikely to play so big a role that the Kings would take DePaul’s Paul Reed, who impresses with his digits but might very well still be available when they pick again at 42.

But if Vassell is available, this becomes an easy call, even with multiple shooting guards already on the roster (well, for now). I think this pick is Vassell’s floor. While it’s hard for teams in the lottery to get crazy excited over Vassell given his limited on-ball resume, the prospects of a plug-and-play 3-and-D wing for a team hoping to end its league-leading playoff drought have to be alluring. Also, of course, the analytics on Vassell are really good.

Worrying clips of Vassell launching Jamaal Wilkes-style from way behind his head were wisely scrubbed from Twitter, and sources insist that it was just him goofing around and not a real change in his form.

Finally, perhaps not surprisingly given how the last decade has gone, there have been rumors that some agents are specifically avoiding the Kings for workouts and interviews.

13. New Orleans – Kira Lewis, PG, Alabama
I don’t have a great read on the Pelicans right now, but Lewis will be the consensus top player on the board when this pick comes up, and he fits.

Why go with a point guard here when you already have Lonzo Ball? Because Ball is big and Lewis can shoot, meaning it’s pretty easy to play them together, and Lewis seems by far the best player available here … particularly if, as seems likely, New Orleans moves Jrue Holiday.

Jalen Smith is another name I’m hearing here, while one of Saddiq Bey or Aaron Nesmith could also be the choice given that the Pelicans are still a bit shy on floor spacing. But Lewis checks the most boxes.

14. Boston – Saddiq Bey, SF, Villanova
Bey might go 14th regardless of whether the Celtics keep the pick or not. My perception is that Bey and Nesmith are competing for the same type of draft slots and both will go in the teens, but that Bey is very slightly preferred to Nesmith by most of the “win-now” crowd.

From Boston’s perspective, Bey doesn’t ooze upside, but he provides a good shooter and switchable defender at the 3 and 4 to take over some of the backup wing minutes that had Brad Stevens desperately sifting through the Ojeleye-Langford-Williams pupu platter a season ago.

My favorite draft trade, by the way, is for Boston to flip this pick to Cleveland for Larry Nance, with the Cavs then taking either Bey or Nesmith in this slot. But as noted above, I can also see Boston packaging 14 and one of 26 or 30 to move up a few spots and get into Okoro/Vassell territory.

One other name to watch here: Aleksej Pokusevski. The Celtics could survive their roster crunch by leaving him in Greece and then bringing him over a year from now.

15. Orlando – Aaron Nesmith, SF, Vanderbilt
The history of this front office can be described in one word: Length. Since their days in Milwaukee, the team of Jeff Weltman and John Hammond has been obsessed with long limbs in the draft. Sometimes it gets them Giannis Antetokounmpo, and other times it gets them Melvin Frazier, but the track record here is really consistent.

That has everyone’s eyes cast toward Jaden McDaniels, the lanky young forward from Washington. The one caveat here is that McDaniels’ arms aren’t technically that long, but otherwise he fits the mold of a raw, oversized combo forward who this front office has picked.

The other issue, though, is how many players like this can you really have? I mean, if you spent the last couple years adding Jonathan Isaac, Al-Farouq Aminu and Chuma Okeke to a team that already had Aaron Gordon, are you really going to add another dude like this? I kind of doubt it.

That’s why I say Nesmith is the pick here. Surprise — he has long arms! Nesmith measured a 6-10 wingspan on his 6-5 frame. But he’s also a fantastic shooter who can play both wing positions, and this Orlando team is just desperate for shooting and spacing.

One note: The Magic are almost certainly looking closely at the point guard market. Markelle Fultz is locked into a backcourt slot, but he’s big enough to guard 2s and it’s still an open question whether he can ever be a high-end starter on a good team. If Kira Lewis falls here, I have to think the Magic pounce.

16. Portland – R.J. Hampton, SG, New Zealand Breakers
I’ve heard some wild stuff here — I mean like, wild stuff — but I’m not sure how much of it to believe. So I’ll go with the known on Neil Olshey’s track record: if he’s not getting a high-skill guy in the lottery, he prefers to work with raw clay. Toolsy, teenage, high-school All-Americans, preferably, with shooting optional. Nassir Little a year ago, Anfernee Simons before that, Eric Bledsoe with the Clippers … he has a type.

Of the available players, I would say Hampton is the one who best fits the mold. Hampton isn’t ready, but the Blazers believe strongly in their player development program and don’t mind waiting on results. Of the players remaining on the board, he arguably has the greatest upside.

I can understand the other argument, that Portland should be in more of a win-now mode and try to add another wing shooter. It would be especially tempting if one of Aaron Nesmith or Saddiq Bey is on the board, but they’re gone in this mock.

Back to crazy town for a minute: One name I’ve heard here is prep-to-pro Jay Scrubb, who is on the same path Simons took. But surely the Blazers would be targeting him at 46, not at 16 …. right?

17. Minnesota – Precious Achiuwa, PF/C, Memphis
This pick, like most in the 15 to 21 range, is actively being shopped, but it’s not clear to me who the buyer would be or at what price.

So let’s presume for now that the T’wolves pick. I’ve seen some Jalen Smith talk here, but I don’t really see it – he’s too stiff defensively to play next to Towns. It almost feels a bit smokescreen-y.

Meanwhile, Achiuwa doesn’t fit the 3-point vibe that’s likely to be a big part of Minnesota’s future, but otherwise checks some necessary boxes as a multi-positional, switchable frontcourt defender. He can play smallball 5 when Towns is off the floor but stay on the court next to Towns, too, especially if his shot comes around.

18. Dallas – Aleksej Pokusevski, “power” forward, Olympiakos B
Okay, let’s talk about the biggest mystery meat of the draft, because there is a lot of subterfuge to process here.

The rumor is that Pokusevski has a promise from a team in the first round, and that’s why he bailed on the draft combine. Bigger picture, that may also be why he bailed on much of his 2019-20 season, depending on when the promise came.

Adding fuel to the fire are two data points: 1) Pokusevski’s agent, Jason Ranne, used to work for the Oklahoma City Thunder, and 2) The Thunder themselves are notorious in league circles for promising their pick and having him shut down workouts and other public viewings waaaaay ahead of the draft.

I don’t think the Thunder are the only ones playing poker here, though. At the 18th pick, we have a Dallas team with a noted proclivity for swinging for the fences on high-upside international prospects. Sometimes they get Dirk Nowitzki and sometimes they get Pavel Podkolzin, but they’ll keep swinging.

So why wouldn’t the Mavs take a swing here? Instead, there are widespread rumors that Dallas is shopping the pick in search of a high-level wing.

Color me dubious. They’re going to trade this pick for a wing when they’re trying to create max cap room in 2021? They’d either nuke the cap space or end up trading a first-round pick for a rental. This feels more like a smokescreen to dissuade the teams behind them from jumping up to 17 and taking their guy.

I don’t see Pokusevski making it all the way to the Thunder at 25 in either case, which means Oklahoma City may need to use its surfeit of future firsts to move up. Regardless of which team lands Pokusevski, I think he goes in the mid-to-late teens, possibly as high as 14 to Boston.

19. Brooklyn – Tyrell Terry, PG, Stanford
The perception among draftniks is that Tyrell Terry has jumped Cole Anthony in the point guard pecking order. A certifiable Really Big Deal has been made of the fact that Terry put on 15 pounds of muscle since the end of the college season, but I must inform you that most NBA teams don’t really give a hoot – they know their own strength programs can fill out players like Terry.

Of far more relevance is that Terry measured an inch taller than his listed height because you can’t really fix that in the weight room. The added inch increases the long-term possibility of him being able to play off the ball next to a dynamic dribbler … like, say, Kyrie Irving.

Terry would be a perfect fit for Brooklyn. The Nets want upside with this pick, and get that with Terry’s youth and shooting ability. But he also fits as a back-end rotation player in their win-now incarnation centered on Kevin Durant and Irving. I’ve also heard Jaden McDaniels and Aleksej Pokusevski associated with Brooklyn.

While we’re here: Look for the Nets to buy a second-round pick that they can keep on the back end of the roster at the rookie minimum as their 14th player. They could make the money back just on saved luxury tax payments.

20. Miami – Jalen Smith, PF/C, Maryland
Miami could use another big to develop for a year and then take over Kelly Olynyk’s soon-to-be-vacant rotation spot when he becomes a free agent in 2021. And the Heat will certainly want that player to have some shooting skill so he can play next to Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo. Smith isn’t super-nifty distributing from the elbow, but has a solid 3-point release, is a plus rebounder and protects the rim well enough to plausibly play backup 5 despite his narrow frame.

Tyler Bey is another name to watch here, as he fits the mold of hyper athlete the Heat have targeted at other times — he could basically become their next Derrick Jones Jr. But if Smith is here, I think that’s the pick that makes more sense.
 

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21. Philadelphia – Cole Anthony, PG, North Carolina
Despite Daryl Morey’s analytics renown, his draft history doesn’t really reveal a “type.” But I know what the Sixers need, and that helps winnow down the possibilities. I’m guessing it won’t be any of the 800 centers and non-shooters that will be on “next best available” lists when this pick comes up.

Anthony’s stock is definitely sinking, but at this point in the draft it might be an overreaction. He can create shots and is a pretty decent shooter from distance, two things that are in extremely short supply in Philly. The Sixers are in win-now mode, and Anthony might be able to give them bench scoring immediately. Also, analytics models that weigh AAU production would likely show Anthony as undervalued at this point.

