March 15 Primaries - John used to get it in Ohio

[Swagnificent]

Where does Trump shyt on black people? Serious question.

If you shyt on other minorities, you best believe he hates black people as well.

Plus he's posted those false tweets about black violence statistics. He has stated multiple times that police are mistreated in this country and all lives matter. He's refused to reject the KKK. As a businessman he refused to rent to black folks in his buildings. And so on.

If you don't think Trump hates black folks as well, your a MORON.

 

[714562]

Where does Trump shyt on black people? Serious question.

I've heard him repeatedly saying things like, "We're not being fair to the police in this country. We're not treating them fairly at all."

I'm paraphrasing, but that's a pretty clear dog whistle.

 

[Swagnificent]

In NC, I haven't seen a single poll include unaffiliated voters. The state is an open primary and there are damn near 2 million people here registered with that affiliation who could vote on either side. Basically fukkery could be on tap tonight

Hillary was in NC last night. And Sanders campaigned there earlier yesterday. Looks like it might be more of a contest than the media thinks.

If NC is in play tonight, Hillary is fukked.

 

[SirReginald]

Anyway, let's focus on now rather than later. We are all adults here, so let's conduct ourselves as such.

 

[Swagnificent]

The math is not difficult for Bernie it's impossible.

I hope everyone realizes that at this point in 2008 Clinton was like 130 delegates behind Obama and she went on to lose. Bernie is 206 delegates behind Clinton. This is pledged delegates not counting supers.

Even if he gets a few wins today they'll probably be nail biters like Michigan and with the proportional delegate splits he isn't going to make any gains on his deficit. He's not even treading water here. As he narrowly wins states he ultimately falls further behind.

It's not impossible if you look at the upcoming states. When Hillary and Obama faced off, the map was not front loaded with favorable states for one candidate or another.

This year all the southern states voted first. This is what gave Hillary the big lead. If you notice, outside the deep south bernie has beat her.


He's gonna close that gap after March 15 cause all his white states are coming up.

 

[Atlrocafella]

It's not impossible if you look at the upcoming states. When Hillary and Obama faced off, the map was not front loaded with favorable states for one candidate or another.

This year all the southern states voted first. This is what gave Hillary the big lead. If you notice, outside the deep south bernie has beat her.


He's gonna close that gap after March 15 cause all his white states are coming up.

Bernie would need to beat Hillary with a wide margin in the remaining states to catch up to her. It's not good enough for Bernie to narrowly win.

Bernie is going to get worked in Florida, that alone is going to make Hillary the clear nominee. Everyone made a big deal about Michigan, when in fact, they basically split the delegate count in that state. Bernie didn't gain on her at all.

 

[Honga Ciganesta]

 

[Swagnificent]

where does he start blowing her out at? He needs several states with larger populations to go overwhelmingly in his favor like she had in the south. it just ain't happening.

Washington
Oregon
Montana
Wyoming
North Dakota
South Dakota
Idaho
Utah
Wisconsin
Indiana
West Virginia
Alaska
Connecticut
Rhode Island

That's 14 states he'll win by 60-40 margins at least. In some cases even more. Just look at the blowouts he's had in white states like Minnesota, Colorado, and New Hampshire. All by 20+ point margins.

If he kills her in those states, he can net at least 150 delegates.

Then there is California. 456 delegates. If he wins that state by 10 points, he can net another 100 delegates.

That's 250 delegates made up in a flash.


And I haven't even talked about states like New Mexico and Arizona that he can compete given his better standing with Hispanic voters compared to black folks. Pennsylvania and New York should be close once he gets all this momentum. New Jersey as well.

The only Hillary blowouts possible after March 15 is Maryland and Kentucky. The only 2 states left in the south or with a huge black population.


Bernie can win this. It's not impossible at all. The media just wants us to believe that so we don't vote for him right now.

I'm confident that if Bernie wins Ohio, Illinois, and Missouri tonight while keeping NC close, he'll be the nominee.

