November 2, 2013
The Real Reason to Fear de Blasio
How much does NYC have to fear from the impending de Blasio victory? The
FT’s Christopher Caldwell, who also writes for the
Weekly Standard,
is comfortingly blasé. De Blasio only intends to raise taxes on people making more than $500,000 and he can’t even do that unless the legislature and the governor go along (they may not). The rich, therefore, are not going to flee New York even if the pro-sandinista candidate gets into Gracie Mansion, Caldwell assures us.
Caldwell is probably right that we we need not fear a mass exodus of the rich after de Blaiso wins. For one thing, there is more for rich people in New York than anywhere else. For another, de Blaiso wouldn’t really be at all interested in driving the wealthy plutocrats out of town. Democratic politicians like to excoriate the wealthy in public, but they suck up to in private. De Blasio will go after Wall Street rhetorically while kissing the Don’s ring behind closed doors, so there are few worries of that kind.
Nor is the problem education, per se. As a politician in favor of teacher unions, de Blasio doesn’t like charter schools, so it’s likely that poor kids in New York and their parents could wind up with fewer choices. But if poor schools could destroy New York, the city would have declined into ruins twenty years ago.
One bigger threat that the city could face during a de Blasio mayorship is from the impending end of QE. Since 2008 Wall Street has been floating first on TARP money and lavish bailouts of big banks, and quantitative easing has been a huge boost to the financial industry. At some point, the music will stop, and NY’s tax revenue is likely to take a major hit. Still, a de Blasio administration isn’t going to push the city into immediate bankruptcy.
What
is likely to happen is that under his leadership the forces of entropic doom that are gradually wrecking the city’s middle class will gain strength—like a python slowly tightening the coils around its prey. Small businesses will groan under new loads of regulations. They won’t look like tax increases, but they will raise costs and make it harder to start a business or build an existing one. The cost of fixing infrastructure and running the city will grow as the unions claim their pound of flesh. More hidden but ultimately unsustainable costs will be shifted to the future through pension agreements. New York will become more and more a town of financiers, hotel maids and public and quasi-public employees because fewer and fewer normal businesses will be able to make it.
It has the makings of a blue death spiral. As regulations and “pro-poor” policies undermine the climate for most private sector business (manufacturing was largely driven out long ago), the politics will become polarized. The mass of poor, increasingly state-dependent inhabitants—who either work for the government, in government-supported sectors like health care, or survive on government welfare payments— will “vote their pocketbooks” for higher taxes and more entitlements.
The real middle class will be driven out of the city bit by bit, perhaps replaced in part by new waves of immigrants, but they too will head out as soon as they can. The city’s possibilities will continue to narrow as the financial problems get worse. For a while, Wall Street will stand by with innovative debt products (and associated fees); New York will have the most complicated bonds and indentures that its financial wizards can create.
We hope this won’t happen. New York is a wonderful place, and it is more important than ever that cities other than Washington maintain their health, their vigor and their cultural life. But nothing in the de Blasio campaign suggests anything other than an era of quiet as the city slowly wraps itself in a comfy blue coc00n.
[Bill de Blasio photo courtesy of Getty Images]
http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2013/11/02/the-real-reason-to-fear-de-blasio/