This pick is also very much for sale if it returns the right player, but even if it moves I could see another team grabbing the value proposition on Anthony at 21.

22. Denver – Theo Maledon, SG, ASVEL Lyon
This pick would be entirely consistent with everything we know about the Nuggets. Denver loves its internationals, especially ones with decent tools who can spend a year or two blossoming in the Nuggets’ player development system. Denver also needs more guard help if you’re looking a year or two down the road, especially if Monte Morris doesn’t stay when he hits free agency.

Maledon’s own trajectory also indicates a likely promise, as he hasn’t suited up for Lyon this year under the presumption that he’ll be playing in the NBA soon. Scouts are torn on him, with few in love but most acknowledging a toolset that would make him at least functional on an NBA floor.

The other possibility here is one of the myriad centers on the board, as the Nuggets might want to get their replacement for Mason Plumlee on draft night. Zeke Nnaji, Elijah Stewart or Daniel Oturu could be an answer here.

23. Utah – Josh Green, SG, Arizona
The Green drumbeat from Utah has been pretty loud, and one can see why a big guard who can defend and has playmaking capability might be a pretty attractive idea for a team like the Jazz.

Green’s background wasn’t totally clean but not anywhere near red flag territory either, and starting in the late teens a lot of teams are looking closely at him. He has size at 6-6, pretty good feet at the defensive end, and his shot isn’t broken. Once again, the big picture for draft night is that midsize players have a wind at their back while the point guards and centers swim against the tide.

Utah also has the same group of centers noted above as possibilities here, and nobody would be surprised if they went for Desmond Bane either (more on him below).

24. Milwaukee – Desmond Bane, SG, TCU
I keep having people tell me that Desmond Bane will move up, that he had the best interviews of any player in the draft and he knows exactly what he is as a player. I’m buying it, and I may still have him too low here – I think this is closer to Bane’s floor than his ceiling. It’s easy to see him plugging into a role on a good team since he can shoot and pass and is willing to defend, even if his feet can be heavy at times.

He’d be a nice get here for Milwaukee, as the Bucks are set to lose as many as four wing players to free agency and would like to pipeline a younger wing on a rookie deal to offset the bleeding while they straddle with the luxury tax line.

25. Oklahoma City – Jaden McDaniels, SF/PF, Washington
A long-limbed, rangy combo forward with tempting athleticism but barely a trace of offensive skill? This type of player is a veritable honey trap for the Thunder, and my guess is that they can’t help themselves.

While similar moves have periodically paid off, there are a lot of questions about McDaniels. His attitude, skill level and general interest in basketball have all been called into question at various times. Go through each team’s draft board (if we could), and he would probably have the widest range of high to low of any player here. I had one exec tell me he was a top-5 pick, and others tell me he has no chance.

As noted above, the Thunder are widely suspected of having promised Aleksej Pokusevski, as noted above, but it seems unlikely he makes it to pick 25.

26. Boston – Leandro Bolmaro, SF, FC Barcelona
I suspect Boston would absolutely love it if Desmond Bane fell here, but the odds don’t favor that outcome. One can also make a case for Robert Woodard here since Boston has over-indexed on muscles in recent drafts and Woodard has a big, strong frame, but I don’t really see Woodard as a first-round talent and most of the people I talked to agree.

A lot of scouts aren’t crazy about Bolmaro, but he’s the one guy you can see being selected as a stash pick in the first round — Bolmaro is playing games for Barcelona right now and will be there all season, at a minimum.

In this case, he makes a ton of sense if Boston can’t move the pick, given the Celtics’ roster crunch and the fact they have three first-round picks. Bolmaro plays a valuable position and has some intriguing possibilities as a point forward who can guard his position, but his overall production has been pretty disappointing for FC Barcelona this year.

27. New York – Malachi Flynn, PG, San Diego State
I’ve heard a lot of Flynn chatter here. New York needs guard help, plus Flynn is a CAA client, so that automatically ties him to the Knicks. And he’s good! (Incidentally, one rumor making the rounds is that a couple of other teams are pursuing late first-round picks to grab Flynn, although this may be hot air since it includes some teams that quite honestly have near-zero capital with which to acquire a first-round pick.)

New York’s other options here are probably also guards, such as Jones, Pritchard, Winston or Dotson.

28. L.A. Lakers – Isaiah Stewart, C, Washington
I’m very interested in this pick given the Lakers’ scintillating recent track record with late draft picks, particularly regarding frontcourt players. In this case, they will have a ton of options if they want to grab a young 5 to back up their aging cohort of bigs.

Stewart is a bit undersized but has very long arms and probably came second only to Bane in terms of interview raves – everyone loves him. On the heels of previous L.A. finds like Thomas Bryant, Ivica Zubac and Mo Wagner, Stewart could provide another value frontcourt pick before the Lakers give him away for a ham sandwich in 18 months (ducks).

29. Toronto – Zeke Nnaji, C, Arizona
Toronto’s draft history is all over the place, with the one commonality being that the picks tend to turn out awfully well. In this case, the Raptors have two free-agent centers and are fairly stacked along the wings. Several point guards could go here too, but Toronto’s backcourt is full if Fred VanVleet returns.

Enter Nnaji. He gives them a big man who shoots well enough to space the floor for Giannis Antetokounmpo Pascal Siakam and Norman Powell, while also offering some board muscle. His defensive ability at the next level is a concern, but this is what you get at 29.

30. Boston – Tyler Bey, SF, Colorado
I don’t have a great landing spot for Bey, but this dude is too athletic not to go in the first round. I’m parking him here for now, on the expectation that Boston trades this pick someplace else and the acquiring team is more likely than not to see Bey as the best player available.

Some other names to watch here, and at the back end of the first round in general, are Jordan Nwora, Daniel Oturu, Payton Pritchard and Xavier Tillman. Devon Dotson and Paul Reed, despite my admiration for both, are far more likely to go later in the draft, as is another sleeper of mine in Elijah Hughes.

He also dropped a podcast about his picks:
 

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The draft and free agency are the buzz words for the coming seven days, but for some front offices, there is another very important negotiation coming up. First-rounders drafted in 2017, as well as some second-rounders taken in 2018, are eligible for contract extensions between now and the quickly arriving start of the season. For a few players and teams, these are nine-figure decisions with massive implications for the future of the franchises.

At least six players have some plausible chance of getting a max extension, which would start at $28 million in 2021-22 (give or take a few shekels) and come to a total of $162 million over the course of a five-year deal.

Some players — most notably Boston’s Jayson Tatum — could earn more if they negotiate “Rose Rule” criteria into their deal, which could pay them up to $33.6 million in 2021-22 and a whopping $195 million over the life of the deal … provided the player makes one of the three All-NBA teams this year (or, less likely, wins MVP or Defensive Player of the Year).

At the other end of the spectrum, several 2017 first-rounders won’t be getting an extension at all. Six players are ineligible by virtue of not having previous options picked up: Josh Jackson, Caleb Swanigan, Anzejs Pasecniks, Harry Giles, Justin Patton and Tyler Lydon.

Additionally, six others have done so little in their time thus far that it’s virtually inconceivable they would receive an extension. Those six are Dallas’s Justin Jackson, Oklahoma City’s Terrance Ferguson, Indiana’s T.J. Leaf, Milwaukee’s D.J. Wilson, Charlotte’s Malik Monk and New York’s Dennis Smith Jr.

In between, we have everybody else. So as a guide, I used my BORG and BORD$ formulas to project a) how well these players might perform over the coming five seasons and b) how that translates in terms of a contract valuation.

Note that assumptions about the salary cap are hugely important in this analysis. Based on the league’s recent agreement with the NBA Players’ Association, I assumed 3 percent rises in 2021-22 and 2022-23. I then put my finger to the wind and inserted a 10 percent raise in 2023-24, and 8 percent increases in 2024-25 and 2025-26. Your mileage may vary on those last three seasons in particular.

And now, for the fun part. Here’s what my analysis suggests each of these players is worth on the first year of their 2021-22 extension, based on either a four- or five-year deal and the maximum 8 percent annual raises:

Group 1: No-brainer Rose Rule max
Some players are so good that they’re a screaming bargain even at the maximum allowable salary. This year we have one such candidate.

Jayson Tatum, Boston — $55,416,536

OK, I’m a little worried that my numbers might like Tatum too much. He projects as a $48.8 million value in 2020-21, and then it increases every year afterward as he gets into his mid-20s. On a five-year deal, he can expect to return a whopping $320 million in value for the Celtics … which means that even on a Rose Rule max for $195 million, Boston would make out like bandits.

Regardless, my projection would have to be massively off base for Boston to lose on a max deal for Tatum. One presumes a deal for him might include a fifth-year player option that would cut into the ROI on that final year, but anyway you slice it the Celtics are going to come out ahead on this.

Group 2: Max him out … carefully
Two players almost certainly deserve a max deal, but the devil may be in the details with player options and “Rose Rule” stipulations.

Bam Adebayo, Miami — $33,157,331

Adebayo is clearly worth the max, but his number is just low enough where you’d want to be a little careful with the Rose Rule and player option language on the last year if you could. Of course, this is likely all a theoretical discussion since the Heat can’t retain max cap room in 2021 if they sign Adebayo to an extension right now – it would have to wait ’til next summer.