 

[Swagnificent]

Bernie would need to beat Hillary with a wide margin in the remaining states to catch up to her. It's not good enough for Bernie to narrowly win.

Bernie is going to get worked in Florida, that alone is going to make Hillary the clear nominee. Everyone made a big deal about Michigan, when in fact, they basically split the delegate count in that state. Bernie didn't gain on her at all.

No shyt. And if you look at what's left, it's a lot of states that look like the states he's beaten her by 20+ points.

The entire northwest hasn't voted yet. Almost no minorities, that'll be bernie country like Kansas and Minnesota. No more largely black states left other than maryland, which means Hillary can't expand her lead anymore.

I truly believe if bernie has a good night tonight, the nomination comes down to California. 456 pledge delegates at stake.

Even a 10 point victory net you 100+ delegates. That's enough to flip Hillary delegate lead once bernie eats into it with all the western states.

 

[Bawon Samedi]

Washington
Oregon
Montana
Wyoming
North Dakota
South Dakota
Idaho
Utah
Wisconsin
Indiana
West Virginia
Alaska
Connecticut
Rhode Island

That's 14 states he'll win by 60-40 margins at least. In some cases even more. Just look at the blowouts he's had in white states like Minnesota, Colorado, and New Hampshire. All by 20+ point margins.

If he kills her in those states, he can net at least 150 delegates.

Then there is California. 456 delegates. If he wins that state be 10 points, he can net another 100 delegates.

That's 250 delegates made up in a flash.


And I haven't even talked about states like New Mexico and Arizona that he can compete given his better standing with Hispanic voters compared to black folks. Pennsylvania and New York should be close once he gets all this momentum. New Jersey as well.

The only Hillary blowouts possible after March 15 is Maryland and Kentucky. The only 2 states left in the south or with a huge black population.


Bernie can win this. It's not impossible at all. The media just wants us to believe that so we don't vote for him right now.

I'm confident is bernie wins Ohio, Illinois, and Missouri tonight while keeping NC close, he'll be the nominee.

Lets just hope...

 

[Atlrocafella]

No shyt. And if you look at what's left, it's a lot of states that look like the states he's beaten her by 20+ points.

The entire northwest hasn't voted yet. Almost no minorities, that'll be bernie country like Kansas and Minnesota. No more largely black states left other than maryland, which means Hillary can't expand her lead anymore.

I truly believe if bernie has a good night tonight, the nomination comes down to California. 456 pledge delegates at stake.

Even a 10 point victory net you 100+ delegates. That's enough to flip Hillary delegate lead once bernie eats into it with all the western states.

What's a good night for Bernie tonight? Just want your perspective.

 

[Swagnificent]

It's not impossible, but just highly unlikely. He needs to win 54% of the remaining delegates (ignoring superdelegates). The big wins he needs are going to be in the western states and NY/CA. I don't see him winning CA at all. If he does well today, California will eventually end him. Even blowout wins in Washington, Oregon, etc. won't be enough. Black people in the South ended Sanders, nikkas will be bitter about that for a minute

How come? California doesn't have a huge black population like the deep south where Hillary did well. In fact, on every state outside the south, Bernie has won or barely lost (Iowa/Massachusetts).

The most recent poll we have of California was in December, before anyone outside Iowa and New Hampshire knew Bernie and he was only trailing by about 10 points. That was better than his standing in the national polls where he was down 20-30 points.

If anything, California looks like a pro Bernie state. And it's an OPEN PRIMARY. In every primary that has allowed independents to vote, Bernie has won. And in most cases by ALOT.

 

[Swagnificent]

What's a good night for Bernie tonight? Just want your perspective.

Win Ohio, Illinois, and Missouri. Don't get slaughtered too badly in NC and Florida.

I'll be dancing in the streets if this happens:

OH: 51-49 Sanders
IL: 51-49 Sanders
MO: 54-46 Sanders
NC: 56-44 Clinton
FL: 59-41 Clinton

That's an AMAZING night for Bernie.

 

[ADevilYouKhow]

 

[theworldismine13]

Delegate Simulator
The Presidential Election Delegate Simulator