Part seven
said.
Tier 2 votes: 7 | Tier 3 votes: 38 | Tier 4 votes: 10
Manning keeps slipping in these rankings even though voters acknowledge the Giants’ offensive line has put him in a difficult position.
“I have a feeling Eli is going to do better than what people think,” a head coach said. “We can give him a 3 till he proves it, but I think he is more of a 2. Getting rid of that receiver (Odell Beckham Jr.) is a big thing. I think that guy was a (problem), but that is my own feeling.”
A defensive coordinator thought the Giants’ drafting of Daniel Jones in the first round could regenerate Manning mentally, making the team a candidate to surprise in 2019.
“I do agree he played OK at the end of the season, but I think he is a short-term 3,” a personnel director said. “Athletically, he is so limited at this point, but the cerebral part of it is there and there is enough arm there, and he will get it out quick.”
A short-term 3 is basically a 4 — a veteran who ideally would not start all 16 games. Ten voters put Manning in that fourth tier.
“Eli has ‘2’ moments, but if you are playing against a good pass rush and a good defense, he is greatly affected,” an offensive coordinator said.
Manning did complete 25 of 29 passes for 297 yards and two touchdowns against Houston early last season, but when I asked a coach to look at that game, he said the Giants were basically running under routes and running away from the Texans’ defensive leverage — a good plan but not necessarily great quarterbacking.
“If the pocket is clean and he can stand there and see the field, that is one thing,” this coach said. “When it is not, it’s tough. The top-tier guys can make it happen regardless.”
Tier 2 votes: 6 | Tier 3 votes: 39 | Tier 4 votes: 10
While some voters expressed serious concerns about Trubisky’s outlook, reviews were generally more favorable than his No. 25 ranking might indicate.
“He has a really good arm, he can make the great throw, he is a good deep-ball thrower, he is not afraid to stand in the pocket, he’s not afraid of the noise of getting hit, which is a good sign,” an offensive coordinator said. “I just don’t think he really knows what’s going on yet.”
Much is made of Trubisky’s relative inexperience. He attempted 572 passes during his college career. That’s a small number, but it’s more than 2019 No. 1 overall pick Kyler Murray attempted (519). Trubisky now has 26 NFL starts. His 15-11 record in those games traces largely to Chicago allowing 17.4 points per game in those 26 outings, the lowest over the past two seasons for any quarterback with at least 10 starts during that time.
“He’s a 3, and I like what I see, but he is more in the Andy Dalton category to me,” a former GM said. “When you get to the playoffs and things get tough, I’m not sure. When he has to win the game for you, I’m not sure. You need the good run game, you need the receivers, you need the really good coach, you need the good defense.”
Six voters placed Trubisky in the second tier, while others wondered whether he had the accuracy and anticipation to ascend.
“Even though they have Khalil (Mack) and some high-juice guys, it is his team,” an offensive coordinator said of Trubisky. “That is how it appears from the outside, and talking to people there, he is an awesome guy. His production is not great, but I think he has the ability. I think he is going to get better. He has what you need in terms of leadership at that position.”
Tier 2 votes: 2 | Tier 3 votes: 44 | Tier 4 votes: 9
Mariota enters his fifth-year option season facing two questions: Is he good enough to be a long-term starter? And can he get/stay healthy enough to play consistently? There’s more optimism regarding Mariota’s ability than his availability.
“I think they are looking for a guy next year,” a GM said. “Can’t stay healthy, I still question him in the pocket, a little disappointing.”
Another GM said he was concerned for Mariota’s career at this point even though Mariota owns one more start than Winston, one fewer than Roethlisberger and the same number as Rodgers since entering the league in 2015.
“He is like Lamar Jackson to me,” a secondary coach said. “The guy could be good if they have a really good defense and they run the ball. If one of those components is not there and he has to start throwing the ball, he can’t.”
Another defensive coach also questioned Mariota’s passing ability.
“I don’t think he is confident, and he doesn’t make the tight throws,” this coach said. “Against guys like him, I tell my guys, ‘If we make them drive the length of the field, they’ll f— it up. Just make him go the whole way.’”
Other defensive coaches respected Mariota’s dual-threat ability and said if they’re going to face a midtier quarterback, they’d prefer to face one without Mariota’s running ability.
“I feel like he can open up the game at any time,” a defensive coordinator said. “I still respect his ability to run. He has been hurt, and that might drop him down a little, but he can break away at any time. You change your whole game plan when you face those guys.”
Tier 2 votes: 5 | Tier 3 votes: 37 | Tier 4 votes: 13
Darnold ranks a distant second to Mayfield among the first-round quarterbacks selected in 2018. Most voters were optimistic he would ascend this season.
“He moves better than you think, he’s got a really good arm, he’s accurate, he’s not nervous,” a head coach said. “I thought maybe he was nervous coming out of the draft. He is not nervous at all. He loves it. I think they got a good one there. I think that guy gives the Jets a chance moving forward when Brady retires in that division.”