The good news for Miami is that by waiting the Heat can gather another year of information and, at the end of it, still outbid teams with a fifth year and 8 percent raises on a max deal. The numbers say he’d just barely be worth the Rose Rule max, but remember, this is before the 2020-21 season has been played. Conditional on him playing well enough to qualify for the Rose Rule by making one of the first three All-NBA teams, he’d almost certainly project as being worth it in future seasons. And Miami is the only team that can offer it to him.

De’Aaron Fox, Sacramento — $32,449,818

Fox played at an All-Star level last season, even if he didn’t make the team, and at 25 percent of the cap would provide clear value for the Kings. Given Fox’s age and the Kings’ market, this is a case where the Kings would be wise to hold the line on player options and ensure they retain his rights for the full five seasons on a max deal.

Even if it means giving in on a Rose Rule max deal, which the numbers suggest he’s not quiiiite worth (but is also unlikely to qualify for anyway), such a deal would lock the Kings in with their speedy guard for the next half-decade.

Group 3: Near max, but we need to talk
These players’ agents are almost certainly going to ask for the max. It’s not a totally unreasonable request, but their teams might be a bit squeamish about forking it out.

Johnathan Isaac, Orlando — $30,418,555

OK, let’s talk about Isaac. Obviously, my numbers don’t know that he injured his knee, and that the injury could and should have a pretty serious downward impact on a potential extension for Isaac.

Instead, let me use this figure as a starting point for a deeper conversation. Pre-injury, Isaac certainly was a max extension candidate. How much do we lop off based on the knee injury and the otherwise discouraging injury history he’s shown so far in his career?

A fair number might be more in the $20 million to $22 million range, the typical price tag on an above-average starter. The Magic would take on some risk committing to four years at a number like this — with raises, they’re looking at $94 million over four years — but it’s low enough that it doesn’t wreck their team if Isaac is in and out of the lineup.

Donovan Mitchell, Utah — $26,897,852

This number is going to surprise some people, but Mitchell is a bit older than some of the other rookies here and that hurts him in two ways: First he’s projected to improve less in the coming two-to-three years, and second, the tail end of the contract starts declining in value as he hits his late 20s.

The other factor, as you might have guessed, is that the analytics in BORG aren’t quite as sold on Mitchell as a top-20 player as the general populace is. BORG projects him as the league’s seventh-most valuable shooting guard for 2020-21.

I don’t think there’s any question Mitchell will sign a max deal, but if you’re Utah, this analysis might guide what type of max deal. The numbers suggest they’re slightly better off signing him for four years rather than five, and holding off on any kind of Rose Rule salary bump. Of course, there are other factors here: You’re Utah, not Miami, so retaining rights to players is paramount. Overall, that makes this one of the most fascinating negotiations for me.

John Collins, Atlanta — $25,644,959

Collins is young, athletic and offensively awesome, but he’s not quite a max guy. You’ll occasionally hear scuttlebutt that the Hawks aren’t totally sold on him, and if he’s looking for a max extension, I think Atlanta is certainly better off waiting. The Hawks still can match any offer a year from now, or go out to a fifth year if he plays so well that he becomes max-worthy.

On the other hand, a four-year, no-options deal for anything at $110 million or less starts looking pretty nice from the Hawks’ perspective. Atlanta has one of the league’s cleanest cap sheets going forward and, even with a likely max deal on Trae Young hitting its books, can afford to have Collins at a number in the mid-20s.

Also notable: With Young likely to get one designated rookie extension and fingers still crossed that the sixth pick this year might merit one too, Atlanta not using a designated rookie spot on Collins could potentially be helpful down the road.

Finally, here’s one other angle to consider: What if they gave Collins a five-year max, but had raises that declined by 8 percent? His value relative to the cap would keep going up just as the rest of the Hawks’ sheet was filling up with other deals (like Young’s), and the only negative is the Year 1 overpay when they have too much room anyway. A five-year deal set up that way would be worth $118 million

A slightly less extreme version of the same deal would start at the max but have no raises over the five years, for a value of $140 million. The devil is in the details, but a construction like this is one way to give Collins the “max” while still giving the Hawks a chance to win the back end of the contract.

Lonzo Ball, New Orleans — $24,912,371

Surprised? Ball rates as a pretty valuable player by most advanced metrics, is still quite young, and last season showed marked improvement in one of his biggest weaknesses (long-range shooting). He may never be one of the two best players on an elite team, which argues against a max deal for him, but paying him like a high-end starter through his mid-20s doesn’t seem that crazy, does it?

In reality, I don’t see Ball getting quite to this number, but it’s good information from New Orleans’ perspective. If the Pelicans can get him for four years at $20 million a pop or so, they likely will win on that contract by a pretty decent margin.

Group 4: Let the Haggling begin
All of these players are clearly valuable enough that their teams would want to lock them up with an extension … at the right price. What is that price? Aye, there’s the rub …

Jarrett Allen, Brooklyn — $21,757,226

Let me once again state for the record that it is completely insane that the Nets want to start DeAndre Jordan over this guy. Allen is young, active, improving every year and good enough that he could sneak onto an All-Star team at some point in the next half-decade.

Yet one gets the impression other teams might value Allen more than the Nets do. With Brooklyn still big-game hunting for a Brad Beal-type All-Star to pair with Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant, and Allen one of the obvious trade chips in such a deal, there is a strong incentive for Brooklyn not to sign an extension now.

The salary cap dynamics of a trade with his extension involved could prove a major hurdle to getting a deal done — for instance, if he signed an extension for the dollar value above, the CBA’s “Poison Pill provision” says he’d count as only $3.9 million in outbound salary for the Nets, but $20 million for the receiving team. As a result, I think the Nets will be better off waiting unless they can get a bargain price.

OG Anunoby, Toronto — $21,056,931

Another guy whose extension might mess up his team’s cap plans, depending on what happens with Fred VanVleet. If I were Toronto, I’d be hustling to ink Anunoby at a number in the range above — it would be about $94 million over four years — given that so many teams will have cap room next summer and will end up with “overpay OG Anunoby” as Plan C after their initial targets spurn them. There just aren’t that many big wings who can defend and (sort of) shoot, and Anunoby is one of them.

The issue, alas, is that Toronto has those same plans. The Raptors can’t achieve max cap room with Anunoby on an extension in this price range unless VanVleet leaves as a free agent. Otherwise, they need to keep Anunoby on his cap hold of $11.6 million and gamble that they won’t have to match an insane offer sheet next summer.

Lauri Markkanen, Chicago — $18,177,306

I still think Markkanen is a better player than we saw from him last season, although the injury situation is getting a bit concerning. Nonetheless, this price feels eminently fair. On a four-year deal it would pay Markkanen just north of $80 million. He’s young enough to provide some upside that he’ll outrun this contract, and the downside seems limited by the fact that stretch bigs aren’t going out of style any time soon.

Also, note that the Bulls’ cap sheet is clean enough that they should almost certainly do a declining money deal with Markkanen, paying him a big 2021-22 salary but with 8 percent year-to-year decreases.

Markelle Fultz, Orlando — $15,943,392

Fultz has been on a long, wild ride, so it’s easy to forget that he’s still only 22. His jumper may never be enough of a weapon to truly scare opponents, and that likely will keep him out of the top tier of the league’s point guards.

On the other hand, paying him as a low-end starter or high-end backup to have the prime seasons of his career doesn’t seem ridiculous at all. A four-year, $65 million extension would make some sense for both sides, especially since Fultz would be young enough at the end of it to cash in again.

Luke Kennard, Detroit — $12,235,635

Detroit is doing it is due diligence on Kennard’s trade value before deciding on the next contractual step, and this price point is low enough that Kennard might want to wait anyway. The other issue, unknown to us on the outside, is the state of Kennard’s knees after they gave him so much trouble last season. Assuming he’s healthy, Kennard grades out as the third wing player on a good team with his shooting and secondary playmaking, although there isn’t a lot of home-run upside here.

Bigger picture, we’re now getting into a group of players where the reduced cap optionality of an extension most likely isn’t worth the benefit of locking up a deal, even at a relatively fair price. In Kennard’s case, the vibe I get is that both sides would prefer to play out the season before inking an extension, and that’s if he isn’t traded first. One potential team to watch: New Orleans, where the guy who drafted Kennard is now the head coach.
 

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Group 5: Negative age situations
Two players, in particular, are in much different situations than the rest of their extension-eligible cohort, because they are so much older. Derrick White is already 26 years old and Josh Hart turns 26 in March, which means their projected value actually goes down, by quite a bit, on the back end of a four-year deal. Their teams would actually be better off going a bit shorter and extending them for three years, if they’re going to do it at all.

Derrick White, San Antonio — $16,311,432

A genuinely good player who performed even better in the bubble, White’s peak projected dollar value is in 2021-22 and then declines from there, first gently and then more rapidly by 2024-25.

Fortunately, San Antonio’s cap situation is tailor-made for this, as the Spurs have virtually no money on their books after this season. They could start an extension for White at, say, $18-20 million, with 8 percent declines from year to year, and end up coming out even or slightly ahead on all four years of a $70 million extension.

On a more traditional deal, the Spurs would better off limiting their commitment to three seasons for a total contract value in the $50-55 million range. I have him delivering $56 million in the first three seasons of an extension.

One factor working against an extension: White’s $10.5 million cap hold could make it easier for Spurs GM Brian Wright to stuff in a few free agents before dealing with re-signing White in the 2021 offseason.

