Let's get it on the record, before the season starts: NFL Predictions

[Trip]

Advanced NFL Stats: Fumbles and Fumbles Lost

and please read about the randomness of fumbles.

I dont get why Niners fans are so sensitive about it being more difficult to win in this league consistently with a below average QB.

 

[ComputersPutin]

Dolphins will have a winning record this year.

 

[yseJ]

wait...wait...the comeback that the offense had to make was because the defense was playing at a high level?

yes. well most of it, the TD at the end to jimmy was one of the very few big mistakes by the D.
the D was what kept their asses in the game and kept them with a lead for most of the time, as the offense struggled to do much after an early lead.

but let me guess the 49ers red zone D that was nearly record-breaking in a year where offense was through the roof...was also pure luck

 

[23Barrettcity]

Michael boley disagrees

 

[obarth]

fumble recoveries are complete luck

also we were talking about Thomas fumble...this wasnt a strip sack on a QB.

You quoted a guy attributing their success in the game to the 5 turnovers they forced. The Thomas fumble was brought up later. And even then, Whitner didn't put his helmet on the ball, but he knocked Thomas out, thus forcing the fumble. That hit on Thomas was a product of the 9ers defensive philosophy. They're going to hit you hard and often. Their D smothered the run all season. Recovering fumbles is just as much a product of philosophy. The best defenses finish plays and swarm to the ball. Seeing these things as luck is looking at them at the shallowest level.

 

[LastEmperor2k2]

Advanced NFL Stats: Fumbles and Fumbles Lost

and please read about the randomness of fumbles.

I dont get why Niners fans are so sensitive about it being more difficult to win in this league consistently with a below average QB.

All you know is what the websites tell you man.

You're like brainwashed whenever football discussion comes up, always bringing up some site and acting like it's gospel. You pick some random site to discuss instead of the actual plays in the game we're talking baout, hence you don't know shyt but what the interweb tells you.

As to the bolded, what does that even have to do with our discussion of you being foolish enough to say the 49ers D didn't win that game.

From now on you're http/www.tripforinfo.com/randomobscurewebsitestat3526

 

[Ohene]

fukk records for every team....

1 Packers 12-4
2 Iggles 12-4
3 Panthers 11-5
4 49ers 9-7
5 Giants 10-6
6 Lions 9-7

 

[daboywonder2002]

1. if berry and charles are back healthy as claimed, chiefs will win afc west

2. the carolina panthers will finish 2nd in the nfc south.

3. kendall wright will have 1000 yds plus receving as a rookie

 

[FTBS]

But that Giants playoff D was very different than their regular season numbers, I think we all agree on that.

And truth be told, both the Giants & Pats got to the SB on some super flukey shyt when they beat those top 5 defensive teams.

Not gonnna argue anythign you said there. My only point has been that having a top defense isn't what it used to be due to the rule changes and the way that the game is being more and more restrictive to defenses and thusly slowly fazing it out of the game.

 

[Trip]

That hit on Thomas was a product of the 9ers defensive philosophy. They're going to hit you hard and often.

Oh really? So there are teams in the league that dont have that philosophy? Which defensive coaches are telling their teams to not hit other teams hard?

Their D smothered the run all season. Recovering fumbles is just as much a product of philosophy. The best defenses finish plays and swarm to the ball. Seeing these things as luck is looking at them at the shallowest level.

If you want to be purposely ignorant regarding the randomness of fumble recoveries that is totally on you. Its cut and dry and has been proven over time that there isnt any team that's better at recovering fumbles than another. No team leads the league in fumble recoveries consistently. It varies from season to season.

Stripping the ball is a skill. Holding onto the ball is a skill. Pouncing on the ball as it is bouncing all over the place is not a skill. There is no correlation whatsoever between the percentage of fumbles recovered by a team in one year and the percentage they recover in the next year. The odds of recovery are based solely on the type of play involved, not the teams or any of their players.
Fans like to insist that specific coaches can teach their teams to recover more fumbles by swarming to the ball. Chicago's Lovie Smith, in particular, is supposed to have this ability. However, since Smith took over the Bears, their rate of fumble recovery on defense went from a league-best 76 percent to a league-worst 33 percent in 2005, then back to 67 percent in 2006. Last year, they recovered 57 percent of fumbles, close to the league average.
Fumble recovery is equally erratic on offense. In 2008, the Bears fumbled 12 times on offense and recovered only three of them. In 2009, the Bears fumbled 18 times on offense, but recovered 13 of them.
Fumble recovery is a major reason why the general public overestimates or underestimates certain teams. Fumbles are huge, turning-point plays that dramatically impact wins and losses in the past, while fumble recovery percentage says absolutely nothing about a team's chances of winning games in the future. With this in mind, Football Outsiders stats treat all fumbles as equal, penalizing them based on the likelihood of each type of fumble (run, pass, sack, etc.) being recovered by the defense.
Other plays that qualify as "non-predictive events" include blocked kicks and touchdowns during turnover returns. These plays are not "lucky," per se, but they have no value whatsoever for predicting future performance.

