Official Syrian Conflict Thread

[Duppy]

Making the opposition to his rule a black or white choice between Assad's police state on one hand or AQ/ISIS on the other was a key imperative of the regime - but its a fact that opposition towards Assad far extended far aside those narrow choices at the start of this whole affair. Of course, there is no credible alternative now, but thats exactly how the regime wanted it. Their survival was also a result of their international backers having far more skin in the game ( Russia, Iran, Hezb and IRGC militias).


In any case, the final outcome is a disaster for Syria and Syrian people. I expect the genocidal police state to even become more North Korea like in its latest incarnation. He's already setting the terrain for a greater cult of personality constructed around his family - the future rulers of Syria Its only a matter of time before their brutal suppression of the majority of the country will lead to another war.

Arguably the takfiris had already taken over the revolution by 2012, with groups like Liwa al-Islam (later known as Jaysh al-Islam, the biggest and most powerful rebel group in Damascus) and Ahrar al-Sham having been established in late 2011, and with al-Nusra coming in in 2012

Also something to note that the original leaders of Ahrar al-Sham and Zahran Alloush all knew each other from Sednaya and the Gulf states HEAVILY pressured the government to release them, especially Alloush You can say all the things about the Ba'ath doing this and that to make things like this but the rebel sponsors had their hands on it as well. Alloush's links to Saudi Arabia before the war are well-known by now and he even studied in a Saudi university, thus he would've made for a very nice pro-Saudi puppet.

Too bad he just couldn't resist talking about cleansing the rafidah (Shias) and gassing the Kurds like Saddam did in interviews


As for the rest of your post, I agree. However things have always been like this, Assad isn't really doing anything different from his predecessors. This horserace shyt was in place in the 90s and earlier as well, with some dude who beat Bassel (Bashar's now deceased brother) in a horse race getting locked up for 20 years because he dared to do it. Again, I don't think that the Ba'ath is good, nor do I think the government's eventual victory will lead to longterm stability. I just think that they're better than the rebels who would look to slaughter around 30% of Syria's total population if they could.

 

[thatrapsfan]

Arguably the takfiris had already taken over the revolution by 2012, with groups like Liwa al-Islam (later known as Jaysh al-Islam, the biggest and most powerful rebel group in Damascus) and Ahrar al-Sham having been established in late 2011, and with al-Nusra coming in in 2012

Also something to note that the original leaders of Ahrar al-Sham and Zahran Alloush all knew each other from Sednaya and the Gulf states HEAVILY pressured the government to release them, especially Alloush You can say all the things about the Ba'ath doing this and that to make things like this but the rebel sponsors had their hands on it as well. Alloush's links to Saudi Arabia before the war are well-known by now and he even studied in a Saudi university, thus he would've made for a very nice pro-Saudi puppet.

Too bad he just couldn't resist talking about cleansing the rafidah (Shias) and gassing the Kurds like Saddam did in interviews


As for the rest of your post, I agree. However things have always been like this, Assad isn't really doing anything different from his predecessors. This horserace shyt was in place in the 90s and earlier as well, with some dude who beat Bassel (Bashar's now deceased brother) in a horse race getting locked up for 20 years because he dared to do it. Again, I don't think that the Ba'ath is good, nor do I think the government's eventual victory will lead to longterm stability. I just think that they're better than the rebels who would look to slaughter around 30% of Syria's total population if they could.

There's no argument that the most effective and best equipped rebel forces were often extremists, but that does not mean the only people who opposed/disliked Assad's rule were extremists ( which is the logical leap the regime and its supporters will always make). The crowd sizes in 2011 and the locations of the protests tell the story ( even the Druze came out in considerable numbers then)

Who said anything about this being new? His predecessor is his *father* and the family's brutality and police state repression is only comparable to Saddam's in the region. What exactly is the main difference between Saddam's style of governance and the Assad's btw? Does the fact that many of the most effective armed opposition movements to his rule were sectarian, justify his repression of Iraq's majority? Its the exact same logic, only in reverse, as far as religious dynamics go.