Josh Hart, New Orleans — $12,356,264

Hart is half a year younger than White (roughly), but he’s in a similar boat in terms of the value on the out years of an extension. In his case, the Pelicans also have to think about the variability of their own cap situation with players like Ball, Brandon Ingram, Jrue Holiday, and whatever is going to happen with Zion Williamson, and that likely weighs against them committing cap resources to Hart too early.

As with White, the optimal contract structure here would be three years, with BORD$ projecting Hart to return $42 million in value over the first three seasons of an extension.

Group 6: Not bloody likely
I may be missing somebody, but to my knowledge, the only rookie extension signed for less than the MLE in the last decade was the deal we did with Quincy Pondexter in Memphis in 2013. It’s certainly possible for these players to ink an extension, but at these valuations, they’re probably better off waiting. At these numbers, there is more upside in a big year doubling their valuation than downside from a poor season.

Zach Collins, Portland — $8,964,955

I suspect the Blazers think Collins is worth more than this, and I’m sure Collins’ representation does too. That could set up some possibility of an extension happening, especially given the Blazers’ past history of sticking with their young players.

Nonetheless, if you’re Portland you want to see Collins make it through a full season and prove that he can actually be a full-time 4 as the Blazers envision. Already badly handcuffed on future salary cap flexibility, it would be a painful mistake to pay Collins seven figures annually and have him turn out to merely be a backup 5 behind Jusuf Nurkic. We already saw that movie once with Meyers Leonard.

Frank Ntilikina, New York — $6,775,669

The Knicks have enough room to extend Ntilikina and still indulge all of their cap room free-agent fantasies for 2021, especially if they decline the fourth-year option on Kevin Knox (ducks). Ntilikina’s youth and defensive chops likely limit the downside of a potential extension, even as the upside also seems constrained by his limited shot-creation ability. Still, guards who defend generally are underrated league-wide, and if the Knicks can lock in a four-year, $25-30 million deal they’d likely come out ahead on the arrangement.

New York is another team that should think about starting at high dollars with its ample salary bandwidth, and then using 8 percent salary declines on the later years. If so, the Knicks could end up with a great value when Ntilikina is in his mid-20s.

Tony Bradley, Utah — $6,306,549

Bradley is still quite young and was reasonably effective as a backup 5 last season, but there just doesn’t seem to be a lot of reason to lock in a backup 5 the way the game is going. However, there is one corner case where extending Bradley might make some sense. Because this value is actually quite a bit less than Bradley’s cap hold, having him locked in at $5-6 million might actually increase the Jazz’s cap space in a scenario where Rudy Gobert leaves in free agency next offseason.

Kyle Kuzma, Lakers — $4,858,969

This number will surprise a lot of people but Kuzma is neither particularly good nor particularly young. In his case, he’s almost certainly better off playing out the season and trying to increase his market value, especially since he did play better in the bubble than he had previously. Nonetheless, Kuzma is already 25 and likely near his peak, a peak which hasn’t been anywhere near starting caliber.

My projection sees Kuzma’s value escalating to a high of $6 million each of the next three seasons — only two of which are covered by extension — before the age curve starts bending against him. So a three-year, $17 million extension might be reasonable for the Lakers, but I can’t see any way Kuzma agrees to that.

Group 7: The second-rounders
The rules are a bit different for this group of players, all but one of whom were second-round picks in 2018. They can sign an extension at any time during the season, so there isn’t a deadline coming up the way there is for the players above. Memphis’s Dillon Brooks, for instance, was in a similar situation a year ago and didn’t ink an extension until February.

Note also that a few of the better 2018 second-round picks are actually not eligible for extensions right now: New York’s Mitchell Robinson and Dallas’s Jalen Brunson signed four-year deals, while Phoenix’s Jevon Carter signed for just two and is already a free agent.

Finally, there is one very important limitation: Because all of these players are currently on minimum contracts, they are limited in the dollar value of a contract extension to 120 percent of the average player salary for 2019-20. That limit is still being finalized but is expected to be about $12 million.

Devonte’ Graham, Charlotte — $16,823,909

By far the most prominent member of this group, Graham showed himself to be a starting-caliber player during his 2019-20 eruption and now stands to make some coin in the summer of 2021.

Charlotte has ample salary-cap flexibility to lock him up early on a declining deal, which also makes sense because Graham is nearly 26 and his age will work against him in the later years of the contract. Unfortunately, he’s likely worth too much to make a contract extension workable. Even a four-year deal at the maximum allowable extension amount and 8 percent raises only gets him $54 million over four years. He likely can do better as a restricted free agent in 2021.

Gary Trent, Jr. Portland — $9,738,015

If I were the Blazers and wanted to lock up one young player this offseason, it would not be Zach Collins. Trent is a big-time shooter who showed himself to be a credible defender as well, and is still only 21 because he was among the youngest players in his draft class. Keeping him in Portland on anything around MLE money would be a huge win for the Blazers.

Svi Mykahailuk, Detroit — $8,973,346

Mykhailuk is deceptively young for somebody who played at Kansas for eleven years, at just 23. As a result, buying the next four years of his career should be a good bet for a rebuilding Pistons team that needs to develop and retain more young talent. By the way, an extension will not impact Detroit’s cap room at all since his 2020-21 salary is already locked in once they pick up his bargain $1.66 million option.

Isaac Bonga, Washington — $8,564,764

Bonga was the youngest player in the 2018 draft and just turned 21 last week. While his upside is limited by his lack of first-step zip, he’s a decent shooter who defends well, and his size makes him a potential multipositional monster as his game develops further. If I were an (oughttabe) rebuilding team like a Washington, I’d be trying really hard to make sure I had Bonga signed for the next half-decade.

Bruce Brown, Detroit — $6,620,807

Brown isn’t as young as Mykhailuk and his shaky offensive game likely limits how much future value he can deliver, but he’s another player the Pistons might try to lock up at the right price. Even if his long-term future is likely as a bench player, his combo of defense, toughness, and ballhandling ability has value.

@SadimirPutin
 

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The Houston Rockets’ offseason has become quite raucous — again.

Nearly two months after the bumpy departure of former coach Mike D’Antoni and a month after former general manager Daryl Morey’s unexpected exit, sources tell The Athletic’s Shams Charania that one-time MVP and nine-time All-Star Russell Westbrook wants out of Houston. Westbrook, who has three years and $132 million remaining on his deal, has expressed the sentiment to Houston officials, sources told Charania.

Westbrook has informed team officials that he has been uneasy about the team’s accountability and culture, and wants to join a team where he can have a role similar to his prior, floor-general role in Oklahoma City. The Rockets are fully intending to continue building a title-contender around James Harden, and rival team officials tell The Athletic that the franchise has so far been protective of both franchise centerpiece James Harden and Westbrook in trade discussions.

What’s more, sources told Charania and Kelly Iko of The Athletic Houston that Harden remains committed to the Rockets and is “locked in” for the season. Harden spent time last week working out in Los Angeles, but has returned to Houston for training prior to the Dec. 1 training camp start.

Westbrook, sources say, has made it known for quite some time now that he would like to see significant changes to the Rockets’ culture. Specifically, his desire for more team-wide accountability, discipline and structure have been the focus of talks with team officials. Throughout the season, Westbrook was the consistent presence who kept Harden accountable and the two close friends had several verbal exchanges that sources described as “tense, but needed.”

In essence, one source said, Westbrook would like to see something closer to the Thunder culture that he helped create during his time in Oklahoma City from 2008 to 2019 as a way of making him more comfortable. The organization, in turn, has been receptive to these requests and is focused on building the sort of environment that functions better for everyone — Westbrook included.

So with former assistant general manager Rafael Stone having been elevated to the GM role and former Dallas Mavericks assistant coach Stephen Silas now in D’Antoni’s old spot, how did they get here? It has been a game of dominoes, really, and they’re not falling in the Rockets’ direction at the moment.

Changes abound, and questions about the Rockets’ culture emerge

For years, the dynamic that existed between Harden, D’Antoni, and Morey was inclusive, transparent, and quite successful. The ultimate goal of winning a championship wasn’t achieved, but it would be a farce to declare that the past few years had been a complete failure – especially given the various achievements the franchise experienced. Harden became an MVP and perennial All-NBA player. The team that won a franchise-record 65 games in the 2017-18 season would have been Finals-bound during that storied season if not for the infamous streak of 27 consecutive missed 3s against Golden State in Game 7 of the West Finals. Still, they were seen as legitimate contenders during these past four seasons.

But the removal of these key components — D’Antoni departing for an assistant coaching position in Brooklyn and Morey becoming president of basketball operations in Philadelphia — has left serious doubt in both Harden’s and Westbrook’s minds of an ability to sustain long-term success, sources said. Although Harden and Westbrook were kept abreast of decisions and offered input, both players are in win-now mode and have raised questions as to whether that same mindset is shared with the front office, sources said.

Harden was initially lured to Houston in 2012 by Morey’s ability to sell him on a successful business model, one that included a positive career arc for himself and a serious pursuit of championships. Westbrook, who was traded to the Rockets in July 2019, was convinced by Morey and Harden that playing for D’Antoni would take his game to an even higher level, supported by a spread offensive scheme. Now, both are gone.

There has been an overwhelming amount of support for Silas as he prepares to coach his own team for the first time in 20 years of experience, as well as Stone’s new position as general manager. However, as it pertains to both Harden and Westbrook, there is concern about the direction the team is heading in, specifically worried that the team may prefer a rebuild sooner rather than later, sources said. With both stars still in the prime of their careers and the championship window that was once wide open now shut considerably, both have zero interest in a rebuild, sources said.

