Official Biden vs. Trump 2020 General Election Thread (Biden WINS 306 Electoral College Votes)

Who wins?

  • Joe Biden, Vice President of the USA (2009-2017)

    Votes: 440 81.6%
  • Donald Trump, President of the USA (2017-present)

    Votes: 99 18.4%

  • Total voters
    539
  • Poll closed .

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im saying there are several different polling methods.
Do you know them well enough to know why you dont like each?

My original post to you was saying we still dont know the results...
...those polls could still be 100% right.

There are things that cant be quantified hence why I said the ghost in the numbers.

So let's take Nate Sliver's methodology of aggregating numbers. Aggregate polls mean that is supposed to make them more robust, but if everyone has flawed methodology your not aggregating robustness your make the aggregation more concentrated.

Second is the weighting of polls in the aggregate system. The more polls that are correlated together that move like to each other again it's not robust it's more concentrated.

Third fat tails. Rare events. Say we get Talfgar polls that look janky with their numbers, but maybe their methodology is correct. So in the aggregate polls, they would be assigned less weight because it seems their numbers are off. Yet it's a fat tail poll a rare event it should be assigned a greater weighting. The problem is how do you decide what weight to assign it. Obscure fat tail events run this planet not the other way around. Ie 9/11

Four maybe the Talfgar group methodology is on but the numbers are off. They look for things that are hard to quantify and try to assume a bias in their polls. Say something out of blue you can't account for like rally effects or can't account for people not wanting people to know who they vote for so they lie. Or something like a trust issue with the people that are doing the actual polls if you believe the whole system is rigged. "Shy voters!" This was outright dismissed yet I have had that same conflicting dilemma when I was younger. I leaned right and would lie not to make people know my political leanings. Is that baked into the polls?

Back to my what, I said there are ghosts in the numbers! But like I said originally I was told I have no idea what I talking about and polling is correct science. :troll:
 
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Dameon Farrow

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At this point:

Bear: biden wins WI/MI/NV

Base: Biden’s wins those 3 + GA

bull: biden wins the rest of the swing states minus NC.

still I gigantic loss for dems.... was suppose to be a blowout, now trump can dispute and who the fukk knows where we will be in a few weeks. On top of that no control of the senate.
was never gonna be a blowout.....and the only people saying it were people online. The lead only need be decent. It would take a whack job judge to rule against votes right in their face which is ehy I'm glad the attempts to suppress in Texas failed. Thst state was never going blue. But suppression by and large failed.
 

cobra

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Well yeah hes being unlawfully usurped, no way you win Ohio and Florida and lose an election that has literally never happened before in history, and he was leading in the three states that would decide the election and they just stop counting lol yea we gonna have a lot of buffoonery and Russia and China will make their move off the corruption and incompetence of our government and division and gullibility of our citizens
:russell:
 

N.J.stan

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Peace of mind came from not paying attention to this threat tonight, drinking plenty of beers, and knowing joey b gonna pull it out just for my bet :mjlit:
 

DerrtySouthpaw

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Well yeah hes being unlawfully usurped, no way you win Ohio and Florida and lose an election that has literally never happened before in history, and he was leading in the three states that would decide the election and they just stop counting lol yea we gonna have a lot of buffoonery and Russia and China will make their move off the corruption and incompetence of our government and division and gullibility of our citizens
That’s the stupidest logic ever. :mjlol:
 

Starski

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was never gonna be a blowout.....and the only people saying it were people online. The lead only need be decent. It would take a whack job judge to rule against votes right in their face which is ehy I'm glad the attempts to suppress in Texas failed. Thst state was never going blue. But suppression by and large failed.


Nah, I believe there was common belief that this was going to be a decisive win. Not 350+ EV’s but “it’s 10:00pm and biden has got this”.

Dems were not expecting scrounge for votes in WI at 4:00AM to get a ~10k vote lead.

I have personally said this multiple times but the perception of contesting the vote in trumps voters eyes >>>>> the legality of it.
 

Anerdyblackguy

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Pathway to victory for Trump: GA, PA, Michigan
Pathway to victory for Biden: NV, Wisconsin, Michigan/or PA

This explains why Trump had 21 rallies in 3 days for Michigan, PA and GA
 

ZoeGod

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Can't believe the wort case scenario is happening. A contested election that will be heavily litigated. We are on the cusp of a major constitutional crisis. 2020 aint letting up :why: No matter who wins there will social unrest because its so damn close. A Biden blowout was supposed to dead this shyt. If this ends up in the Supreme Court :francis:
 

DerrtySouthpaw

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Because the only thing that matters is the electoral college :martin: getting one or both at the same time doesn’t mean trump got cheated. He hasn’t voted in person either he gets no right to bytch about this.


Republicans about to lose 7-8 elections by popular vote. You’re the vocal minority now :umad:
 
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