Only three presidents have failed to win re-election since the 1933 - Ford, Carter, HW Bush. I'm not counting JFK because he didn't have the opportunity to run for re-election (though most historians believe he would have easily won), nor am I counting LBJ who left office instead of running again. So yea, of course Trump CAN win.
But the odds are stacked against him. The economy isn't going to magically return to normal, with at least two major states (Texas and California) currently paralyzed by the virus, and another (New York) moving at a snail's pace to avoid another resurgence. He has botched the virus response not once but twice. The resurgence we're seeing now is a direct result of his failed leadership, egging on red states to commit suicide in order to "fix" the economy. Well it's not gonna work.
I don't care who the VP is, or whose convention has the most people, or whatever other shyt. All I care about:
1. Who wins Michigan and Pennsylvania
2. Can Biden continue to run strong with elderly voters
3. Will black turnout return to near 2008/2012 levels
Both MI and PA have early voting/mail voting. They both have democrat governors. They both have democrat secretaries of state. I expect dems to win both, honestly...but I could be wrong. If I'm right, Biden will become president. That's the ballgame right there.