John Lucas, who was a finalist for the head coaching job after spending the last four seasons as a Rockets assistant, was promoted to lead assistant under Silas and has a unique and crucial role as it relates to Harden. In addition to having a clear understanding of the schemes Houston has operated under in recent years and of the roster, Lucas being retained was intended, in part, to send a clear message to Harden and Westbrook that there is still a commitment to winning at the highest level, sources said. Lucas has been able to reach Houston’s stars in unique ways over the last few seasons he’s been with the franchise. D’Antoni leaned heavily on Lucas in a similar aspect during their time together, although at times he became intimidated by Lucas’ popularity and influence, sources said.

The pressure keeps rising

Truth be told, this Westbrook development is merely the latest challenge in what has been a trying time for the Rockets. And he’s hardly the only player who has been struggling with frustration.

The pressures of winning a championship, fighting against a slew of healthy competition and their own career clocks, so to speak, resulted in a season that showed a lack of cohesion and “a mess,” as one source described it. It was an uphill battle getting everyone on the same page at times, stemming from core issues facing key players. The 2017-18 season in which the franchise won 65 games saw a roster adopt a team-first mentality, but there has been a steady distancing from that, sources said.

For starters, P.J. Tucker, the undeniable glue of the team, has been irate over his contract situation all season long, sources said. Tucker, who signed for around $8 million a season back in 2017, has seen other ‘Three-and-D’ wings around the league receive paydays in less important situations than a key starter for a contender and believes he is worthy of a raise, sources said. Tucker, sources said, has stated his intent to finish his career as a Rocket for a long time but felt insulted by Houston’s decision to delay extension discussions and wait until after the Feb. 6 trade deadline to guarantee his 2020-21 salary.

Eric Gordon, who won Sixth Man of the Year in 2017, endured a difficult season from an injury standpoint, but was also not pleased with how his role and importance had diminished since the 2016-17 season, sources said. The Rockets haven’t been consistent with how they’ve used Gordon, at times being a bonafide scoring option and other times an expensive catch-and-shoot option.

Gordon has expressed displeasure on a number of occasions, with Lucas taking the lead on keeping him focused, sources said. The question of whether Danuel House or Gordon should start has been a talking point for two seasons, although Gordon has often expressed a lack of preference with coming off the bench or starting — instead wanting his role defined and clear.

Internally, there were a number of options discussed to best optimize his skillset, with one approach being not having Gordon share the floor as much with Harden and Westbrook at the same time, sources said. This, however, would require D’Antoni reducing his staggering strategy, something that he wasn’t keen on doing, sources said.

House was another player who wasn’t pleased with his usage and involvement in the offense and has verbally challenged D’Antoni, Harden and Westbrook this season, sources said. His January outburst in a road win against the Hawks was the first instance where House publicly lost his cool in that manner but this wasn’t an isolated incident, sources said.

Austin Rivers, who recently stated on “The Ringer NBA Show” that he would be declining his player option for 2020-21, also experienced a frustrating season. At times, Rivers was unhappy with his inconsistent playing time and utilization, sources said. In one instance, Rivers went on an expletive-laden tirade following a game where D’Antoni called for him to be substituted, only to change his mind and insert new signing Demarre Carroll. In another instance, Rivers was barked at by Harden after the former MVP missed a free throw and blamed Rivers — who was standing up by the bench — for distracting him.

A large chunk of the angst, however, stems from a lack of accountability, sources said. During the January locker room meeting following a home loss to Portland, Westbrook, who was leading the meeting, went around the room indicating what was wrong and what each player needed to do to fix the losing streak, starting with himself, sources said. When it came to Harden, however, he wasn’t as receptive to criticism as other teammates, sources said.

Former teammates have described the culture in Houston as problematic, sources said, highlighting a situation that caters far too much to its stars. One example cited was the case of Trevor Ariza, who left the team in 2018 in search of more money, but also more respect, sources said. The Rockets attempted to bring him back down the line but Ariza, sources said, was seeking an apology that never came. Former teammates also questioned why players like Clint Capela and Chris Paul were traded, according to sources. There have also been complaints about the team’s style of play, both from former and current players on the team, sources said. Game 7 of the 2018 Western Conference Finals was the highlight of such complaints, with the team missing 27 straight 3-pointers and not adjusting or incorporating any other offensive strategy, sources said.

So, what now?

The accelerated nature of what has been a unique season and offseason only puts Houston in a tighter spot. Westbrook’s addition fundamentally changed how the Rockets operated from a schematic standpoint, being so committed to him that the team sent young center Capela away to afford Westbrook more space to operate.

Westbrook has essentially thrown his chips to the center of the table and wants a resolution before next season, but what direction would Houston go in? More importantly, what does Coach Silas want to do? Do they revert to the 2016-17 method, using Harden as the primary ballhandler, the season where he led the league in assists? Or do they scour the league for a suitable guard who can play next to Harden and still give the Rockets an elite 1-2 punch?

Jrue Holiday’s name sounds much more interesting and palatable now than it did a week ago, but expect Houston to be thorough and aggressive in resolving this situation. Silas and Stone both said they were ready during their introductory press conference. Now, the ball is in their court.
 

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These are the stories of Giannis Antetokounmpo’s first two years in the NBA, when he went from a mostly unknown Dave-&-Buster’s-loving rookie nicknamed “Bambi” to the future of the NBA.

Ross Geiger, assistant video coordinator: So, Dave & Buster’s. First of all, he would get a sugar high off a Coke or a lemonade. He’d be running around like all the other kids, bumping into kids at times. I was like, “Calm down, we’ll get to the machines.”

Josh Oppenheimer, assistant coach: There was this childlike exuberance and innocence to him.

Geiger: We never really did anything that would require teamwork. He would always want to, in his words, “bust my ass.” He’d be like, “Let’s go over to the table hockey. I’ll bust your ass.”

Oppenheimer: What Giannis would do is he would learn a new phrase and then he would use it forever, in every context. Like, he could “bust your ass” at eating food.

Chris Wright, forward: There was one song that came out, and at the beginning they’d say, “Where they at doe?” Every time you’d see Giannis, no matter what was said, he’d say, “Where they at doe?” He would tap somebody and say, “Where they at doe,” and start laughing and running around.

Geiger: If I won the first game (at Dave & Buster’s), he’d be like, “No, no, no. Another one.” If we ran out of money on the card, he’d reach in his pocket and put $5 in and be like, “We’re playing this game right now.” He’d get into it. Almost cause a scene, yelling. Here’s this guy running around in these size-17 Air Force Ones and all Milwaukee Bucks gear who can’t wait to get to the next game.

Oppenheimer: Everything was just new to him.

Caron Butler, forward: He was learning in real time, right in front of you.

Geiger: I took him to a place called Castles N’ Coasters in Phoenix. He loved the machines that had the pop-outs where you had to hit the pop-outs really fast. Animals would pop out of the hole, and he’d have to hit them. He was really good at that because he didn’t have to move. He just stands in the middle and moves his arms. He liked those because he liked to get the tickets so he could get candy.

Robert Hackett, strength coach: He was a big kid.

Geiger: He just wanted to play video games, eat pizza and hang out.

Oppenheimer: Just … a kid.

Oppenheimer: I used to joke with him and call him Bambi. “Coach, what is Bambi? Who is Bambi?”

Wright: When I first got there, some of the players were talking and one of the coaches said, “Yo, where’s Bambi?” I was like, “Who is Bambi?”

Oppenheimer: He was arms and legs and hands and desire. But that was it.

Wright: We start practicing and Giannis is out there just clumsy. Ah, that must be Bambi.

Geiger: He was like Bambi that year.

Wright: We were doing a defensive drill. It was a chop-it-up, closeout drill. He did the drill perfect, but when he went to get out of the drill, he tripped and stumbled. He’d say, “I’m good, baby.” That’s all he would say: “I’m good, baby.”

Butler: He wasn’t discouraged by anything.

Wright: Him in the weight room, bro, was so funny. Every time he’d do a couple curls, he would look in the mirror and flex.

Geiger: Trying to see if he was making gains.

Wright: He struggled doing pull-ups, probably because his arms are so long. One day, he knocked out a full set, and he was like, “Greek Freak, baby!” He was yelling and flexing in the mirror. It was hilarious, man.

Hackett: He’d just flex in the mirror, like, “Coach, look at this, it’s getting bigger!”

Wright: He was like, “Did I get bigger, bro?” I was like, “No, Giannis, you’re still the same.”

Butler: Look, I embarrassed the hell out of him one time as a rookie. We took him out, and he had no business being out at a nightspot. We had him doing pushups inside of a lounge … I was like, “Hey, man, you’ve gotta do pushups.” He was just like, “Hey, that don’t bother me. I’m working, I’m getting better.”

Oppenheimer: He had this insatiable desire to get better.

Hackett: One day I was working with him — it was towards the end of his first year — and he said, “Coach, watch, next year I’m going to get better. Every year I get better.”

Oppenheimer: And he had unreal belief in himself — to the point that his rookie year it probably rubbed some veterans the wrong way. He thought he was going to be the guy. He always said that to me: “I’m going to be the man.”

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(Nathaniel S. Butler / NBAE via Getty Images)
 

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Oppenheimer: One day in the summer we had a handful of guys and O.J. Mayo was there. I paired the guys up for shooting. I was like, “You’re with this guy, you’re with this guy, Giannis you’re with O.J.” So the guys break off. He just stands there. He looks at me. “Coach, which one is O.J.?”

