The progressive revolution was born out of people's frustration with the Obama administration's failures. Bernie Sanders didn't run as a response to Trump. He ran to move the party to the left of Obama and he succeeded as far as rhetoric goes. Pressley and Omar running in 2018 was a logical step in their political careers, while Tlaib and AOC claim to be inspired by Sanders (Tlaib was a term-limited out in 2014 as well). It's very likely all four of them would be in office in President Hillary's timeline and I could see Katie Porter running too given her career arc and political ties. The Blue Wave obviously doesn't happen, but that was largely driven by flipping red/purple seats to blue so it's irrelevant to your progressive revolution argument.
First, thanks for taking the time to write out a good rebuttal! Very much appreciated.
This is an interesting take. I don't think I'm arguing that the progressive wave would have never taken place if Hillary was elected, but rather that the shape would have been altered and the timing crucially delayed compared to this timeline.
While I agree that the frustration with the Obama Administration's failures is an animating characteristic of this progressive wave, I don't see how the election of Hillary Clinton (and consequential legitimization of the centrist, neoliberal ruling order) would have been as hospitable an environment for both the practical and ideological movement of the progressives. As you correctly point out, the relative success of the '16 Sanders candidacy proves that people knew something was wrong with the existing order (hell, Occupy was 2011 and Brand New Congress was formed after Sanders conceded, so those are more points of evidence), but it was only in Clinton's loss that people saw just how ill-equipped the current order was to deal with the current crises of our era. I really don't believe Bernie would be as powerful and influential as he is now if he was just the gadfly loser to President Clinton as opposed to the guy who would have beaten Trump. Justice Dems formed in response to Trump's victory. If Hillary had won, do you believe there would have been millions taking to the streets to protest the Obama Administration's failures? I don't see where that groundswell of political energy amongst the masses comes from. Most of them still love Obama! Trump's election was a mass education in how fukked up the system is, and it provided legitimacy to out of the box solutions. I don't think it's a fluke that none of these progressives ran or got elected during the Obama years. He was an anesthetic. The 2014 midterms had a turnout of 36.4%! The progressive movement is one of the masses, it is impossible to have a progressive wave in a sub-40% turnout year.
Let's take it out of the realm of hypotheticals for a moment. Look at the actual actions being taken by Nancy Pelosi and the Democratic Leadership to marginalize the progressive movement right now. The only reason the progressives are able to fight back is because they have a broad, popular mandate and are supported by the people. The idea that they would be just as powerful without the shadow of Donald Trump lurking over the entire proceedings seems a stretch to me. He's an existential phenomenon. Surely the structural issues that people were noticing would have continued, but the movement would be neutered by Hillary telling everyone everything is ok. I believe the progressive wave is inexorable, but I think we would have had to wait another cycle for things to really pop off, and by then the structural volatility would have rendered the fascist response far more palatable to the masses.
Now let's lightly touch on reality. There's a good chance that Joe Biden will win the nomination, so we may not get President Warren and the Squad. Next, Trump has appointed over 120 federal judges so good luck passing progressive legislation when the courts will just strike it down. Even if you did get a court to rule favorably the Republican Supreme Court can just strike it down. We haven't touched on foreign policy, the climate crisis, the manufactured border crisis, the erosion of executive agencies, the rolling back of Obama era financial protections, or the increase in hate crimes.
Trump may not be the worst thing to happen to America, but the margin of error we have with some of these issues certainly makes it feel that way...
If Joe Biden wins the nomination, God help this country. It's above me now.
To your point about Trump and the Judiciary, I've long believed that the courts - in their current state - are hopelessly fukked. Trump has been an absolute beast as remaking the courts in his image, but he didn't invent conservative judicial philosophy, its been there for a while now, stymying progressive legislation. I think your analysis here is correct. It's an institutionalist fantasy to believe the progressive wave can unfold with the courts as they are. Ultimately, they need to be remade one way or another. FDR faced similar intransigence from the Supreme Court, but he understood that power is not a submissive force, it's a dominant force, and threatened to pack the motherfukker. Luckily, we have a nominee this time around who believes the same. It's one of the biggest reasons I'm a Liz booster, she understand that structural changes that need to be made to the American political system and is willing to follow through on them. I have no illusions about the depth and breadth of the rot in this system. The overhaul will need to be dramatic. You can't get there by half-steps or incrementalism. Trump provided the context and just cause for those necessary, dramatic actions.
