It'll be interesting how long they play the Guadalajara Cartel/Kiki story out. Because after the "Incident" Guadalajara will split which gives birth to the Tijuana, Sinoloa, and Juarez Cartel.
They could play this out over 2 seasons. Then go into Lord of Skies, with Chapo's capture, and then come to Chapo's prison escape in a new season.
What I would do is this:
Season 1 -- Guadalajara Cartel/ Kiki investigation.
Season 2 -- Guadalajara Cartel fall -- ending with the split of the cartel into Juarez, Sinoloa, and Tijuana.
Season 3 -- Lord of Skies/Chapo's arrest.
Season 4 -- Chapo's prison escape/takeover of the drug trade. Birth of The Zetas.
Season 5 -- Chapo warring with other cartels in Mexico.