Voters lauded Darnold’s makeup while calling him solid but unspectacular as a passer and needing work as a protector of the football.
“He has to fix his penchant for the turnovers,” a GM said. “He did it in college; he did it as a rookie. He is a great kid. He is really young. He has a chance to do it, but until he takes care of that issue, I think that will always haunt him a little bit.”
Darnold finished his rookie season with a 3.6 percent interception rate. That ranked 28th among 33 players with at least 200 attempts and was well above the 2.4 percent NFL average. The interception rate was 1.8 percent for the quarterbacks in Tier 1, 1.9 percent for the quarterbacks in Tier 2 and 2.2 percent for Darnold’s peers in Tier 3.
“I love him,” an offensive coordinator said. “He is a 3 that is going to be a 2, and if he learns not to turn the ball over, he will be a 1 at some point.”
Another offensive coach thought the blueprint new Jets head coach Adam Gase used to help reduce turnovers for Jay Cutler in Chicago could apply with Darnold initially. That is not to say anyone was comparing Darnold to Cutler otherwise.
“He has some special qualities,” a GM said of Darnold. “There is something about Sam. He makes you feel like you are going to win.”
Tier 4
A Tier 4 quarterback could be an unproven player with some upside or a veteran who is ultimately best suited as a backup.
Tier 2 votes: 1 | Tier 3 votes: 18 | Tier 4 votes: 34 | Tier 5 votes: 2
There are two kinds of Tier 4 quarterbacks: the veteran who ideally would not start all 16 games in a season (think Ryan Fitzpatrick), and the young player for which there simply is not enough evidence to make an evaluation (think Mahomes one year ago, when his résumé consisted of one start in a meaningless 2017 Week 17 game).
Jackson fits into the not-enough-evidence category. However, unlike with Mahomes last summer, a sizeable chunk of voters questioned whether Jackson could become a polished-enough passer for the Ravens to become contenders in the absence of a dominant defense and strong rushing attack. Some feared injuries would derail Jackson in the long term.
“I like Jackson,” a head coach said. “They built the offense around him, and he threw the ball a little better than they anticipated. There is a skill set to build around, and then he just needs to work really hard on the other stuff — sort of the way Alex Smith did in Kansas City when he became a much better deep passer.”
An offensive coordinator whose team faced Baltimore called Jackson a better runner than Colin Kaepernick but not nearly as good as a passer. Both quarterbacks had Greg Roman as their offensive coordinator, which voters thought was a good thing for Jackson. Coaches lauded Baltimore for completely changing its offensive style during the 2018 season to facilitate the change from Flacco to Jackson.
“My concern for Jackson is he was knocked out of games, playing only the last eight,” an evaluator said. “Still, I gave him a 3 instead of a 4 because he knows what he needs to work on. He said he needs to get better with his accuracy and seeing it quicker. It will be interesting to see if he can.”
One of the two voters who placed Jackson in the fifth tier called him a system-based quarterback in a system in which quarterbacks do not last long.
“I was high on Lamar coming out,” a personnel director said. “I think he’s a winner; he has the ‘it’ factor. It does not always show with his passing accuracy, but guys like Lamar who have the ability to electrify and bring their teammates together — that is a pretty cool deal.”
Tier 3 votes: 18 | Tier 4 votes: 36 | Tier 5 votes: 1
NFL teams averaged nearly 100 expected points added on pass attempts last season. The Bills were one of four teams whose passing attempts actually produced negative EPA. Buffalo was 32nd in that category while ranking No. 2, behind Green Bay, in EPA via quarterback scrambles.
The extent to which Allen can bridge that gap between rushing and passing production will say much about how voters view him in the future, because for all the value a dual-threat quarterback can bring, there are times when teams need their quarterbacks to pass effectively in order to win, especially in the absence of strong defensive support.
“Having played them, he tries to beat you with his feet,” an evaluator said. “I felt they really believe in his toughness and his intangibles, and both the team and organization believe he gives them a chance to win, but the accuracy is going to be the question.”
Some voters saw Allen as Buffalo’s version of Cam Newton now that Carolina alums Sean McDermott and Brandon Beane are running the Bills. These voters also noted that Buffalo is building a smaller receiving corps than Newton had with the Panthers, a potential concern for a team whose quarterback has accuracy issues.
“I think he’s a 4 with the arrow definitely pointing up,” an exec said. “I think he has to be careful. He is not as talented as Deshaun Watson, but everyone thinks because he can throw the ball 80 yards, that is a good thing. He holds the ball too long, he is not a quick decision-maker, he relies on his feet, and I don’t know over the long haul if you can stay healthy doing that. Where he is in his career, if you try to make him a passer, I’m afraid he’ll struggle.”
