Possible map of the operation, extremely unconfirmed as of now but it makes sense, it's a buffer zone, covers the Kurdish areas east of the Euphrates and effectively leaves the YPG with nothing to fight over since the rest of the area is unpopulated desert or majority Arab.
Official Syrian Conflict Thread
Possible map of the operation, extremely unconfirmed as of now but it makes sense, it's a buffer zone, covers the Kurdish areas east of the Euphrates and effectively leaves the YPG with nothing to fight over since the rest of the area is unpopulated desert or majority Arab.
Birnin Zana
Honorary Wakandan
Kurds have been negotiating with Assad since late summer. With this recent development, a deal with him is their only shot at getting anything out this conflict.
It’s either that or they roll the dice against Turkey. The latter will be worse than Afrin. They have no choice but to make a deal with Damascus.
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I want America to always have the upper hand in any conflict that rejects its enemies the space to thrive.
Ultimately, this is a bad decision.
Ultimately, this is a bad decision.
Secure Da Bag
Veteran
In this
We were never the good guys in Syria
In this conflict. America created its enemies, future enemies and left with nothing but losses based on a shytty foreign policy far too reliant on Israeli and Saudi internal affairs.
We were never the good guys in Syria
Blue areas are the areas Turkey is supposedly taking over, yellow is SDF who the US was backing up until now, and red is the Syrian government.
Secure Da Bag
Veteran
How much of that yellow does the YPG/Kurds keep/hold? Do you think?
Well, all the Kurdish areas are in the blue patch but
Realistically speaking, the YPG IS the SDF in large parts, and the PYD controls pretty much everything about the whole ordeal. They make up anywhere from like 30% to over 50% of the total numbers of the SDF, and the numbers of Arabs in the alliance have long been suspected to be exaggerated for political reasons.I suspect the various Arab allies the PYD has gained will turn on them, with the possible exception of Jaysh al-Thuwar, an oldschool FSA group who allied with the YPG originally around 2013 (Groups that make up the merger group Jaysh al-Thuwar anyways), mostly due to their sour relations with the "green rebels" complete with old videos from Idlib where rebels brag about hunting down Jaysh al-Thuwar cells and some groups even wowing to behead any members they catch
The only real option they have is accepting whatever crumbs Assad is willing to throw at them, because they're fukked if this goes through. KRG is at full capacity, the IDP camps are already overflowing in SDF territory, and there is no system in place to accomodate for them in government-held areas either. A lot of lives will be ruined if the Turkish operation goes through sadly.
newworldafro
DeeperThanRapBiggerThanHH
ZoeGod
I’m from Brooklyn a place where stars are born.
The withdrawal is a good thing, and arguably overdue. ISIS is toast, so there is no reason for the US or any other western power to stick around. Hell, they shouldn't have meddled in the first place, but that mistake is seven years in the past. The real reason Obama didn’t go all in in removing Assad simply because what happened in Libya. Libya is in total anarchy. Syria would have Libya times 1000.
Secondly this whole notion that if the US leaves ISIS will come out the woodwork is overblown because ISIS at its peak was fighting everybody. Russia,Iran,Turkey and their proxies on the ground fought ISIS too and won’t let that happen. So let the regional powers deal with the remnant of ISIS. Plus the US has forces still in Iraq to deal with ISIS.
The real reason why US forces were still there was to prevent Iranian influence which made no sense because Iran with their Shia proxies been had influence on the ground. They never had a plan to stop this influence. They were not bombing or fighting Iranian proxies and forces. Now the rumor is Iran said they will withdraw from Syria after the US does it first. Thing is Iran could withdraw all their forces and proxies in 2019 but 6 months send them back to Syria.
Secondly this whole notion that if the US leaves ISIS will come out the woodwork is overblown because ISIS at its peak was fighting everybody. Russia,Iran,Turkey and their proxies on the ground fought ISIS too and won’t let that happen. So let the regional powers deal with the remnant of ISIS. Plus the US has forces still in Iraq to deal with ISIS.
The real reason why US forces were still there was to prevent Iranian influence which made no sense because Iran with their Shia proxies been had influence on the ground. They never had a plan to stop this influence. They were not bombing or fighting Iranian proxies and forces. Now the rumor is Iran said they will withdraw from Syria after the US does it first. Thing is Iran could withdraw all their forces and proxies in 2019 but 6 months send them back to Syria.
ZoeGod
I’m from Brooklyn a place where stars are born.
Pretty much. They have very few leverage left. The YPG is battle hardened but they only defeated ISIS with the help of American air support. They will not bode well with Turkish air superiority and artillery bombing them and swarm of Sunni Arab militias trained by the Turks.
So they either negotiate with Assad or get slaughtered by the Turks and their Sunni Arab proxies.
How many times can you fukk over the Kurds?
This was always going to be the outcome. The YPG and SDF have Syrian army outposts in like Hasakah and another spot in the Northeast. The Russians had close contact with them but they got frustrated with them esp before Afrin.
Erdogan comes out rosy in this. Turkish proxies and small amount of their troops are gonna dominant the northern border areas. It’s gonna be like Northern Cyprus
plus he gets the S-400 and the Patriot at the same time.
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Secure Da Bag
Veteran
At the very least, the US could stabilize those blue and yellow areas for the Kurds while they negotiate with the Syrians.
At the very least, the US could stabilize those blue and yellow areas for the Kurds while they negotiate with the Syrians.
That area is currently under SDF control
That map with blue is areas that is anticipated where the Turks and their proxies will try to take over.
Which is why the Kurdish led groups have to make a deal with the devil they know (Assad) rather than the devil that wants to go no holds barred and eliminate em from the border (Erdogan).