Geiger: He had no idea who any of these guys were.

Oppenheimer: We go to Tim Grgurich’s camp in Las Vegas. … We would go to the far basket every morning, and every morning Rick Carlisle would come and watch. It was just me and Giannis and we’d work on some stuff. Rick asked me, “Can I help? Can I talk to Giannis?” I was like, “Of course! You’re Rick Carlisle! Do what you want to do.” So Rick would work with him a little bit. Second day, same thing happened. Third day, same thing happened. Fourth day, we’re walking into the gym and Giannis goes, “Coach, let’s go to a different basket.” I said, “Why?” And he said, “That man is there again. I just want to work with you, coach, and every day, that man, he stops and talks to me. I like him, but I don’t want some man working with me.” I go, “Some man, Giannis?? That’s Rick Carlisle!” And he goes, “But who is Rick Carlisle?”

Geiger: The first time I took him to Walmart, he was like, “What’s Walmart?” I was like, “Well, that’s a good question.” … The first thing that he did, he saw the mobile carts for people. He goes, “I’m for sure using that.” I said, “Those are for people that need them, that have oxygen tanks or any kind of handicap. That’s what those are for.” And he goes, “Well, I need one. I had a long practice today!”

Hackett: I took him to Mayfair Mall. He tripped up because when he got to the food court, there were all the selections. I was like, “Giannis, you can get whatever you want.” He got some chicken burrito or something, and he couldn’t believe how cheap it was. And then he got a smoothie with it. He just loved the stuff.

Oppenheimer: We’re in Las Vegas, and we go to dinner at a buffet. … We walk in and I go, “I’m going to that table. You get what you want and I’ll meet you there.” Well, he comes to the table and his arms are long and his hands are huge. Between his arms and hands, he’s probably walking with six plates. I’m looking at him and he puts the plates down and looks at me: “Coach, what did I do wrong? Did I take too much?” I said, “No, Giannis, you can get as much as you want, but you don’t have to get it all at once.”

Geiger: When we moved him into his first apartment, I took him to Walmart. He was very, very … responsible with his money.

Oppenheimer: Giannis is cheap!

Geiger: He wanted to buy Walmart pillows for like $3.97 rather than a nice pillow.

Oppenheimer: His first year he didn’t have direct deposit. He wanted the (physical) checks every two weeks. … Sometimes he would hold on to them, and then they would come to me: “Josh, he needs to cash this check, he needs to deposit this check, he just has it.”

Geiger: I taught him how to drive.

Oppenheimer: Ross was absolutely terrific with Giannis.

Geiger: He’s a quick learner with everything. He’s very competitive, and he’s a perfectionist. When I say he’s a competitor, he used to grade my parking job. Once I taught him how to park a vehicle, he’d get out of the car and be like, “That’s not a good parking job.” And then once he started driving us around, he’d be like, “See, I parked better than you.”

Hackett: When he first came in the parking lot, there was snow so everybody was like, “Man, don’t hit my car.” These guys have Mercedes and stuff out there. And here comes Giannis.

Geiger: I had a ’98 Subaru, so that’s what we drove around Milwaukee.

Oppenheimer: John Hammond would let him drive his car around the parking lot.

Geiger: I would tell him, “Hey, you’ve got to indicate or you need to slow down; there’s a yield sign.” We lived in St. Francis, so there wasn’t a ton of traffic at the time, and he’d get a little lazy. Every so often, I would do something wrong that I had told him he had to do, and he would start correcting me: “Hey, you didn’t do that!”

Oppenheimer: He has unbelievable confidence but also unbelievable humility. I think he has a great ability to be honest with himself about what he needs to improve at to reach the level he wants to reach.

Wright: He introduced himself to me — this was the funniest thing. I said, “What’s up, man? I’m Chris.” He goes, “I’m Giannis. The Greek Freak.” I was laughing like, “Who the hell is the Greek Freak?” He was like, “Me, baby, I’ll show you.” And he flexed.

Oppenheimer: He would be on the bus and just start going, “I’m the fukking man, I’m the fukking man.” It was the phrase of the day.

Wright: That was just his mentality all the time.

Oppenheimer: We had Caron Butler, and he would go at Caron every day. Caron would traditionally get the best of him, but he was not going to back down.

Butler: He used to guard me all the time. I was like, “Bring your ass over here so I can bust your young ass. Come on.” He was just so relentless.

Oppenheimer: After he played in the rookie-sophomore game (during All-Star Weekend), he comes back. We’re just happy he played in the game. We’re just happy he got picked. He’s furious. I’m like, “What is the matter?” He’s like, “I have something for Nate McMillan.” I’m like, “What are you talking about? What did he do?” And he said, “He played me the least. He doesn’t think I’m good.”

Scott Williams, assistant coach: One of the things he used to have to do was make strings of free throws. You’d have to make nine in a row before you could leave the practice floor. Sometimes Giannis would get so frustrated, and we would be there for such a long time. You would think after 45 minutes or an hour, he’d be like, “OK, that’s enough for the day.” But he was determined.

Sean Sweeney, assistant coach: You could tell him, “Do this until I tell you to stop.” And he would do it.

Oppenheimer: I just always remember him looking at me or another coach with a serious look, and you can picture the use of his hands like, “Come on, give me the ball. We’re doing it again. I don’t need a fukking pep talk, I don’t need correction, let’s do it again.”

Wright: We were playing one-on-one and there were six spots to see who could get the most wins out of the six spots. There was one day where Giannis didn’t win a spot. He was pissed off, he was mad at us, he didn’t want to talk to nobody. He just left. We played again the next day, and he won all six spots. After that, he started running around the court, yelling, jumping on the scorer’s table, taking off his shirt.

Jane Gallop, professor at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee: I’m a pretty serious Bucks fan. This story wouldn’t exist if that were not true.

dikk Blau, professor at UW-Milwaukee and Gallop’s partner: It was the first bitterly cold day of winter. It felt like it was 20 degrees. We were driving home, and we saw this lanky guy loping down the street.

Gallop: He was running and wearing a windbreaker. Like one of those little nylon windbreakers. I say to dikk, “Can we give him a ride? That’s Giannis.” He’s running in the street so we pulled up next to him, rolled down the car window and said, “Do you want a ride?” And he said, “Are you going to the Bradley Center?”

Blau: We got him into the backseat of our tiny car. It was incredible.

Gallop: The car we drove was a Honda Fit. They are very small. He climbed in the back seat of that car, and he was folded in some way that he fit there. He was like curled into the seat.

Blau: There are some Picasso drawings with women and their arms in impossible positions. It was kind of like that.

Gallop: So he gets in the car and we’re driving to the Bradley Center and I say to him, “You have to get a winter jacket!” That was my first response. And he said, “I don’t have any money, I sent all my money to my parents.”

Oppenheimer: His family wasn’t here with him, so he would Western Union money back to Greece. He goes to Western Union after shoot-around and sends money home. Well, he sent all his money, and he didn’t have a driver’s license yet or a car. He realized he had no way to get to the arena. So he ran.

Gallop: We get to the Bradley Center. He gets out of the back seat. I get out and shake his hand. I ask him for an autograph, and I asked him to give it to me both in English and in Greek. Then he said thank you and I said goodbye.

Blau: He was very, very sweet.

Oppenheimer: I’m pulling into the arena and get out. He’s getting out of this car and goes, “Hey, Coach!” I’m like, “Who is that?” He goes, “I don’t know. Oh, but they’re very nice,” and told me the story. I said, “Giannis. You can’t get into the car with people you don’t know!” But to him they were nice people.

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(Jesse D. Garrabrant / NBAE via Getty Images)

Jay Namoc, equipment manager: There are a lot of sneaker stories.

Oppenheimer: Jay comes into my office after practice and goes, “You’ve got to talk to Giannis.” I said, “What’s wrong? What’s the problem?” He goes, “Nike sent like 100 pairs of shoes for him.” And I said, “OK, so what’s the problem?” And he goes, “He wants to take them all home. He doesn’t want me to store them in the storeroom. He wants all of them.”

Namoc: I told Giannis, “With Nike, you’re allowed to get six to 12 pairs of shoes a month. Just let me know how many you’re going to go through a month and which ones you like.” He was like, “Order all of them. I want all of them.” I was like, “All right, which ones do you want to wear?” He was like, “I just want to wear this one. But I want all of them.”

Oppenheimer: He says, “Coach, they’re mine!” I said, “Giannis, you can wear a pair every day. They’re yours.” He said, “No, coach, that’s not it. I want to put them in my apartment and set them up everywhere.” I was like, “Set them up everywhere? There’s nowhere to set them up.”

Namoc: He wanted his closet to look like a Foot Locker.

Oppenheimer: He said, “I’m going to set them up like they do on ‘MTV Cribs.’” And he just started laughing.

Geiger: He would be like, “Ross, I’m going to pull up the car. I’ve got some stuff and then we’ll go.” I always knew that was shoe day…We’d put in this gigantic box filled with 12 to 15 shoes. We’d carry them up to his apartment. He’d drop the box in the middle of his living room, and he’d go through every box. He’d take them out of the box and look at them; they were the same shoe, same model, just different colors. He got so excited about it.

Namoc: To him, they were precious.

Oppenheimer: His rookie year, he wore like two pairs of shoes. Finally, the trainers were like, “He has to put a new pair of shoes on.”

