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SpoilersThe Wolverine cinematic rights don't belong to Marvel so that's not their call.
Black Panther could happen, but if they dropped the ball on any aspect of that movie, from the casting to the marketing, it would be a public relations nightmare.
Having said that, Captain America's shield gets broken in "The Avengers 2", and Black Panter's nation of Wakanda is basically the sole source of vibranium (the metal his shield is made from) in the Marvel universe.
Fred.