I'd say yes. The US would've been in a recession but there wouldn't be millions without jobs and starving like now or 250K dead and he'd spin spin everything to his benefit.
Nope, not exactly. Trump lost Michigan a long time ago. The numbers we are seeing out of PA doesn't show that Trump would have been able to keep it. He barely won against Clinton and Joe is popular there. I know everyone wants to hate polls now but Joe always ran very well against Trump head to head no matter the situation and this is dating all the way to 2016 national polling. That leaves Wisconsin which has always been a toss up outside of Obama crushing.
Do the electoral math. Joe was never going to lose a state that Hilary won. He was always going to win MI/PA, just look at the data. Even the polling that made us go
out of PA, the late polling, still showed on the district level that Joe was making very significant inroads. It would all come down to WI which was trending blue in the '18 midterms.
If we are going to assess "what ifs" then we need to actually look at the map.