Official Biden vs. Trump 2020 General Election Thread (Biden WINS 306 Electoral College Votes)

[MoneyTron]

And that’s what this is actually about. Politics rarely moves wildly state to state – there’s an order and rhythm to state movements. Texas is not likely to be the tipping point, and is much more likely to be a cherry on top of a Democratic landslide if they win it. But that is the point exactly. The fact that I am writing about Texas at all means it is a landslide. If Texas is a coinflip for the GOP – a state that voted 11 points right of the nation in 2016, for fukk’s sake – then they’ve lost a whole hell of a lot before Texas, and that means Joe Biden is the President of the United States. I am not actually happy about the fact that the polls consistently point in one direction – I am a political junkie and boring elections that don’t have large amounts of uncertainty lose stakes. My mind is already drifting from 2020 because nothing is changing – and going to Australian byelections instead. But there is no doubt about it – Joe Biden’s going to be President unless Donald Trump gets his shyt together, and this Texas poll is a stake in the heart of his re-election chances.

This dude bold as shyt. Let’s just hope it holds up.

 

[F K]

Texas Poll Shows Dems Winning
by Evan Scrimshaw | Apr 30, 2020 | Uncategorized | 0 comments

On Saturday, I wrote on these pages that Texas Is Going Blue, based on a Texas Tribune/YouGov poll of the state which had some extremely wonky crosstabs that suggested Democrats were in good shape. Today, we got confirmation of this with a PPP poll of the state showing Biden ahead by 1. Now, it’s PPP, so caveats apply, but there’s reason to believe this poll is more reliable than the last one. Let’s start with the way the poll was broken out – having a big Trump lead with white voters makes a lot more sense for Texas than the close race YouGov showed. There’s a 4% swing towards the Democrats with white voters in the state since 2016, which makes a lot more sense than the 17% swing the previous poll had. The black vote is a lot more in line with what you should expect – instead of a big swing to Trump like YouGov, it shows Biden outrunning Hillary Clinton by 5%, which makes complete sense as well.

Now, 5% overperformances with black and white voters isn’t enough to flip Texas’ 9% margin – but they are if you’re outperforming Hillary Clinton by 20% with Hispanics. From a 27% win with those voters in 2016, Biden is looking at a 47% win now – and that sort of strength is what it will take to win Texas. Put another way, Texas Hispanics voted 11% to the right of the nation as a whole in 2016, and now they’re not doing so. That strength for Biden with Hispanics is not reflected in every poll, but this isn’t the first poll showing heightened Hispanic support for Biden recently – a Monday Siena College poll of New York showed Biden outperforming Clinton with Hispanics by 18% up there. If these patterns repeat, the GOP go from mildly troubled in Texas to up shyt’s creek without a paddle.

And that’s what this is actually about. Politics rarely moves wildly state to state – there’s an order and rhythm to state movements. Texas is not likely to be the tipping point, and is much more likely to be a cherry on top of a Democratic landslide if they win it. But that is the point exactly. The fact that I am writing about Texas at all means it is a landslide. If Texas is a coinflip for the GOP – a state that voted 11 points right of the nation in 2016, for fukk’s sake – then they’ve lost a whole hell of a lot before Texas, and that means Joe Biden is the President of the United States. I am not actually happy about the fact that the polls consistently point in one direction – I am a political junkie and boring elections that don’t have large amounts of uncertainty lose stakes. My mind is already drifting from 2020 because nothing is changing – and going to Australian byelections instead. But there is no doubt about it – Joe Biden’s going to be President unless Donald Trump gets his shyt together, and this Texas poll is a stake in the heart of his re-election chances.

I bet you could get good odds for texas going blue on those politics betting sites. Might be worth a gamble, as long as you spend money you can afford to lose.

 

[FAH1223]

Bernie and Liz got jokes

 

[Ya' Cousin Cleon]

and just last year Bernie stans was acting like they wasn't friends with one another

Bernie and Liz got jokes

 

[F K]

and just last year Bernie stans was acting like they wasn't friends with one another

Last year more like 2 months ago. This quarantine has warped all of our sense of time

 

[acri1]

Last year more like 2 months ago. This quarantine has warped all of our sense of time

I remember way back in the day when people had nothing better to worry about than a chicken sandwich seems like it's been two years

 

[Robbie3000]

and just last year Bernie stans was acting like they wasn't friends with one another

I don't recall that at all. Most people were mad she stabbed her friend in the back.

 

[ExodusNirvana]

Please stop counting your chickens before they've hatched

It's May

 

[MoneyTron]

Please stop counting your chickens before they've hatched

It's May

What does it matter? We’re on the internet.

We’ll be “counting chickens” for the next 6 months.

If we say Biden doesn’t have a chance, does that make him more likely to win? If we say he wins now, does that mean Trump is taking the W?

Nah.

 

[acri1]

What does it matter? We’re on the internet.

We’ll be “counting chickens” for the next 6 months.

If we say Biden doesn’t have a chance, does that make him more likely to win? If we say he wins now, does that mean Trump is taking the W?

Nah.

If people think they already know how the election will go they're less likely to vote. Especially if they think it'll go their way.

Personally I think it's best if everyone is as worried and pessimistic about the election as possible so they don't get complacent and make excuses to stay home.

 

[88m3]

Please stop counting your chickens before they've hatched

It's May

Probably going to get some jerk chicken today

 

[the cac mamba]

 

[MoneyTron]

If people think they already know how the election will go they're less likely to vote. Especially if they think it'll go their way.

Personally I think it's best if everyone is as worried and pessimistic about the election as possible so they don't get complacent and make excuses to stay home.

OK, but that's for the general public. They don't care about polls right now. We all know the stakes on here.

 

[MoneyTron]

I expect these polls to start tightening up over the summer but for an incumbent these numbers are horrific.

 

[the cac mamba]

I expect these polls to start tightening up over the summer but for an incumbent these numbers are horrific.

ive said it before, but i'm scared that trump is gonna ride the wave of optimism and relief when the country starts opening up again

i mean if the timing is right before the election when people can start going out to bars and vacations and shyt, i think he'll win. but other than that, he looks finished by any measure. these polls are just embarrassing