The polls had Martha McSally beating Kyrsten Sinema in 2018. Sinema ended up winning.I don't factor AZ in on my maps much. It'd be nice for Joe to take it but I do think it's a toss up. FWIW, 538 still has Biden slightly favored at 66/100 for Arizona.
Biden is in a better position than Sinema. Biden will win AZ. Also, it been mostly trash polls showing Trump with a lead in AZ.