Tier 2 votes: 7 | Tier 3 votes: 38 | Tier 4 votes: 10
Manning keeps slipping in these rankings even though voters acknowledge the Giants’ offensive line has put him in a difficult position.
“I have a feeling Eli is going to do better than what people think,” a head coach said. “We can give him a 3 till he proves it, but I think he is more of a 2. Getting rid of that receiver (Odell Beckham Jr.) is a big thing. I think that guy was a (problem), but that is my own feeling.”
A defensive coordinator thought the Giants’ drafting of Daniel Jones in the first round could regenerate Manning mentally, making the team a candidate to surprise in 2019.
“I do agree he played OK at the end of the season, but I think he is a short-term 3,” a personnel director said. “Athletically, he is so limited at this point, but the cerebral part of it is there and there is enough arm there, and he will get it out quick.”
A short-term 3 is basically a 4 — a veteran who ideally would not start all 16 games. Ten voters put Manning in that fourth tier.
“Eli has ‘2’ moments, but if you are playing against a good pass rush and a good defense, he is greatly affected,” an offensive coordinator said.
Manning did complete 25 of 29 passes for 297 yards and two touchdowns against Houston early last season, but when I asked a coach to look at that game, he said the Giants were basically running under routes and running away from the Texans’ defensive leverage — a good plan but not necessarily great quarterbacking.
“If the pocket is clean and he can stand there and see the field, that is one thing,” this coach said. “When it is not, it’s tough. The top-tier guys can make it happen regardless.”
Tier 2 votes: 6 | Tier 3 votes: 39 | Tier 4 votes: 10
While some voters expressed serious concerns about Trubisky’s outlook, reviews were generally more favorable than his No. 25 ranking might indicate.
“He has a really good arm, he can make the great throw, he is a good deep-ball thrower, he is not afraid to stand in the pocket, he’s not afraid of the noise of getting hit, which is a good sign,” an offensive coordinator said. “I just don’t think he really knows what’s going on yet.”
Much is made of Trubisky’s relative inexperience. He attempted 572 passes during his college career. That’s a small number, but it’s more than 2019 No. 1 overall pick Kyler Murray attempted (519). Trubisky now has 26 NFL starts. His 15-11 record in those games traces largely to Chicago allowing 17.4 points per game in those 26 outings, the lowest over the past two seasons for any quarterback with at least 10 starts during that time.
“He’s a 3, and I like what I see, but he is more in the Andy Dalton category to me,” a former GM said. “When you get to the playoffs and things get tough, I’m not sure. When he has to win the game for you, I’m not sure. You need the good run game, you need the receivers, you need the really good coach, you need the good defense.”
Six voters placed Trubisky in the second tier, while others wondered whether he had the accuracy and anticipation to ascend.
“Even though they have Khalil (Mack) and some high-juice guys, it is his team,” an offensive coordinator said of Trubisky. “That is how it appears from the outside, and talking to people there, he is an awesome guy. His production is not great, but I think he has the ability. I think he is going to get better. He has what you need in terms of leadership at that position.”
Tier 2 votes: 2 | Tier 3 votes: 44 | Tier 4 votes: 9
Mariota enters his fifth-year option season facing two questions: Is he good enough to be a long-term starter? And can he get/stay healthy enough to play consistently? There’s more optimism regarding Mariota’s ability than his availability.
“I think they are looking for a guy next year,” a GM said. “Can’t stay healthy, I still question him in the pocket, a little disappointing.”
Another GM said he was concerned for Mariota’s career at this point even though Mariota owns one more start than Winston, one fewer than Roethlisberger and the same number as Rodgers since entering the league in 2015.
“He is like Lamar Jackson to me,” a secondary coach said. “The guy could be good if they have a really good defense and they run the ball. If one of those components is not there and he has to start throwing the ball, he can’t.”
Another defensive coach also questioned Mariota’s passing ability.
“I don’t think he is confident, and he doesn’t make the tight throws,” this coach said. “Against guys like him, I tell my guys, ‘If we make them drive the length of the field, they’ll f— it up. Just make him go the whole way.’”
Other defensive coaches respected Mariota’s dual-threat ability and said if they’re going to face a midtier quarterback, they’d prefer to face one without Mariota’s running ability.
“I feel like he can open up the game at any time,” a defensive coordinator said. “I still respect his ability to run. He has been hurt, and that might drop him down a little, but he can break away at any time. You change your whole game plan when you face those guys.”
Tier 2 votes: 5 | Tier 3 votes: 37 | Tier 4 votes: 13
Darnold ranks a distant second to Mayfield among the first-round quarterbacks selected in 2018. Most voters were optimistic he would ascend this season.
“He moves better than you think, he’s got a really good arm, he’s accurate, he’s not nervous,” a head coach said. “I thought maybe he was nervous coming out of the draft. He is not nervous at all. He loves it. I think they got a good one there. I think that guy gives the Jets a chance moving forward when Brady retires in that division.”
