Official Bernie Sanders HQ: Not Me, Us!
- Thread starter Berniewood Hogan
- Start date
Buttigieg would be a huge struggle. I think Warren would have been favored over Trump a month ago but her campaign has burned too many bridges and now it's 50-50 at best and probably worse. You can make a strong case for Biden based on polls and policies, my case against him is mostly his past campaign performances and baggage along with general flubbery. Don't even know how to evaluate Bloomberg but he has the biggest negatives and hard to imagine him getting any traction at all.
Bernie is the most electable candidate and it's not even close. Literally every argument against him is based on traditional narratives of "but he's too old!" or "but socialism!" and has absolutely zero to do with the actual candidate himself, his actual operation, or the situation on the ground right now.
The #1 way I see Bernie losing at this point is only if the entire Democratic operation sabotages itself, or massive voting interference from republicans and outsiders.
Trump's rising approval ratings is a big cause for concern.
He's at 45% in the RCP Average which... for an incumbent President still isn't good. But its a tick higher than it was in October before impeachment.
The only good thing is, if Trump is campaigning like a normal GOP President and he has a lot of these GOP operatives and consultants running around him, he'd be easier to beat since he'll be pushed into Republican orthodoxy. Like cutting Social Security. Which he's now openly said he'd look at doing after the election.
OfTheCross
Veteran
it all boils down to his VP choice. If it's someone moderate and capable in the eyes of the masses he'll win easily.
If he picks someone like Yang, he'll win and create a new wave of young, smart and active progressives
OfTheCross
Veteran
don't get too shook.
He's still never been above 50% approval and the reason he's up to 49% is in-part because Republicans are circling the wagons.
Trump Job Approval at Personal Best 49%
Trump's approval rating has risen because of higher ratings among both Republicans and independents. His 94% approval rating among Republicans is up six percentage points from early January and is three points higher than his previous best among his fellow partisans. The 42% approval rating among independents is up five points, and ties three other polls as his best among that group. Democratic approval is 7%, down slightly from 10%.
Trump's approval rating has risen because of higher ratings among both Republicans and independents. His 94% approval rating among Republicans is up six percentage points from early January and is three points higher than his previous best among his fellow partisans. The 42% approval rating among independents is up five points, and ties three other polls as his best among that group. Democratic approval is 7%, down slightly from 10%.
His approval in Gallup was 39%... 4 months ago breh
And Gallup hasn't been that kind to him
OfTheCross
Veteran
Looked a little deeper.
His approval with R's went from 87 to 94
His approval with I's went from 34 to 42
His approval with D's went from 5 to 7
since October
Trump Approval Holds Steady in Face of Impeachment Probe
This election is going to be about turnout and independents.
We've still got the advantage in Independents, need to make sure people are inspired to turnout.
damn they still aint release the full iowa results? 
but yeah i agree with what everyone is saying about bernie being the most electable at this point. Pete would get washed. The fact like they are acting like he won, even though he lost the pop vote and they're tied in delegates is amazing.
but yeah i agree with what everyone is saying about bernie being the most electable at this point. Pete would get washed. The fact like they are acting like he won, even though he lost the pop vote and they're tied in delegates is amazing.
Bernie townhall in NH before he goes back to DC for the Impeachment vote
@Skyfall
@jayshiggs
@storyteller
what do you think... what can he do to widen his base and get some of these moderates?
afterlife2009
Superstar
Somewhat agree and disagree with Zaid. Bernie's team needs to show some viability with over 45 voters. He might be able to get a delegate lead with under 45 voters in a split field but his weakness with older voters is a big problem in the general election. Suburban districts might be a problem as well.
The stump speech might need some adjustments. Saying the exact speech for five years is a gift and curse. I think he needs to change it up to really win over this reality TV obsessed nation. Drop the free college messaging since he already has under 30 on lock, he needs to highlight pragmatic stuff without selling out. Turn yourself into the veterans candidate, i don't care make it a gimmick.
Where I disagree is we only saw Iowa so far. I need to see New Hampshire and California numbers before I start really worrying about turnout. I'm always going to continue to point out that the Democratic primary electorate is full of people very distant from Bernie's politics as any Republican voter so some of this isn't on him but there's a path through this.
Beating Trump is going to require an unconventional strategy. Trump is a master at creating alternate realities and he did what the left can only dream about, he succeeded in a hostile media environment and broke them. It's mind-blowing how effective he is if you look at it objectively, we're so bamboozled by his madness that we still underestimate him. I think Bernie or whoever the nominee is needs to lean into the Epstein-Trump stuff. I'm not kidding.
The stump speech might need some adjustments. Saying the exact speech for five years is a gift and curse. I think he needs to change it up to really win over this reality TV obsessed nation. Drop the free college messaging since he already has under 30 on lock, he needs to highlight pragmatic stuff without selling out. Turn yourself into the veterans candidate, i don't care make it a gimmick.
Where I disagree is we only saw Iowa so far. I need to see New Hampshire and California numbers before I start really worrying about turnout. I'm always going to continue to point out that the Democratic primary electorate is full of people very distant from Bernie's politics as any Republican voter so some of this isn't on him but there's a path through this.
Beating Trump is going to require an unconventional strategy. Trump is a master at creating alternate realities and he did what the left can only dream about, he succeeded in a hostile media environment and broke them. It's mind-blowing how effective he is if you look at it objectively, we're so bamboozled by his madness that we still underestimate him. I think Bernie or whoever the nominee is needs to lean into the Epstein-Trump stuff. I'm not kidding.
PoorAndDangerous
Superstar
I think some of his policies appeal to moderates, strong unions, Medicare for all are stuff moderates want. He just loses them on certain other things. Bernie is a populist he can easily appeal to moderate voters. I think trump loses a lot of moderates with how insane he is but maybe I’m reading things wrong