Dar es Salaam — Political instability is likely to cast a dark shadow over the ambition of the Democratic Republic of Congo to join the East Africa Community (EAC), analysts have said.
The DR Congo is yet to formally apply to join the regional bloc. But on a three-day official visit to Tanzania last week, President Joseph Kabila told his host, President John Magufuli, of his country's plans to join the EAC.
He noted that DRC, despite sharing borders, already enjoys close economic and political ties with all of the EAC member states - Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, Burundi, Rwanda and South Sudan.
President Magufuli, who is the current EAC chairman, told reporters after a closed-door meeting with the DRC leader, that he had advised Mr Kabila to submit a formal application for the heads of state to discuss.
The timeline for the application is still sketchy, but political analysts have said the DR Congo faces a daunting task in the number of issues it will have to address to clean up its image and meet the criteria for EAC membership. Issues to be addressed include the protracted political unrest, strengthening of the rule of law, fighting against organised crime and corruption.
Mr Godwin Aman, an international relations expert with the Dar es Salaam-based Centre for Foreign Affairs, said the DRC still faces a major democracy problem. He also cited rebel groups controlling a significant portion of country as a headache for EAC heads of state, whose responsibility it is to admit new members.
"Everybody is aware right now that President Kabila is trying to hold on to power at the end of his constitutional term, there is high potential for instability, and the EAC must be prepared to share its troubles," he told Political Platform.
The DRC crisis escalated recently following weeks of demonstration by citizens opposed to the postponement of presidential elections scheduled for next month but now pushed to 2017.
The opposition suspects that Mr Kabila is planning to stay in office beyond the expiry of his current term in November 2016, alleging that he is trying to delay elections.
At least 50 people have died in the unrest,
wMalawi@tz.nationmedia.comhich culminated into clashes between police and demonstrators three weeks ago.
President Kabila assured his host last week that the situation in his country was not as bad as reported. He described it as a "normal crisis" any nation faces ahead of a key election.
Still, the recent history of the DR Congo has been one of civil war and corruption The vast country is yet to fully recover from what some observers call "Africa's world war", which claimed an up to six million lives, either as a direct result of fighting or because of disease and malnutrition.
The war had an economic as well as a political side. Fighting was fuelled by the country's vast mineral wealth, with all sides taking advantage of the anarchy to plunder natural resources. Some militia fight on in the east, where a big United Nations force is trying to keep the peace.
If the tough stance the EAC heads of state took on crisis-ridden South Sudan and Somalia are anything to go by, it may be a long while before the DR Congo is admitted into the regional bloc.
The 1999 EAC Treaty sets out conditions for membership, including adherence to universally acceptable principles of good governance, democracy, rule of law, observance of human rights and social justice.
While delivering the State of EAC Address in Bujumbura in Mach last year, Mr Jakaya Kikwete, then the Tanzanian president and chair of the regional bloc, said democracy, good governance, human rights and rule of law are critical tenets of the EAC.
"Better governed member states contribute to a prosperous region... badly governed states frustrate integration. It impedes trade, co-operation, as well as movement of people, goods, services and capital. Moreover, it deters investment and makes the region an unfavourable destination for investment and trade," said Mr Kikwete.
Before the country was finally admitted this year, South Sudan's bid to join the community suffered a major setback following the break out of a civil war pitting forces loyal to sacked Vice-President Riek Machar against those supporting President Salva Kiir Mayardit.
The now newest EAC member had to push to be admitted to the EAC since 2011, soon after it obtained Independence from Sudan.
In December 2012, EAC members rejected South Sudan's application, citing its periodic conflict with neighbouring Sudan, not holding democratic elections and lack of a democratic culture.
At the time, Tanzania was concerned about Juba's nascent economic institutions and its post-war reconstruction programmes. Tanzania felt that the country was not ready to join the Community.
However, not everyone thinks it will a tough road for DR Congo, mainly for two reasons.
Mr Hamad Salim, a political analyst at the Open University of Tanzania (OUT), noted that the question of democracy is neither here nor there among the current EAC member states.
"Basically, all EAC countries, including Tanzania, have questionable democracy. Inviting other countries with immature democracy will actually pave the way for collective adjustment," he said.
"When the EU invited countries from East Europe, the invited countries had nothing like democracy in their setups, but they rearranged and realised the democracy together. The most important thing is for the region to have strategy."
There may also be precedence.
Burundi was admitted into the bloc shortly after a 13-year civil war without meeting all the criteria, but had conducted its first peaceful elections in 2005.
While South Sudan had not held any democratic elections when it faced stiff resistance, the DR Congo held its first free elections in four decades in 2006. Mr Kabila won the run-off vote.
Besides, observers said the country banked on the many business and social links it had with EAC partner states, especially Kenya and Uganda, an asset that DR Congo arguably currently has.
An alumnus of the University of Dar es Salaam (UDSM), President Kabila enjoys cordial relations with Tanzania, where he spent the greater part of his childhood.
The Kabila family lived in Dar es Salaam under the discreet protection of the then-President Julius Nyerere - a man President Kabila claims is his "role model".
Just last week, he signed major deals with President Magufuli, in what could be an important step in getting the respected Tanzanian leader to his side as his country lobbies for the EAC membership.
On Tuesday, Tanzania and the Democratic Republic of the Congo signed a memorandum of understanding for joint exploration and development of hydrocarbons in Lake Tanganyika.
This comes as interest is heating up in East Africa as a new hydrocarbon region after major discoveries of oil in Uganda and natural gas in Tanzania and Mozambique.
Others also argue that even without much reform DR Congo's bid to join the EAC may win widespread support with member states. One of Africa's largest nations, the DRC is endowed with a significant amount of natural resources, which include the recently discovered oil, minerals, water, forests and rich agricultural lands.
