Official Biden vs. Trump 2020 General Election Thread (Biden WINS 306 Electoral College Votes)

Who wins?

  • Joe Biden, Vice President of the USA (2009-2017)

    Votes: 440 81.6%
  • Donald Trump, President of the USA (2017-present)

    Votes: 99 18.4%

  • Total voters
    539
  • Poll closed .

King Static X

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Kamala definitely energized the Democratic base. The Dems raised $70 million during this year's DNC compared to just $30 million in 2016.

Some of y'all expected a massive Biden polling bump? (like 5-10 percentage points) LOL, that wasn't happening no matter who he picked :mjlol:.
 

The ADD

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1. No that's not a good move because those Republicans are a minority which Biden is most-likely not going to win over...A good move is unifying your base which this ticket is ENTIRELY dependent on Trump hate to do...

2. A large number of progressives are not smart enough to know they're better off fighting with a centrist, see 2016 election

3. Biden polled better than Kamala did with black women during the primaries...She literally does nothing for him, and the lack of a convention bump proves that...
3 discounts turnout of the black vote. The excitement and carryover to turnover for black women and Indian women for Harris shouldn’t be discounted.
 

winb83

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1. No that's not a good move because those Republicans are a minority which Biden is most-likely not going to win over...A good move is unifying your base which this ticket is ENTIRELY dependent on Trump hate to do...

2. A large number of progressives are not smart enough to know they're better off fighting with a centrist, see 2016 election

3. Biden polled better than Kamala did with black women during the primaries...She literally does nothing for him, and the lack of a convention bump proves that...
Trump's base is not large enough to win him an election. If the republican party doesn't fall in line Trump loses. If progressives had that much influence Bernie would have won the primary. Clinton didn't lose because of progressives. She lost because she couldn't hold onto the percentage of the black vote that Obama had. Some of the states she lost that did her in were by 10s of thousands of votes.

Biden really doesn't have all the negative stuff Clinton had going on. Harris was a great pick for him. Between him being Obama's VP and Harris getting the centrist black woman he should be able to do far better than Clinton did with black voters.

If you want a bad VP pick see Clinton in 2016.
 

THE MACHINE

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Trump's base is not large enough to win him an election. If the republican party doesn't fall in line Trump loses. If progressives had that much influence Bernie would have won the primary. Clinton didn't lose because of progressives. She lost because she couldn't hold onto the percentage of the black vote that Obama had. Some of the states she lost that did her in were by 10s of thousands of votes.

Biden really doesn't have all the negative stuff Clinton had going on. Harris was a great pick for him. Between him being Obama's VP and Harris getting the centrist black woman he should be able to do far better than Clinton did with black voters.

If you want a bad VP pick see Clinton in 2016.

Clinton losing wasnt a black issue. Rural democrat women flipped over to Trump. People hate Hillary Clinton. Those white women saw a tough talking misogynist in a suit and fell in love.

This is Pennsylvania. Notice the shift from Dem. to Repub. These arent black people.
Here's how many people switched parties for the presidential election
As of the close of online voter registration Tuesday, 899,394 people registered or made a change in address, name or party since the online launch Aug. 27, 2015, Murren said. Here are some stats for the period since Jan, 1:


  • New voter applications: 574,377
  • Online users: 775,497 - 361,608 Democrats, 291,930 Republicans, 121,970 other.
  • New voters registering: 491,074
  • Changes in registration: 284,423

Here is the number of voters switching party since Jan. 1, with changes between Oct. 3-11 in parentheses:


  • To Democratic: 40,060 (2,040) from Republican; 68,981 (2,830) from other.
  • To Republican: 100,962 (3,355) from Democratic; 50,179 (1,726) from other.
  • Between 2008-15, 124,526 Republicans changed to Democratic, while 192,521 switched from Democratic to Republican.

This is from 1/1/2016-3/12/2016
Since the beginning of the year, nearing 50,000 registered Democrats in Pennsylvania have switched to the Republican Party and as many as 20,000 Democrats in Massachusetts have made the same move in their state.

Several recent reports have highlighted these party affiliation switches in key states, with some suggesting that Donald Trump is responsible for driving this exodus. The GOP presidential frontrunner often claims that his campaign has attracted tons of Democrats and independent voters, but are people leaving their parties in droves because they approve of his policy positions?

"It's unclear whether voters are switching parties to vote sincerely or to vote strategically, but we do see evidence that they're switching," said Costas Panagopoulos, a professor at Yale University this year, who also teaches at Fordham University, and studies voter behavior.



Heres some good news for PA though. And this was from Jan-Feb 2020, before Biden/Kamala became the ticket and before covid rocked the country

Election 2020: Republican voters switching parties in red parts of Pa.

but the numbers do show that 28,137 Republicans and third-party voters have switched to the Democratic party since January. In that same time frame, some 18,937 Democrats and third-party voters have switched to the Republican party...

...Hundreds of votes or a few thousand votes don't seem like much in a large state with 8.5 million voters. But in a battleground state like Pennsylvania, which Trump won by a narrow 44,000 votes in 2016, those numbers matter.
 

Formerly Black Trash

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Clinton losing wasnt a black issue. Rural democrat women flipped over to Trump. People hate Hillary Clinton. Those white women saw a tough talking misogynist in a suit and fell in love.

This is Pennsylvania. Notice the shift from Dem. to Repub. These arent black people.
Here's how many people switched parties for the presidential election


This is from 1/1/2016-3/12/2016




Heres some good news for PA though. And this was from Jan-Feb 2020, before Biden/Kamala became the ticket and before covid rocked the country

Election 2020: Republican voters switching parties in red parts of Pa.
I can't imagine Black ppl who regularly vote holding their nose because of Clinton
 

DrDealgood

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DrDealgood

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My hot take - Trump will even if the convention is complete shyt get a small but more measurable post-convention bounce than Biden and polls will tighten.

Some cacs so fukking sick at this point that all they have to do is hear Trump on a rant in primetime and their lil reptile brains fall in line.
 

winb83

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Clinton losing wasnt a black issue. Rural democrat women flipped over to Trump. People hate Hillary Clinton. Those white women saw a tough talking misogynist in a suit and fell in love.

This is Pennsylvania. Notice the shift from Dem. to Repub. These arent black people.
Here's how many people switched parties for the presidential election


This is from 1/1/2016-3/12/2016




Heres some good news for PA though. And this was from Jan-Feb 2020, before Biden/Kamala became the ticket and before covid rocked the country

Election 2020: Republican voters switching parties in red parts of Pa.
Black voter turnout fell like 7% from 2012 to 2016.
Black voter turnout fell in 2016 US election
The black voter turnout rate declined for the first time in 20 years in a presidential election, falling to 59.6% in 2016 after reaching a record-high 66.6% in 2012. The 7-percentage-point decline from the previous presidential election is the largest on record for blacks.
As a group blacks vote overwhelmingly for the dems. That drop was her kiss of death.
 

DrDealgood

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NPR Choice page - only 1 in 10 Bernie voters didn't vote for Clinton although others did write ins etc.

There is no way we lose any more than that this time and after 4 years of Trump Id say a whole lot less - and especially not Warren voters. The Tulsi and Yang stans may be a bit crazy in patches but they ain't gon matter in measurable numbers. Biden is peeling off the middle, and that's what he needs to do. If he's tied in OH, that's a good place to be especially since we aint the tipping point state this time by a long shot
 
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