Kenny West
Veteran
This what yall wanted, remember?
Official Biden vs. Trump 2020 General Election Thread (Biden WINS 306 Electoral College Votes)
- Thread starter FAH1223
- Start date
What were the choices again?
Kenny West
Veteran
The choices were [Extremely better than biden and everyone else] ,[much better than biden & UBI], [Better than biden + reparations] , [Better than Biden but kooky spiritualist + reparations], [Better than Biden but snake] hell, should I go through the whole field?
Yall just wanted [Beat trump napping at home in delware while america watches slideshows of Obama] 
enjoySuch a dishonest argument and revisionist.The choices were [Extremely better than biden and everyone else] ,[much better than biden & UBI], [Better than biden + reparations] , [Better than Biden but kooky spiritualist + reparations], [Better than Biden but snake] hell, should I go through the whole field?
Yall just wanted [Beat trump napping at home in delware while america watches slideshows of Obama] 
It was clear who Trump wanted to face.
If that person was the nominee the polls would have already been a lot closer than they are currently, and this hand wringing would have started much earlier.
Your hopping in here with the 'I told you so reeks of bitterness.
Tony D'Amato
It's all about the inches
I don't think u can trust any poll that has Biden winning by more than 3%
Trump Convention Bounce? Calm Down
by Evan Scrimshaw | Aug 29, 2020
Morning Consult has come out with the first post-RNC polling, and apparently everyone is having a meltdown. Showing merely a 6% lead, everyone is focused on the fact that it is showing a 4% bump for Trump – because they’re comparing it to the DNC high for Biden. Here’s some thoughts on this poll.
It’s A 2 Point Bump
Morning Consult has averaged an 8 point lead for Biden for a while now, and now they’re gone to a 10 and then a six. The proper comparison is to the baseline, so it is a two point bump. You can’t compare the DNC high to the RNC one, because the GOP are not just getting the benefit of their bounce, but the benefit of the loss of the Democratic bounce at the same time. In reality, this is a two point bounce, one of the President’s better recent polls, but let’s not overstate what this is.
Biden’s Convention Bounce Faded In A Week
Why are we freaking out about a convention bump when we just saw the convention bounce get tossed away easily? Like, we saw what happened here, and we saw that it just got annihilated in a moment. Hell, in 2016, Peak Trump post RNC had a lead in many polls, whereas his second best poll in months is a D+6. My oh my how people are desperate to make fetch happen.
The Online Polls Frequently Detach From Live Callers
Morning Consult and YouGov both have decent track records, but both are online pollsters who have some methods issues and can frequently show smaller leads than the high quality, live caller polls. The most recent set of those were quite good for Joe Biden, and until those come out and show a big trend for Trump, the panic isn’t really going to be here. We’ve seen trends in online polls before and generally they’re not backed up in either the state polls or live caller national polls, or they’ve reverted back to the Democrats in short order.
Undecideds Still Look Like Democrats
In both YouGov and Morning Consult, the pool of undecideds is full of Blacks and Hispanics, meaning there is little to no evidence that the GOP are going to get a good flow out of that poll of voters. In 2016, the pool of undecideds looked like Republicans, but people like myself didn’t want to believe it because that meant that Hillary’s shaky poll lead was more in danger than we realized. Here, Trump is either at 44% of the vote with a poll of voters where his whites are almost tapped out or at 41% and only “close” because nearly 20% of blacks are undecided, neither of which is good for him.
All in, the President got a pair of good polls today. But in terms of what they mean for the prospects for his reelection, they changed nothing. Gonna need a lot more than a convention bounce to meaningfully move the race.
by Evan Scrimshaw | Aug 29, 2020
Morning Consult has come out with the first post-RNC polling, and apparently everyone is having a meltdown. Showing merely a 6% lead, everyone is focused on the fact that it is showing a 4% bump for Trump – because they’re comparing it to the DNC high for Biden. Here’s some thoughts on this poll.
It’s A 2 Point Bump
Morning Consult has averaged an 8 point lead for Biden for a while now, and now they’re gone to a 10 and then a six. The proper comparison is to the baseline, so it is a two point bump. You can’t compare the DNC high to the RNC one, because the GOP are not just getting the benefit of their bounce, but the benefit of the loss of the Democratic bounce at the same time. In reality, this is a two point bounce, one of the President’s better recent polls, but let’s not overstate what this is.
Biden’s Convention Bounce Faded In A Week
Why are we freaking out about a convention bump when we just saw the convention bounce get tossed away easily? Like, we saw what happened here, and we saw that it just got annihilated in a moment. Hell, in 2016, Peak Trump post RNC had a lead in many polls, whereas his second best poll in months is a D+6. My oh my how people are desperate to make fetch happen.
The Online Polls Frequently Detach From Live Callers
Morning Consult and YouGov both have decent track records, but both are online pollsters who have some methods issues and can frequently show smaller leads than the high quality, live caller polls. The most recent set of those were quite good for Joe Biden, and until those come out and show a big trend for Trump, the panic isn’t really going to be here. We’ve seen trends in online polls before and generally they’re not backed up in either the state polls or live caller national polls, or they’ve reverted back to the Democrats in short order.
Undecideds Still Look Like Democrats
In both YouGov and Morning Consult, the pool of undecideds is full of Blacks and Hispanics, meaning there is little to no evidence that the GOP are going to get a good flow out of that poll of voters. In 2016, the pool of undecideds looked like Republicans, but people like myself didn’t want to believe it because that meant that Hillary’s shaky poll lead was more in danger than we realized. Here, Trump is either at 44% of the vote with a poll of voters where his whites are almost tapped out or at 41% and only “close” because nearly 20% of blacks are undecided, neither of which is good for him.
All in, the President got a pair of good polls today. But in terms of what they mean for the prospects for his reelection, they changed nothing. Gonna need a lot more than a convention bounce to meaningfully move the race.
Who would this message be for though?
BLM supporters matching peacefully?
Does he appreciate that black people just can't go home while innocent black people are shot and killed?
I think he's saying the riots and protestors are playing into Trump's narrative and helping him. he's flipped the script so dumb people think Biden is causing this. I wouldn't be shocked if Stephen Miller back channelled to help get these riots going. Most of these riots are started by the right. Trump is laying the blame on Biden who's not going on the attack.
Yeah there's definitely some back-channel stuff going on with these militia groups. I don't believe for one second what we saw last night in Portland was organic. Their campaign has made a calculated decision that more chaos in these protests will help Trump.