Geiger: One of the coolest things Giannis ever did was after the Phoenix game. I was losing my father to cancer the year I was with Giannis. He knew I was going through a tough time. … He came over the night before the game and got to meet my family and everyone got to put a face to the name of this Bucks rookie that was always with me. My parents would call me: “What are you doing?” “I’m with Giannis.” “Where you at?” “I’m with Giannis.” Wherever I went, he went. He ended up giving my dad the shoes he wore that night. Well, the shoes he gave my dad he wore like 50 of the 82 games that season. I still have those shoes, and it’s funny. I just moved into a house and I was going through things, so I took a look at them again. There’s like little holes in the shoes and huge scuff marks.

Geiger: Just five or six years ago, we were walking down the streets of Milwaukee after a game and everyone couldn’t have cared less.

Wright: I just love to see everything he’s doing now, man.

Sweeney: Greatness is not something you do one time. It’s what you do every single day. And that kid is great and shows his greatness by how he conducts himself all. the. time.

Oppenheimer: Last summer, he brought me to Milwaukee to train him for a few weeks. He picked me up at the hotel in the first car he bought. It’s a 2010 Tahoe.

Butler: Always working, always grinding, always staying true to the craft.

Oppenheimer: It wasn’t what everybody thought he could be or thought he wasn’t. It was him. It was what’s inside of him. And I think that’s what it’s always going to be.
 

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Joe Alleva was leaving the home of a wealthy donor in Roxboro, N.C., that Monday afternoon when he got the momentous phone call. It was from David Falk, the powerful NBA agent who represented Michael Jordan, among many other players. Falk also worked for a couple of college coaches, including Duke’s Mike Krzyzewski. The cell reception was spotty and the call got dropped a few of times, but Falk’s message came through loud and clear.

“We’ve talked to the Lakers,” he said. “They’re interested in Mike, and they’re ready to open up their checkbook.”

The words entered Alleva’s ear, spiked his heart and socked his gut. He had first come to Duke in 1976 to work in the university’s finance office and then moved to athletics in 1980, the year Krzyzewski was hired. He was now in his sixth year as athletic director, and he knew better than anyone how much Krzyzewski meant to the school. “He was the bell cow,” Alleva says. “We were in terrible shape financially. Mike was the guy that gave us a lot of prestige and brought in a lot of money. David wanted an answer right away, but I knew we were limited in what we could do for him.”

That call happened on June 28, 2004. As the days crawled toward the long Fourth of July weekend, the specter of Coach K declaring his independence from Duke became a real possibility, and a national story. Falk also knew how much Krzyzewski mattered to the school, and he was determined to optimize that leverage. As if Alleva’s task wasn’t daunting enough, he faced the additional complication that the university’s new president, Richard Brodhead, was beginning his tenure that very day. Alleva drove the 30 miles back to Duke as fast as he could and went straight into the new president’s office to break the news.

This was not the first time Krzyzewski had flirted with the NBA. In 1990, he took several days to consider an offer from the Boston Celtics, mostly out of respect for Dave Gavitt, the team’s CEO. Krzyzewski’s decision to stay in Durham proved wise when he led the Blue Devils to NCAA championships in the next two seasons. Now, 14 years later, he was ready to flirt again. “I was 57 at that time, and I felt I had at least another decade of coaching ahead of me,” Krzyzewski says. “We had accomplished a good amount in college. So it’s like, should I try something different?”

In the end, of course, there was no revolution. Krzyzewski elected to remain at Duke, but only after a hectic and harrowing few days, during which Krzyzewski hunkered down in his house while ESPN and sports radio airwaves were saturated with will-he-stay-or-will-he-go conjecture. In the end, things worked out well for everyone. The Lakers, who were heading into a rebuild after losing to the Pistons in the 2004 NBA Finals and about to break up the Shaq/Kobe duo, hired Rudy Tomjanovich, but health issues forced him to step down the following February. So the team brought back Phil Jackson, who coached the Lakers to two more titles in 2009 and ’10. Krzyzewski also won two more NCAA titles in 2010 and ’15, and in 2011 he surpassed his college coach Bob Knight on the NCAA’s all-time wins list. One year after turning down the Lakers, Krzyzewski was named the head coach of USA Basketball’s national team and subsequently coached a team of elite NBA players to three Olympic gold medals. Now 73, Krzyzewski remains full of energy and at the top of his game. On Nov. 25, his Blue Devils will once again begin the season ranked in the top 10 of most preseason polls.

As it turned out, that week-long immersion with the Lakers was the closest Krzyzewski ever came to leaving Duke. We’ll never know how things might have otherwise turned out, but at this moment, sandwiched as we are between yet another Lakers title and yet another Duke basketball season under Krzyzewski, it is worth addressing a titillating question:

What if, after pondering that age-old midlife question – Should I try something different? – Coach K had decided that yes, in fact, he should?

Mitch Kupchak knew all about the checkered history of college coaches flaming out in the NBA. Jerry Tarkanian in San Antonio. John Calipari in New Jersey. Rick Pitino in Boston. Tim Floyd in Chicago. Yet as Kupchak, the Lakers’ general manager, sought to replace Jackson, he decided he should offer the job to a well-respected college coach who had the ability to defy that history and lead the Lakers back to greatness.

So he called Roy Williams.

Actually, that’s not exactly true. His first call was to Dean Smith, who was Kupchak’s coach at North Carolina from 1972 to ’76. Kupchak wanted to make sure Smith was OK with Kupchak trying to pry away his alma mater’s head coach. “Go ahead,” Smith said, “but I don’t think he’ll do it.”

Kupchak didn’t think so either, but he called Williams anyway. The courtship lasted just one phone call. Williams said thanks but no thanks.

So Kupchak turned his sights to his second choice. He informed Lakers owner Jerry Buss of his intentions to pursue Krzyzewski, but he cautioned Buss that Krzyzewski most likely would turn them down as well. Kupchak didn’t know Krzyzewski, but he did know Falk. After some good-natured teasing about a North Carolina grad trying to hire the Duke coach, Falk promised he would deliver the message to his client.

Falk did not negotiate Krzyzewski’s contracts with Duke — he only represented the coach for marketing deals — but he had long believed Krzyzewski was underpaid and under-appreciated. The coach was making around $2 million a year and had been facing resistance to the idea of building a privately funded, state-of-the-art practice facility, which Krzyzewski believed was vital to the program’s long-term success. With a new president coming on board, Falk, ever the wily negotiator, thought a shot across the bow was in order.

Falk warned Kupchak that he and his client wouldn’t be interested unless the Lakers made Krzyzewski the highest-paid coach in the NBA. He set up a four-way conference call with Kupchak and Buss, who was on vacation in Europe. Krzyzewski nearly dropped the phone when the team laid out its offer: a guaranteed five-year contract worth $40 million. When Krzyzewski expressed concern that leaving Duke would jeopardize the community learning center he was trying to build in downtown Durham in his late mother’s name, Buss assured him that he would see to it that the project was finished. Krzyzewski promised to think it over.

That conversation necessitated Falk’s dropping the bomb on Alleva. The following night, a Tuesday, Krzyzewski went to dinner with Alleva and Brodhead inside a private penthouse dining club near campus. During the course of the meal, Alleva tackled the twin challenges of persuading his basketball coach he should stay, and his new president that the coach was worth keeping. “I think Brodhead understood Mike’s value to the athletic department, but I don’t know if he understood Mike’s full value to the whole university,” Alleva says. “I told him, ‘This guy is a tremendous asset. You can’t put a price tag on the publicity he’s bringing to the school.’”

The next day, Krzyzewski called Kupchak and invited him to Durham so they could discuss the matter in person. It occurred to Kupchak that Krzyzewski and Falk were using the Lakers to shake the trees at Duke, but he trusted that Falk would not let him fly across the country if Krzyzewski’s interest wasn’t legit. Mostly, he was grateful for the chance to make his pitch. “The idea is to do whatever you can to get in front of somebody because you never know,” Kupchak says. “At least you’re getting to bat. There’s always the small percentage you might say the right thing, and all of a sudden that person may feel closer to saying yes.”

Kupchak met with Falk, Krzyzewski and Krzyzewski’s wife, Mickie, at their Durham home that Thursday. They spent several hours talking about the NBA, the Lakers and all that the job would entail. One of the few university employees who spent time at the house was Mike Cragg, an associate athletic director who is now the AD at St. John’s. Cragg did not participate in any of the talks with the Lakers, but he could tell things were moving fast. “There was never a point where I thought he was going to leave,” Cragg recalls, “but I could see there was a case to be made.”

To that point, all of these conversations had been conducted in secret. That changed in a hurry that Thursday afternoon, when ESPN’s Jim Gray broke the news that the Lakers had discussed their vacancy with Coach K. Gray initially learned about it from Kobe Bryant, whom Gray had known for all of Kobe’s life, dating to Gray’s salad days working in Philadelphia as a reporter and part-time scout for the San Diego Clippers. Gray later moved to L.A. and spent countless hours with Bryant while covering the NBA for NBC Sports.

Gray was not surprised to hear the Lakers were going after Krzyzewski, given that Bryant always said that if he had gone to college, he would have chosen Duke. “He had Coach K in his head for a long time,” Gray says. After getting tipped off by Kobe, Gray confirmed the story with Kupchak and Buss, as well as Jerry West and Chuck Daly, who knew all the principals. When he went on the air with what he knew, all hell broke loose.

