Nothing against Nashville, I know they got next, but no way the Sox leave the #3 market. Just field a good team again, start winning, and then go for a new stadium in Chicago. Plus expansion has to come after the A's & Rays situations are stable
That's a more than fair point on the Sox...
The MLB expansion candidates in terms of market size, which is super relevant in every league except the NFL; I'm bolding the existing MLB cities that are smaller than the candidates, who currently have a squad:
#2 in Canada, Montreal
16. Orlando
17. Denver
18. Miami
19. Cleveland
20. Sacramento
21. Charlotte
22. Raleigh
23. Portland
24. St Louis
26. Nashville
27. Salt Lake
28. Pittsburgh
29. Baltimore
30. San Diego
34. Kansas City
35. Austin
37. Cincinnati
38. Milwaukee
Austin is a bigger market than two existing MLB cities; Nashville and Salt Lake are bigger markets than six existing MLB cities; Sacramento, Charlotte, Raleigh, and Portland are bigger markets than seven existing MLB cities; and Orlando is a bigger market than 10 of the 27 existing MLB cities...
It's hard to quantify Canada markets, but Montreal is the second biggest city in the country, is bigger than all the US candidates, and I'd assume has a larger market share than 15 of the 27 existing MLB markets...
Looking at this logically, the question of oversaturation will come into play. Salt Lake (2024, Utah Hockey) and Nashville (2020, Nashville SC) recently earned a third major league franchise---->they are the two smallest cities with three majors. Three majors in a city that size has proven to be sustainable; Cleveland, KC, Cincy, and Pittsburgh are similar size cities that have had three franchises for a long time...
But should SLC or Nashville get a FOURTH major league franchise, you'd be entering unprecedented territory, as the smallest city with four majors is Seattle, which is effectively twice the size of Nashville...
Phoenix is 2½ times as big as Nashville and just lost it's 4th squad. Conversely, if and when Vegas gets it's next team, it'll only be it's 3rd team, and again three majors in a Vegas-sized city has proven sustainable...
Nashville has been the early favorite but I think long term it loses based upon the fear of oversaturation---->can a city as small as Nashville support 4 majors? Salt Lake is a little smaller than Nashville, I think their bid loses for the same reason...
Charlotte is a full ⅓ bigger than Nashville, so there's a larger population base to draw from, but it's still 44% smaller than Nashville, so of Charlotte were to get a 4th team, I think the same question would be asked. Can Charlotte support four majors?
They are, in the early stages, trailing Raleigh as an expansion candidate anyway. I think they ultimately lose the bid too, MLB will side with markets that don't have the fear of oversaturation...
So to me, this leaves 6 cities vying for expansion...
Sacramento is in the best shape, if we show out the next 3 years and the A's still go to Vegas, lock us in for the Western expansion team. If the Vegas deal dissipates, the A's stay in Sacramento...
I think MLB in Sacramento is here to stay beginning 2025, for good. Whether it's the A's or an expansion team, we have a team here for good...
So then that leaves Montreal, Orlando, and Raleigh as the Eastern expansion candidate. Selfishly, because I live in Raleigh, a dream world has a team in both Rgh and Sac for me. But Montreal and Orlando have advantages over Raleigh...
If Sac keeps the A's, MLB is out on Vegas, and I think it becomes Portland as the Westside frontrunner...