that.”
Tier 1 votes: 29 | Tier 2 votes: 26
This year marks the first time most voters placed Wilson in the top tier.
That might seem surprising given Wilson’s stats and championship pedigree, but Seattle has won so many games over the years with an elite defense and run-oriented offense that Wilson, for all his excellence, hasn’t had to win from the pocket as a passer consistently. That is typically how quarterbacks must win if their defense and/or ground game are lacking, and it’s usually a big part of earning a place in the top tier.
“What makes him unique is, with the game on the line, he can beat you, extend plays and do that,” a defensive coach with NFC West ties said. “But throughout the whole course of the game, they gotta keep the score down and they gotta run the ball.”
Seattle uses heavy doses of the ground game to reduce turnovers while emphasizing the explosive pass play, which Wilson has helped to maximize as one of the game’s great deep passers, whether or not he’s throwing on schedule.
“I remember seeing Wilson coming out of college and thinking, ‘Man, this guy is not going to be able to drop back from under center,’” an offensive coach said. “I was a young coach not realizing, ‘Hey, dumbass, you get to construct your offense around your players’ strengths.’”
The Seahawks have done that.
“I just think he keeps growing as a passer,” a veteran coach said. “He is playing with his hands tied a little bit, but I think he is going to find a way to win. He did that against us. He just kept making throws. He was the difference in the game, really.”
Wilson has a 4-14 record over the past three seasons when the opponent exceeded 24 points. Jared Goff (8-9), Matt Ryan (10-12), Brady (7-9), Brees (9-13), Rodgers (7-14) and Luck (5-11) have the highest winning percentages in those games over that span (minimum 15 games). Wilson did win a 38-31 shootout against Mahomes and the Chiefs last season.
“You give him a run game and a good defense, they have a great chance to win the Super Bowl, but he can win with whatever he’s got,” a former GM said. “I could see putting him as a 2, but to say he needs a run game is not fair. He does lift that bunch up where they are always in the hunt no matter what they do.”
Tier 2
A Tier 2 quarterback can carry his team sometimes but not as consistently. He can handle pure passing situations in doses and/or possesses other dimensions that are special enough to elevate him above Tier 3. He has a hole or two in his game.
Tier 1 votes: 13 | Tier 2 votes: 39 | Tier 3 votes: 3
Ryan got 13 top-tier votes, more than double the total for the rest of the second tier combined, but with the Falcons missing the playoffs four times in the past six years, most voters had a hard time pushing Ryan into the top tier. Some feel as though he’s prone to the costly turnover.
“Last year, their running game suffered when Devonta Freeman got hurt and their defense struggled, and he did not stand out, did not push them to another level,” a personnel director said. “That is why I put an asterisk next to him.”
Despite these perceptions, Ryan in 2018 posted the second-best totals of his career for completion percentage, touchdown passes, touchdown pass rate, yards per attempt, passer rating and adjusted net yards per attempt. He tied a career best for fewest interceptions in a season and set a career mark for lowest interception rate.
“I think Matt can carry the team and he is better than he maybe gets credit for,” a former GM said. “If you had to go in and didn’t have any run game and just had to throw it, you could win with Matt. He has evolved as a leader. He improved his game in terms of moving around, running when he had to. So, I think Matt is a 1.”
An offensive coordinator thought there was a case for Ryan as a 1, but he thought spotty performance in big games made the case less convincing.
“He was on his way to being a major one if Kyle Shanahan had stayed (as offensive coordinator),” a GM said. “The coordinator changes he has gone through have led to some inconsistencies. He has a chance now with Dirk Koetter. I’m not as scared of Ryan in pure pass, but when he gets going, he can carry a team.”
Tier 1 votes: 5 | Tier 2 votes: 34 | Tier 3 votes: 16
A good chunk of voters think Wentz would be a 1 if knee and back injuries hadn’t forced his career to take a detour.
“He’s a 1,” an offensive coordinator said. “We played them; he made four to five throws I really did not think he could make. He has great confidence, great stature. Big arm. Competitive. He gets hit more than he should, but he played young and should grow out of that.”
Some dropped Wentz into the third tier this offseason simply because they weren’t sure he would recapture the form he showed before the knee injury.
“We have played him, and our head coach thinks the world of him, and I think he is a great player and a strong athlete,” a defensive coordinator said. “I just don’t know his ability to read it and have touch passes. He can throw hard balls in there, and he has a super-strong arm. I do not yet know if he has the touch and the feel to ascend.”
A GM said he would “give Wentz a 2 and hope” for better health. A QB coach noted that Wentz had been hurt at every level of football. A defensive coordinator said he thought the post-injury Wentz did not display the escapability that had differentiated him before.
“He is damn good and he can run, but he does not play with a calm to him yet,” a coach who studied the Eagles this offseason said. “He overreacts to things and is not smooth and poised like a guy who has done it a long time. He will get there.”
A personnel director used the term “Andrew Luck-ish” to describe a healthy Wentz.
An offensive coordinator noted that Wentz has benefited from a strong supporting cast. Quite a few voters thought Wentz could carry a team, but they didn’t think he had done it yet.
“Wentz just got paid, so if all of a sudden they are 7-9, it is going to be, wait a minute,” an evaluator said. “I hope this is not an RGIII situation, but because of the injuries, I think he needs to reconfigure how he plays.”
Tier 1 votes: 1 | Tier 2 votes: 41 | Tier 3 votes: 13
“The top (QBs) usually make (other) guys better, and you just do not see that happening with him.”
Stafford’s average tier slipped from 1.7 last summer to 2.2 this time, as only one voter placed him in the top tier, down from 15 a year ago. Voters expressed disappointment that Stafford’s top-tier talent hasn’t translated to greater team success.
“He can do everything you want, but you are always waiting for everyone around him to get better, and usually what happens with the top guys, they make those guys better, and you just do not see that happening with him,” a defensive coordinator said. “I’m not saying it’s his fault. I do not know whose fault it is. But the good quarterbacks make the team better.”
The lone top-tier vote for Stafford came from a coach who was an easy grader overall. This coach blamed perpetually bad offensive line play for Stafford’s failure to elevate the Lions.
“I still think he’s a 2,” a GM said. “He has 1 talent, but 2 production. He hasn’t won as much as they had hoped, but I think they haven’t helped him a lot, either. Last year, they traded his best receiver. I just think he’s talented, I think he’s a competitor. He scares us.”
The Lions seem focused on developing a rushing attack. Could that help Stafford the way a dominant running game helped John Elway late in his career? Stafford is not Elway, but both were No. 1 overall picks known for their unusually gifted arms.
“If they get people in single-high (safety) against Matt all the time, he should flourish,” one voter said. “He can beat man coverage. He can make every throw, and guys (on defense) do not have time to get there because he can really throw it.”
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