Welcome to my sixth annual Quarterback Tiers survey. As “QB Tiers” makes its debut on
The Athletic after five years at ESPN, a short primer is in order.
Fifty-five NFL coaches and executives contributed to the survey this year by placing all veteran starting quarterbacks into one of five tiers and then offering insights into their thinking.
Tier 1 is reserved for the best, while Tier 5 is so poor that no starters received a majority of votes in that tier this year.
Once ballots were in, I averaged the results to create a ranking. The Green Bay Packers’ Aaron Rodgers commanded 53 Tier 1 votes and two Tier 2 votes, creating a 1.04 average that narrowly landed him atop the rankings despite a tumultuous 2018 season, generating a rich, lively discussion among voters. By proceeding past this introduction, you’ll enjoy a front-row seat for some of the most candid discussions among those voters — not just for Rodgers, but for all quarterbacks.
The rankings are not gospel. No single voter agrees with the final results exactly. There are quarterbacks I’d move higher or lower if filling out my own ballot. This is a composite look at what the league thinks of its quarterbacks and why.
I’ve defined each tier based on input collected over the years during hundreds of discussions with coaches and evaluators. Tier definitions are spelled out below, atop each section. Generally speaking, the better the tier, the less help the quarterback needs from his defense and running game to succeed. Every quarterback resides within the tier for which he received the most votes.
Only non-rookie starters were included, on the thinking that mixing rookies with veterans would create an apples-to-oranges dynamic.
The Miami Dolphins have two quarterbacks in this survey. Thirty teams are represented once. The Arizona Cardinals, with rookie Kyler Murray identified as the clear starter, are the only team not represented.
Away we go …
Tier 1
A Tier 1 quarterback can carry his team each week. The team wins because of him. He expertly handles pure passing situations.
Tier 1 votes: 53 | Tier 2 votes: 2
Rodgers has at least tied for the top spot six times in six years of QB Tiers balloting, but some voters were less enthusiastic this time around. Two even placed Rodgers in the second tier, the first time Rodgers received a second-tier vote since 2014, when he was coming off an injury.
“It was always Ted Thompson or Mike McCarthy’s fault, and when it gets to be two people’s fault, then you wonder,” a GM who nonetheless placed Rodgers in the top tier said. “You see the body language and then you realize the heroics come when there is nothing to lose.”
Those most critical of Rodgers raised concerns about him becoming less coachable, going for big plays instead of running the offense, failing to get Green Bay into the playoffs and losing some dynamism through cumulative injuries.
“Guys like Rodgers get canonized and put on a pedestal so high that it’s hard for the coach to keep up,” said a coach who placed Rodgers in the top tier. “Someone has to tell him, ‘Listen, if you do that again, I’m going to kick you right in the balls.”
A different coach had a different message for Rodgers: “Please, come to my team!”
The coach who thought legendary QBs sometimes need a figurative kick below the belt thought Brett Favre missed that type of hard coaching later in his career. Another veteran coach saw similarities among Rodgers, Dan Marino and Tony Romo later in their careers, suggesting all three became tougher to coach.
“Rodgers is a stud,” a veteran defensive coordinator pushed back. “That’s a bytch right there. It is never dead with Rodgers. He has eyes in the back of his head. Special.”
Another voter explained that “since we do not know what plays are called and we do not know what his audible ability is from the outside, I’m looking at this as who do you want on your team and who is hardest to defend by your definitions? Rodgers comes out tops on both.”
Another Rodgers defender said he charted all the catchable passes Rodgers delivered that were not caught through the bulk of last season. His conclusion: Rodgers’ incomplete passes were better than a lot of starters’ highlights.
“Debating whether Rodgers is in the top tier is the equivalent of asking whether LeBron James is the best basketball player,” a defensive backs coach said, “because he is just so gifted with some of his abilities, and there is no way you can say a Matt Ryan is better even though there could be some years statistically where a case can be made.”
The Packers obviously could have done more to support Rodgers. Some voters also thought Green Bay would benefit from offensive scheme changes.
