John Hopkins: 2700+ died in the last 24 Hours In The U.S.
- Thread starter Arithmetic
- Start date
the bossman
Superstar
What is there to gain by inflating the numbers? What advantages does that give them?
you realize they getting money from the federal government for every corona case lmao,
this is the problem when healthcare is a for profit business not a government agency, they already trying to find any reason to give you drugs or cut you open, because this is how they make money, why wouldn't want to keep this shyt when theirs a trillion dollars out there they all eating off on as long as this covid shyt continues lmao
AquaCityBoy
Veteran
UpThruDere
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More fear and stripping away of rights for starters, the country is basically on house arrest already over this overhyped pandemic.
Not to mention the monetary gain
For all the people who think the count is being manufactured... what incentive do doctors (who are overwhelmingly republican based on their lobbying, donation history & demographics in this country) have to rig the numbers in a way that hurts their president?
Under NORMAL conditions, only about 8% of deaths are autopsied. Now NYC has 300% higher death rates than normal and you want to autopsy EVERY one of them? And with super stringent containment and personal protection policies too that will cause every autopsy to take significantly longer and use up more resources?
To put it another way, NYC usually had around 12 autopsies on a given day, now you want that same city to autopsy 600+ people a day under more difficult than usual conditions. When they don't even have enough fukking tests to go around for LIVING people.
Who the hell do you think would perform those? Not even remotely possible breh.
Some of these posters need to be IP banned, because they ruining the quality of the discussions.
And you believe that is the agenda of the doctors and hospitals who are reporting these deaths? They're part of a nefaroius plot?
Not to mention that this fails to explain how NYC's doctors are magically killing 300% more people than typically die in a given day, or why this enormous growth in death rate is actually LOWER than the number of deaths they've attributed to coronavirus, indicating that they're almost certainly undercounting, not overcounting.
Uno Venova
Your honor, I was merely capping.
No forreal why are conservative trump supporters even on this forum? all they do is fukk up threads
How would You explain the deaths in those other countries like China, Italy, Spain, and others that don't eat fatty foods?
There's a difference between free speech, and being a crab and dragging down the quality of the forum
I've already pointed out the evidence is EXACTLY the opposite. From the data I've seen literally every country that went into lockdown without a major COVID outbreak showed a drop in mortality, not an increase. And countries that went into lockdown during their outbreak fairly quickly showed their mortality rates drop too. So I'm really calling bullshyt here.
Because it's funny to me, you're posting an obvious piece of political propaganda spoken by a Republican politician and disseminated by a known propaganda source, and you think that is the best evidence for your position when the actual document itself is clearly out in public with hundreds of thousands of copies. So why not post the document, why post some local right-wing politician telling us how the document "made him feel" rather than telling us what it actually said? Because what it said was almost certainly innoculous and reasnable and right in line with normal mortality attribution.
A quick lookup gives the appearance that he is likely quite smart and also quite arrogant, and has made most of his reputation by constantly saying that the rest of his field is usually wrong about most eveything. His most famous paper is literally titled, "Why Most Published Research Findings are False". So he does have a pretty large contrarion bias.
Reading up on his study, it carries assumptions so large as to make the conclusions meaningless. I'd love if you could timestamp the video for me and address my following questions.
1. He seems to have based his findings on Santa Clara County, which only has 88 confirmed coronavirus deaths. However, the TOTAL death rate in Santa Clara County in March went up by 20%, indicating hundreds more extra deaths than previously known. In fact, doctors are already noting numerous patient deaths in retrospect which were likely caused by coronavirus in Santa Clara County in February and March before testing was widespread. In his calculations did Dr. John use just the low 88 confirmed deaths or the more likely estimates which will be several times higher?
Overall deaths in Santa Clara County were up 20% in March
2. Medical researchers have previously pointed out that viral disease severity is often a product of the initial infectious dose. People infected by large doses of the virus (such as contact with sick people in hospitals or in especially crowded settings or with long periods of contact, like workplaces, churches, clubs, etc.) often have more severe cases of the disease, while people infected by small doses of the virus (casual contact on the street, or at a distance, or from touching an infected object) often have far more mild cases. It has not yet been proven that this is true for COVID-19, but the high severity of cases among hospital workers and the fact that Spanish Flu, SARS, and MERS all appear to have behaved this way makes it likely.
What is viral load and why are so many health workers getting sick?
How 'viral load' and genetics could explain why young people have died from coronavirus
Influenza Infectious Dose May Explain the High Mortality of the Second and Third Wave of 1918–1919 Influenza Pandemic
So, when Dr. John calculates a death rate for Santa Clara County, does he take into account that social distancing and the lockdown may have significantly reduced the typical infectious dose experienced, and thus reduced the average severity of the disease dramatically compared to without a lockdown?
3. Does Dr. John address the 300% increase in death rates in NYC, totally unprecedented, and explain how that is possible if it is "no worse than a flu"? Does he address the spikes in TOTAL deaths among every European country that has been seriously affected and explain why those spikes never occured in previous flu seasons?
I would love answers to any of those three questions.
Finally, I read one of his early papers and came across this line:
That is just laughably alarmist. He seriously thinks that society is going to break down? Mental heath is going to degrade? We could face war and a meltdown of the social fabric?
He wrote all that on March 17, long before his studies had shown any results. It was part of a long article in which he criticized every model that had come out and every measure that had been taken to fight the disease. So it was quite clear that he already had a motive to tilt his interpretations of the data in a certain way long before he had any data to back up those interpretations.
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