Obama was never going to lose. As long as he doesn't get caught sniffing coke off of a white intern's ass, he's got it in the bag. I don't know why people try to make predictions without studying the electoral math.
All you need is the RCP map.
RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map
You need to get to 270 electoral votes to win. 237 are going to Obama pretty much guaranteed, 191 to Romney. Then you look at the swing states, 110 electoral votes that will decide the election.
Colorado (9)
Florida (29)
Iowa (6)
Nevada (6)
New Hampshire (4)
North Carolina (15)
Ohio (18)
Virginia (13)
Wisconsin (10)
Some polls lean left, some lean right. RCP averages all the major polls, so it's a pretty damn accurate barometer. Out of 110 swing electoral votes, Romney needs 79 to win. That's a tall order even if the polls in the swing states were even or in his direction. But out of those 9 swing states, Obama has a slight lead in every one of them except for NC. The odds that Romney comes back and somehow manages to almost run the table in those states and get 79 out of 110 electoral votes are practically nil barring some Earth-shattering Watergate-level scandal for the Obama administration.
The result of the popular vote will look close, something like 52 to 48%. But the electoral vote won't be. Obama will win by about 70 electoral votes. The media is presenting this election like it's closer than it is because they want to hype up a story, but it's really not. We should be more worried about if he's going to finally grow some balls in his second term and stop always settling for the path of least resistance.