 

[FTBS]

what times youre comparing today to tho ? compared to 10 years ago.

Yeah. The importance of having top defense is at an all-time low in the league's history. Not gonna say you don't need any defense at all but the sea change that has occured in great part due to the rule changes. Things that used to be just good defense that teams used to slow down great offenses (huge hits, physical play) have been legislated out of the game and it's becoming more and more of a qbs game. Defense still has to play it's part but it's not what cats who came up in the 90's, 80's or even further back are used to.

 

[LastEmperor2k2]

Not gonnna argue anythign you said there. My only point has been that having a top defense isn't what it used to be due to the rule changes and the way that the game is being more and more restrictive to defenses and thusly slowly fazing it out of the game.

No I definitely agree with you, the game has been tailored towards the offense. But look at the last 2 champs and they could do both, the Giants d was ferocious in the playoff stretch and the Packers has very good coverage and go to the QB. Hell even the Saints SB run, defense cause a ton of turnovers.

I`m saying it can't just be all offense like last year w/ GB, NO and NE.

 

[obarth]

Oh really? So there are teams in the league that dont have that philosophy? Which defensive coaches are telling their teams to not hit other teams hard?




If you want to be purposely ignorant regarding the randomness of fumble recoveries that is totally on you. Its cut and dry and has been proven over time that there isnt any team that's better at recovering fumbles than another. No team leads the league in fumble recoveries consistently. It varies from season to season.

The only one ignorant is you. Yes, for those who bother to watch other teams besides their own, the 9ers were the most physical. Nowhere did I say no other team had that philosophy, but it's easier trying to subtly change my argument instead of arguing it at face value. Watching the Packers not wrap up the Giants receivers and then watching the Giants play the 9ers are you really gonna sit there and dispute that? I read your link, and it has nothing to do with what I said yet again. I said seeing it as luck is looking at it at the shallowest level, which means I admit luck is a part of it. In my first response I said fumble recoveries are a little more based on luck because of the unpredictable bounce of the ball. But if you're a disciplined defense that always finishes off every play and swarms to the ball you'll be more likely to have a player in position to recover. What is so hard to understand about that? If fumble recoveries were completely random and the defense had absolutely no say then why do teams actively have fumble recovery drills? Again, you're looking at it in an extremely shallow perspective. You're stuck on "they don't know where the ball is gonna go ", when the point is wherever the ball does go, a defense with a certain philosophy, that has drilled on the technique for recovering the ball does have a better chance of recovering it.

 

[Trip]

The only one ignorant is you. Yes, for those who bother to watch other teams besides their own, the 9ers were the most physical. Nowhere did I say no other team had that philosophy, but it's easier trying to subtly change my argument instead of arguing it at face value. Watching the Packers not wrap up the Giants receivers and then watching the Giants play the 9ers are you really gonna sit there and dispute that? I read your link, and it has nothing to do with what I said yet again. I said seeing it as luck is looking at it at the shallowest level, which means I admit luck is a part of it. In my first response I said fumble recoveries are a little more based on luck because of the unpredictable bounce of the ball. But if you're a disciplined defense that always finishes off every play and swarms to the ball you'll be more likely to have a player in position to recover. What is so hard to understand about that? If fumble recoveries were completely random and the defense had absolutely no say then why do teams actively have fumble recovery drills? Again, you're looking at it in an extremely shallow perspective. You're stuck on "they don't know where the ball is gonna go ", when the point is wherever the ball does go, a defense with a certain philosophy, that has drilled on the technique for recovering the ball does have a better chance of recovering it.

fumble recoveries are 100% random. There is no correlation to team defense to fumble recoveries whatsoever. You can say "swarm" and "wrapped up better" and "hit harder" all you want...but the numbers don't back up what you are saying. Google it yourself. You'll notice the variance from season to season.

 

[LastEmperor2k2]

fumble recoveries are 100% random. There is no correlation to team defense to fumble recoveries whatsoever. You can say "swarm" and "wrapped up better" and "hit harder" all you want...but the numbers don't back up what you are saying. Google it yourself. You'll notice the variance from season to season.

You really are a Grade-A shmuck.

So every fumble recovery in history is 100% random right?

Nobody ever knocked a ball out of a guys hand, knew it and jumped on it first.

You know nothing of football outside of what the internet tells you, dweeb.