My G, two things have happened that solidified the race IMO. 1) AOC, Tlaib and Omar endorsing Bernie has energized the base and the youth 2) with Bloomberg entering the race I think it is official, the wealthy are scared shytless and are flailing for last ditch efforts. The populist movement is inevitable. Bernie will either power through or be cheated so blatantly it will end the Centrists as trust worthy actors for good. Leaving Progressives to take over. If Bernie and progressives continue applying pressure @ the current clip they can't be stopped. Just my assessment, I could be wrong.
I agree. The heart attack put a lot of things into perspective about Bernie and the chance we have.
Those are the only two scenarios I see happening you mentioned. Bernie's Iowa team is going to have a trained caucus volunteer in every precinct so no coin toss fukkery is going to happen. They are training Nevada volunteers as well.
An amateur election analyst I keep up with said that it is very rare in the history of primaries that three candidates are viable after New Hampshire. Once we get to South Carolina, there will be one person with a safe lead in delegates.
This could change because Biden is super strong in the south and we might see a three way race for months but primary history tells us a different story. We need Biden to finish an embarrassing fourth place or a distant third in Iowa so it can crack his electability argument.