Kupchak was not surprised the story leaked, nor was he particularly displeased. “It sent a message to our fans that at least we were trying to hit a home run,” he says. The development was not as well received at Duke, whose administrators were forced to scramble. Alleva participated in a hastily arranged news conference inside Cameron Indoor Stadium, even though at that point he wasn’t certain the Lakers had offered Krzyzewski the job. The Lakers’ head of public relations, John Black, reached out to Duke sports information director Jon Jackson to ask some questions about Krzyzewski, just in case he had to stage an introductory news conference in L.A. Jackson helped out his counterpart in good faith, then hung up the phone and thought, Boy, I hope that doesn’t happen.

Later that night, about 100 students held a vigil in Krzyzewskiville, the lawn outside Cameron where students pitch tents to attend games. They were joined for a time by Brodhead, who in a rather unpresidential moment addressed the crowd with a bullhorn and stood by as they chanted “Stay K Stay!” toward the balcony outside the coach’s sixth-floor office.

Gray’s report forced Krzyzewski to bivouac at home. His oldest daughter, Debbie, the only one of his three daughters in town, brought in food from KFC and other fast-food joints. Because Brodhead, who had previously served as the president of Yale, had just arrived and had no real knowledge of how big-time college athletics worked, Alleva was left to work with the Board of Trustees to sweeten Krzyzewski’s deal. He was able to increase the coach’s salary and nearly double what his assistants were making, as well as offer a deeper commitment to the practice facility.

Alleva came to the house on Friday to meet with Krzyzewski and Falk. Everyone knew the school couldn’t compete with Jerry Buss’ checkbook, so Alleva had to emphasize the perks the Lakers couldn’t counter: the chance to mentor young players, lead a program where he had build so much equity, and stay in an area where his daughters and grandchildren lived. “We couldn’t match the money, so the only thing we could match was his love for Duke,” Alleva says. “Mike is a great family guy, and in his heart, he’s always been a teacher and a mentor.”

After Alleva left, Krzyzewski and Falk talked it over. “I’m not a neutral adviser,” Falk says. “It’s my job to be an advocate and recommend a position.” Falk told Krzyzewski he should stay at Duke. First of all, Falk knew just how bad the tension was between Bryant and Shaquille O’Neal, and he believed O’Neal would not be back with the Lakers. (That proved prophetic when O’Neal was traded to the Miami Heat on July 14.) He also agreed with Alleva that Krzyzewski was better suited to coaching college players and living near his family. “I can’t tell you to turn down $40 million,” Falk said. “You can take the money, but I don’t think you’ll be as happy.”

Krzyzewski ruminated through the weekend. By Sunday night, he had made up his mind, but he wanted to sleep on it. The next morning, July 5, he called Kupchak and told him he was turning down the Lakers. He called Brodhead next, and then Alleva, whose sigh of relief could be heard for miles. “It was,” he says, “like winning the national championship.”

They called a news conference for 5 p.m. so Krzyzewski could explain his decision. “You have to follow your heart and lead with it,” he said. “Duke has always taken up my whole heart, and no matter how good some other option was, to lead my team with all my heart could only happen at this place.”

Asked last week about this episode 16 years ago, Krzyzewski indicated if the Lakers were not headed for such a big rebuild, he might have taken an even closer look. “A huge factor was whether or not they could keep Kobe and Shaq together,” he said. “I felt that not everything was being done by everybody to make that happen, which I thought was kind of strange.” Even so, there is no doubt in his mind that he made the right decision, even if it did take some fireworks to get there. “I didn’t know how close it would be, and then it got very strong because you’re talking about generational type of money,” he said. “My family and I just felt that we loved Duke and loved what we were doing. And then a few months later I got offered the USA Basketball job. So the hand we sought to play ended up being really good.”
 

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So then: What if he had said yes?

Krzyzewski’s first season in L.A. would have been challenging, to say the least. Not only did the team trade Shaq, but it also dealt Rick Fox and Gary Payton. Karl Malone, who had come to L.A. the year before, retired. That meant four of the top six scorers were gone from a team that had made the NBA Finals. The O’Neal trade brought in Lamar Odom, Caron Butler and Brian Grant, but the Lakers still missed the playoffs in 2005 (and lost in the first round in the two seasons after that). It’s hard to imagine they would have fared much better early on under Krzyzewski.

Things would have improved as better players arrived — specifically Pau Gasol in 2007 — but Krzyzewski would not have had the same equity out of the gate as Jackson had when he returned in 2005. That might have stirred up the old college-guys-can’t-coach-in-the-pros narrative, although Buss probably wouldn’t have been swayed by that. “Dr. Buss didn’t bend with the media and public opinion,” Kupchak says. “He had the confidence to be patient. I’m sure he would have said, this guy is smart, he knows what he’s doing, I’m going to roll with him a while.”

Jackson and Krzyzewski have said hello a couple of times while crossing paths at Michael Jordan’s fantasy basketball camp in Las Vegas, but they don’t know each other well. Jackson thinks highly of what Krzyzewski has done at Duke, but he believes the coach would have had to make some significant adjustments, particularly on the defensive end. “His teams at Duke are really aggressive defensively and take a lot of charges, and that’s a tough sell in the NBA,” Jackson says. “I only saw Kobe take a couple of charges in his whole career. I asked him why and he said he got hit in the groin once and was in pain for about a week, so he stopped. So that’s something Coach K would have had to adjust to.”

Unlike most other college coaches who made the leap to the NBA, however, Krzyzewski had previous experience coaching NBA players as an assistant with the 1992 Dream Team. That allowed him to learn from Chuck Daly about the best ways to manage pros. Krzyzewski would have also entered the Lakers’ locker room with unequivocal support from Bryant. Combine all that with Krzyzewski’s superlative people skills, and it’s hard to imagine he wouldn’t have found a way to get the job done.

“I think he would have been great,” Butler says. “That would have been a great marriage, Kobe and Coach K. You’re talking about two guys that are addicted to winning. All the players I know who went to Duke say Coach K is an amazing communicator. Even though he had his system at Duke, he would have done his research and adapted to our skill sets.”

Alleva, meanwhile, jokes that he wouldn’t have had to hire Krzyzewski’s replacement because “they probably would have fired me.” Because he was so focused on preventing that outcome, he never gave any thought to a successor, much less had substantive conversations about it. “The first thing I would have done is ask Mike who he thinks I should hire,” Alleva says. “That would have been interesting.”

At the time two former Duke point guards and assistants were college head coaches — Tommy Amaker at Michigan and Quin Snyder at Missouri — while another former assistant, Mike Brey, had just completed his fourth season as the coach at Notre Dame. Pressed to consider his options, Alleva says his first move would have been to name associate head coach Johnny Dawkins as the interim head coach, just so there would have been someone steering the ship. Dawkins, however, says he would have probably wanted to go to L.A. with Krzyzewski, which in turn could have forced Alleva’s hand. “Johnny not being a head coach would have been the biggest negative,” Alleva says. “In a prestigious job like that, it’s hard to have never been a head coach at some level. But I have high regards for Johnny. I’ve known him since he was 18 years old. So I might have given him the job at that point.”

Jackson spent the 2004-05 season traveling and decompressing, but he was only 59 and had plenty of suitors. Before he came back to the Lakers he had been approached by several NBA teams, including Cleveland, Sacramento and Memphis. He also spoke with Isiah Thomas, the Knicks’ president of basketball operations, about coaching in New York, where Jackson played for 11 years and won two NBA titles. “Isiah and I weren’t really on the same page, but that’s a job I probably would have taken,” Jackson says.

Maybe the most intriguing question is what would have happened with respect to USA Basketball. Much like the Lakers, that program was in deep distress after failing to win gold at the 2004 Olympics in Greece. The following year, USA Basketball hired Jerry Colangelo, the former general manager of the Phoenix Suns, to be its executive director. Colangelo’s first duty was to name a head coach. His top two candidates were Krzyzewski and Gregg Popovich of the San Antonio Spurs. They were both great coaches, but Colangelo liked the idea of bringing in someone from the college ranks because he was “kind of neutral.” So on Oct. 26, 2005, he tapped Krzyzewski to be the new head coach of Team USA.

Would Colangelo have made that same decision if Krzyzewski had left Duke for the Lakers? “I’m not quite sure,” he says. “The easy thing would have been to go to Pop, because the reasons I liked about selecting Mike would have dissipated a little bit. He would have been pretty entrenched and involved with starting something new.”

When Krzyzewski said no to the Lakers, he had no idea he was preserving a chance to have the most fulfilling experience of his professional career. Coaching the U.S. was the ultimate honor for this West Point graduate and grandson of Polish immigrants. It didn’t pay him a dime, but it gave him the opportunity he always sought: to coach the world’s greatest players. It also helped his Duke program immensely, not just with recruiting but also by broadening his knowledge and invigorating his career at an age when most people are easing into retirement.

Today, Krzyzewski is the highest-paid college coach in the country, with an annual salary of around $9 million. The Emily Krzyzewski Center opened in 2006, and a $15 million, 56,000-square-foot practice facility, named the Michael W. Krzyzewski Center, was completed in 2008. Best of all, Krzyzewski has done all this while living within a few miles of his three daughters and nine grandchildren, one of whom is a sophomore walk-on guard for the Blue Devils. And in three weeks, Coach K will begin his 41st season at Duke with a loaded roster and a full heart, ready once more to play the hand he chose.
 
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