This comment section has no objective analysis lol. I was for Bernie but I’m not blind. Guys, You sound like some Dems in 2016 who said Trump had no chance to win by saying Trump is a sure thing.
I'm not saying he can't win. If his campaign adjusts and if the economy rebounds, this election becomes a toss up and Trump with the incumbency is a powerful and destructive thing to think about. He will use the government to get any advantage in the campaign. But luckily he is incompetent, sloppy, and lazy. Trump and the Republican National Committee is also sitting on a lot of cash on hand. They've raced a mind blowing amount of money earlier this year. Of course, money has diminishing returns. Hillary outspent Trump by almost a 2 to 1 margin and she lost! Bottomline is this. Trump is the incumbent POTUS. He should not be losing in national polls by 8-10 points on average with 4 months to go. His approval ratings his whole term has been about 42-43%. He's not a popular president. He didn't acknowledge COVID-19 as a real thing until March, his administration has been incompetent, they have done nothing for the average American, but they've done plenty standard GOP things like tax cuts for rich people and catering to big business every whim.
For a comparison, Obama was only leading Romney by about 2% in national polling all summer/fall with some showing Romney beating him. Obama by election day won by about 4% and won over 300 electoral college votes. Obama's approval ratings were right above 50% by election day. The fact that Biden is leading by this much as a challenger is unprecedented in modern presidential polling. Its not 2016. Hillary didn't have as a consistent lead that Biden holds. Biden is hitting 50% in national polling, a figure Hillary struggled to get to. She ended up with 48% of the popular vote. Nationally she would lead on average by 2-4 points with a couple of spikes in the summer. Trump lead some national polls. In 2020? He's trailed Biden in live national polling all year. The latest FOX NEWS POLL had it Biden at 50%, Trump at 38%. But what makes this different from 2016 is that Biden has a positive favorability rating (53% favorable, 44% unfavorable) and Trump is where he's normally been (43% favorable, 56% unfavorable). What were Hillary's exactly four years ago? 38% favorable and 56% unfavorable. Plus, Biden is well liked by voters over 65 years old.
And if you believe the polls are wrong, well, you're basically saying that Biden's average lead of 8% is fake and the polls have to swing by his lead plus the margin of error (MOE). Which is unheard of. Trump in the final weeks of 2016 was within the MOE in MI and PA in polling with the biggest variations in IA and WI. He made up the MOE in MI and PA and won the people who hated both candidates to win MI by under 11,000, win PA by about 44,000 and he completely overperformed polling in WI to win it by 22,000. He won IA by almost 10% when Obama carried it twice. This is not the same race and if the Trump campaign doesn't get its shid together, they're going to have a quick election night on November 3rd. And it seems they will not adjust because they still believe it is 2016.