Voters lauded Darnold’s makeup while calling him solid but unspectacular as a passer and needing work as a protector of the football.
“He has to fix his penchant for the turnovers,” a GM said. “He did it in college; he did it as a rookie. He is a great kid. He is really young. He has a chance to do it, but until he takes care of that issue, I think that will always haunt him a little bit.”
Darnold finished his rookie season with a 3.6 percent interception rate. That ranked 28th among 33 players with at least 200 attempts and was well above the 2.4 percent NFL average. The interception rate was 1.8 percent for the quarterbacks in Tier 1, 1.9 percent for the quarterbacks in Tier 2 and 2.2 percent for Darnold’s peers in Tier 3.
“I love him,” an offensive coordinator said. “He is a 3 that is going to be a 2, and if he learns not to turn the ball over, he will be a 1 at some point.”
Another offensive coach thought the blueprint new Jets head coach Adam Gase used to help reduce turnovers for Jay Cutler in Chicago could apply with Darnold initially. That is not to say anyone was comparing Darnold to Cutler otherwise.
“He has some special qualities,” a GM said of Darnold. “There is something about Sam. He makes you feel like you are going to win.”
Tier 4
A Tier 4 quarterback could be an unproven player with some upside or a veteran who is ultimately best suited as a backup.
Tier 2 votes: 1 | Tier 3 votes: 18 | Tier 4 votes: 34 | Tier 5 votes: 2
There are two kinds of Tier 4 quarterbacks: the veteran who ideally would not start all 16 games in a season (think Ryan Fitzpatrick), and the young player for which there simply is not enough evidence to make an evaluation (think Mahomes one year ago, when his résumé consisted of one start in a meaningless 2017 Week 17 game).
Jackson fits into the not-enough-evidence category. However, unlike with Mahomes last summer, a sizeable chunk of voters questioned whether Jackson could become a polished-enough passer for the Ravens to become contenders in the absence of a dominant defense and strong rushing attack. Some feared injuries would derail Jackson in the long term.
“I like Jackson,” a head coach said. “They built the offense around him, and he threw the ball a little better than they anticipated. There is a skill set to build around, and then he just needs to work really hard on the other stuff — sort of the way Alex Smith did in Kansas City when he became a much better deep passer.”
An offensive coordinator whose team faced Baltimore called Jackson a better runner than Colin Kaepernick but not nearly as good as a passer. Both quarterbacks had Greg Roman as their offensive coordinator, which voters thought was a good thing for Jackson. Coaches lauded Baltimore for completely changing its offensive style during the 2018 season to facilitate the change from Flacco to Jackson.
“My concern for Jackson is he was knocked out of games, playing only the last eight,” an evaluator said. “Still, I gave him a 3 instead of a 4 because he knows what he needs to work on. He said he needs to get better with his accuracy and seeing it quicker. It will be interesting to see if he can.”
One of the two voters who placed Jackson in the fifth tier called him a system-based quarterback in a system in which quarterbacks do not last long.
“I was high on Lamar coming out,” a personnel director said. “I think he’s a winner; he has the ‘it’ factor. It does not always show with his passing accuracy, but guys like Lamar who have the ability to electrify and bring their teammates together — that is a pretty cool deal.”
Tier 3 votes: 18 | Tier 4 votes: 36 | Tier 5 votes: 1
NFL teams averaged nearly 100 expected points added on pass attempts last season. The Bills were one of four teams whose passing attempts actually produced negative EPA. Buffalo was 32nd in that category while ranking No. 2, behind Green Bay, in EPA via quarterback scrambles.
The extent to which Allen can bridge that gap between rushing and passing production will say much about how voters view him in the future, because for all the value a dual-threat quarterback can bring, there are times when teams need their quarterbacks to pass effectively in order to win, especially in the absence of strong defensive support.
“Having played them, he tries to beat you with his feet,” an evaluator said. “I felt they really believe in his toughness and his intangibles, and both the team and organization believe he gives them a chance to win, but the accuracy is going to be the question.”
Some voters saw Allen as Buffalo’s version of Cam Newton now that Carolina alums Sean McDermott and Brandon Beane are running the Bills. These voters also noted that Buffalo is building a smaller receiving corps than Newton had with the Panthers, a potential concern for a team whose quarterback has accuracy issues.
“I think he’s a 4 with the arrow definitely pointing up,” an exec said. “I think he has to be careful. He is not as talented as Deshaun Watson, but everyone thinks because he can throw the ball 80 yards, that is a good thing. He holds the ball too long, he is not a quick decision-maker, he relies on his feet, and I don’t know over the long haul if you can stay healthy doing that. Where he is in his career, if you try to make him a passer, I’m afraid he’ll struggle.”