“Rodgers is the only one that can do everything with the least talent,” a different defensive coordinator said. “Brady makes Tier 1 decisions but cannot carry the team in the same way. New England has the system and the running game. Put all the other quarterbacks on that (Packers) team and who do you think would succeed? Not many.”
Tier 1 votes: 52 | Tier 2 votes: 3
Go ahead, take out the microscope and look for evidence Brady is declining as his age-42 season approaches.
“You can try to find something,” an exec said. “Brady is like Steph Curry. The first quarter might look like crap, but you’d better have a big lead because when it comes to nut-cutting time, he is going to make it happen.”
Some microscope wielders suggested Brady had a harder time throwing as consistently well on passes outside the numbers.
“That is what happens when you get so high up there — people pick for little holes,” a defensive coordinator said. “At the end of the day, would you like that guy running your team? Hell, yeah! You’d take him 16 out of 16 weeks.”
Better make that 19 out of 19 weeks, through the Super Bowl, in Brady’s case.
“They say the scheme protects him, but that is by game plan,” a defensive coach with AFC East experience said. “There are still heavy-pass game plans and plans that emphasize empty. The way they are set up, the QB has to function with a certain amount of skills. He accurately passes to all the eligibles from far hash to outside the numbers.”
Two pro personnel directors and a QB coach placed Brady in the second tier. A defensive coordinator dabbled with the idea. One of the personnel directors had only Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes in his top tier, with Andrew Luck, Ben Roethlisberger, Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, Russell Wilson and Brady in the second tier. Those QBs made the top-tier cut on most ballots, but if Rodgers and Mahomes were the only guys in the top tier, well, they’re the ones with the most elite talent.
“Brady is a 1, and I don’t know how you could argue it,” an offensive coordinator said. “People can be critical about his movement or whatever, but just look at the criteria: can carry his team each week, the team wins because of him, he handles pure pass situations and has no holes. Brady plays his best in the most critical situations. Anyone who doesn’t put him as a 1 is evaluating the wrong things.”
One last question: When might Brady decline?
“I don’t see a drop-off without a catastrophic injury or, like the great pitchers, if he loses his legs,” a defensive coach said. “I believe he is increasing his fitness. And then he has the best footwork, the best execution of the screen pass, and if you watch the cutups of his fakes, it is like a f—ing magic act. Beyond that, I’m not sure the game has seen a competitor that exceeds him.”
him.”
Tier 1 votes: 51 | Tier 2 votes: 4
Brees commanded top-tier votes at a higher rate this year than last, but quite a few voters thought he belonged at the bottom of Tier 1. There was greater enthusiasm for Mahomes than for Brees among voters who placed both in the top tier, but Brees’ much longer track record gave him the benefit of the doubt with some.
“I like to think of the ones being so rare over the years — Peyton, Brady, Rodgers,” an offensive coordinator said. “Then you take a breath and you say it’s Brees, whoever else. Look, I’m president of the Drew Brees fan club, but last year, when the run game dried up a little, I felt he was not carrying them like he was before.”
Much of the praise for Brees comes with subtle qualifiers.
“Drew can carry his team in those pure passing situations,” a head coach said. “He is limited in certain throws he has to make on rhythm now, but I think you still have to give him a 1.”
A defensive coordinator called Brees a 1 for knowing what to do but a 2 from a physical standpoint.
“The system bails him out with the run game, the quick passing game and the play-action,” said this coordinator, who placed only Rodgers and Brady in his top tier. “I don’t think he can carry a team (without that). His quick decision-making makes him.”
The general feeling was that the case for Brees as a 1 was stronger than the case for Brees as a 2.
“I think Drew is a first-half-of-the-season 1, second-half-of-the-season 2,” an offensive coordinator said. “Watch how they play now. If they play a bad defense, they might throw for 500 yards (as it was against Cincinnati last season). They play a good defense, they are going to be conservative and try to win a close game, like against Baltimore last year.”
The Saints have become much better on defense and special teams over the past couple of seasons. They have a strong ground game. Brees will surely accept that support after spending several years propping up a team that was historically bad on defense in particular.
“They’ve got a lot around him, but he makes it all go,” a GM said. “When you say, ‘As a passer, can carry the team and do all that,’ he still does that.”