I enjoy the Lincoln Project but there is no evidence that republican voters are shifting to Biden in a major way. In fact poll after poll shows him with 95% or more of the GOP vote. Biden's strength is moreso with independents, many of whom are ashamed or former republicans. Maybe the Lincoln Project helps on that front.
But consider that most of their ads are only online, meaning they are largely parroted and promoted amongst liberals. Thus becoming a circle jerk. They've put up a couple ads on TV but they're running many in DC, just so Trump can see them. Not sure how that helps democrats.
There's not much point in attack ad spending right now with the virus dominating all the headlines/news. I get what Biden is doing. Targeting some swing states is smart, and I'm sure the spending will ramp up in August when shyt really gets official.