 

[Pressure]

So the Americans are saying Trump made this decision after his call with Erdogan The Gulf coalition is probably angry, but will make do. Assad will be back in the Arab League by Summer 2019.

 

[thatrapsfan]

Damn Erdogan won. Getting the Patriot Missiles and the Russian system AND getting a free run at the SDF/YPG if the Americans withdraw.

Im most interested in what future Syria-Turkey relations will look like when the Arab states normalize their relations with Assad?

 

[Pressure]

Damn Erdogan won. Getting the Patriot Missiles and the Russian system AND getting a free run at the SDF/YPG if the Americans withdraw.

Im most interested in what future Syria-Turkey relations will look like when the Arab states normalize their relations with Assad?

He flipped that Khashoggi tape into Aces

 

[thatrapsfan]

He flipped that Khashoggi tape into Aces

Im skeptical that they will drop the Khashoggi case. They continue to view the UAE/Egypt/Saudi alliance as a strategic threat to their aspirations to lead the region and it gives them major leverage.

These developments help them, but dont address that challenge.

EDIT:

This was leaked by Turkish media today Turkish media leaks more images of Khashoggi murder suspects

 

[Berniewood Hogan]

Trump didn't tell anybody in the US government before that tweet

 

[BillBanneker]

Trump's gotta be doing all this cause of the Flynn Sentencing.

 

[Entropy Fan]

Iran, Russia and the Alawites won.

But biafra lost.


Living vicariously thru other states.


Iran and Russia are dying states they are gonna be on their own if this war breaks out again in the future.

 

[Entropy Fan]

Im skeptical that they will drop the Khashoggi case. They continue to view the UAE/Egypt/Saudi alliance as a strategic threat to their aspirations to lead the region and it gives them major leverage.

These developments help them, but dont address that challenge.

EDIT:

This was leaked by Turkish media today Turkish media leaks more images of Khashoggi murder suspects

There isn't much Trump could offer to get them to drop khashoggi case.

If mbs gets pushed out, the Saudi/UAE alliance will weaken dramatically as most of the house of saud dispises the UAE interference into their internal royal court when they propped up mbs.

 

[thatrapsfan]

This analyst called it

 

[ZoeGod]

Now the Kurds are about to have a train run on them from Assad/Russia on one side and on the other side Turkey/TFSA. Russia and Turkey won in Syria. And Iran at anytime can send their forces and proxies to syria via flight.

 

[The Odum of Ala Igbo]

But biafra lost.


Living vicariously thru other states.


Iran and Russia are dying states they are gonna be on their own if this war breaks out again in the future.

But Igbos won. We’re wealthier, healthier and more educated than the Northern losers who supposedly won the war. And now they’re killing each other with Boko Haram and Fulani herders

Stay mad because Nigeria will collapse in a few decades you hideous Cac

 

[The Odum of Ala Igbo]

Damn Erdogan won. Getting the Patriot Missiles and the Russian system AND getting a free run at the SDF/YPG if the Americans withdraw.

Im most interested in what future Syria-Turkey relations will look like when the Arab states normalize their relations with Assad?

I can’t see Turkey giving up the canton they seized. This will be tricky since it’s a clear violation of international law. But, since Crimea, states apparently can seize territory again

 

[Duppy]

I can’t see Turkey giving up the canton they seized. This will be tricky since it’s a clear violation of international law. But, since Crimea, states apparently can seize territory again

Turkey doesn't care too much for the area itself, nor does Turkey care about the areas east of the Euphrates in the longterm; Their goal is simply to de-kurdify these areas, as Afrin especially has been a PKK stronghold for decades in the sense that tons of PKK fighters have come from Afrin and the PKK even had camps in Afrin in the 90s back when Hafez was hosting the PKK to fukk with Turkey. They've already started resettling IDPs from Ghouta in there and most likely will do similar stuff with the east of Euphrates areas they end up taking over. The end goal is to make sure KCK can't ever take root in these areas again rather than annex or even hold the areas de facto for extended periods of time.

At least in my opinion