It's been over a year. How do you think this war will end?
- Thread starter acri1
- Start date
In those ten years they lost 15,000 troops.
In the last year they’ve lost an estimated 20-30,000.
These are very different wars.
ADevilYouKhow
Rhyme Reason
but what do you want them to do
I'm honestly not sure what they should doAll I'm saying is the world isn't going to take NATO seriously any more if they let Putin just ignore their warning about using nukes and don't do anything.
Putins revanchist speech around the start of the war made his objectives exceedingly clear: restoration of Imperial Russias borders, whether by force (Ukraine invasion '22) or by politics (Union State with Belarus)
So as of March 2023 Russia has control over:
Eastern Ukraine and Crimea
Northern and Central Georgia
Transnistria in Moldova
And has de facto annexed Belarus
All of these countries are target to be fully annexed into the Russian Federation at this point. Dont believe that "Putin wants the Donbass" shyt, he wants UKRAINE. He made clear that historically Ukraine is just a mash up of Russian and Polish territory.
They will definitely move on these other countries/regions unless stopped:
Kazakhstan - the whole North and several provinces are majority ethnic Russians and there are many Kazakhs who would sell out for the Russians. They need to watch themselves cause they dont have the West backing them like Ukraine. Theres 9 million ethnic Russians in Ukraine and 3.5 million in Kazakh, theyre definitely going there. They also used military force there just last year so they know the layout of the land and what the Kazakh security forces operate like.
Japan: Im 100 percent sure the Russians will try to militarize the Kuril/Northern territory islands now to be able to have a knockout 1st strike capability against any US forces in the region that might operate in the Russian Far East in a war against Moscow. They might even claim several new islands that Japan just found in that area.
Kaliningrad: See my reasons above for why Kaliningrad will be even more militarized than before. The country in Europe with the largest Russian population is Germany. If the Russians feel war with NATO is inevitable they will strike at Berlin first and use that as an excuse, that Germany was starting a second Russophobic holocaust and they needed to be taken out. Complete and utter bullshyt but nuclear missiles from Kaliningrad can destroy most of Central Europe within 5 to 10 minutes and US/NATO forces along with it. Thats why Germany is acting so scary, it would actually be easier for the Russians to nuke Berlin with their medium range missiles than they could Warsaw, unless they station them in Minsk (as they're threatening to do)
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So how do you think it'll play out then?
Is Putin going to succeed at his goal, or is there someone able/willing to prevent it? Seems like Ukraine can hold the line but that's about it.
Nobody wants WWIII, but at this point it's very hard to see Ukraine winning this on their own no matter how many weapons are sent.
Hes not gonna "win" in Ukraine by any means but he also isnt gonna LOSE lose and have Russia be split apart into smaller republics like people on here have suggested. The 1991 Soviet collapse ready played out that way. Most Russians would literally rather die on their feet than go back to the 1990s days. Thats why Putin has so much clout over there even after fukking up this invasion. He took those people out of literal hell. Instead of the drug infested, child prostitution ridden chaos and crime infestation murderville that Moscow was in the 90s, he nationalized the crime and started working with the Russian mobs to put in order. Dude is a murderous dictator but hes a much more fascinating character to study than someone as banal as Hitler. Hes almost like a Thanos type of evil, where if you listen to him long enough youd be like
he spittin right now, compared to the random ramblings of Fascists like Mussolini. Even this crazy ass invasion is based on a rational, historical fear of Russia being surrounded by enemies.The problem is, the Russians expand to conquer their enemies, but then make NEW enemies along the way. Its a never ending cycle, they will always be a threat to world peace unless they go through a social re education and restructuring like Germany did after the war.
The best we could hope for is Ukraine fighting like a damn dog and taking out another 100,000 to 300,000 soldiers and crippling the Russian army for the next 10-15 years. But sadly with how determined they are I dont think the prospects are good on the Russians just going home like that. Theyll raze Ukraine to the ground rather than take the L. Theyll conscript all the fighting age men. They just raised the cap from 27 to 30 and are gonna add 400,000 more soldiers. They wanna buy drones and more from China in exchange for oil.
If they link up with China and the Chinese do a sort of Lend-Lease agreement with them for weapons (and more importantly AMMUNITION) then well have a World War cause theyll have the means PLUS the intention. Right now they have the intentions but sanctions are biting. They arent doing enough tho.
I called this back in 2012 with Mitt Romney and people thought both of us were fukking insane
now look
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It will end with the arrest of Putin 
Json
Superstar
I feel like Russia won’t acknowledge a real defeat.
They know Ukraine isn’t after Moscow so the war stops at their border. Russia is just going to attack some smaller country and send its troops there as if it defeated the Ukrainians without admitting a defeat.
They know Ukraine isn’t after Moscow so the war stops at their border. Russia is just going to attack some smaller country and send its troops there as if it defeated the Ukrainians without admitting a defeat.
I can’t see a scenario where Russia gives up the territory it’s annexed… and I don’t see Ukraine dropping the issue.
We should get comfortable with this conflict.
We should get comfortable with this conflict.
Json
Superstar
I mean it doesn’t matter where the line ends up. Ukraine will never trust Russia again. That’s the part that worries me.
And with Putin still at the head, essentially having a NATO border will force a confrontation
Amo Husserl
Superstar
War might destabilize the region, that's better for Russia winning long-term.
Opens Eastern Europe to BRICS countries to increase their economic power, Russia and China chiefly.
Ukraine was the weakest corridor into the region, the history with Russia made it the best choice for an attack.
Ukraine folds, China is going after Taiwan and doing in Asia what Russia may do in Eastern Europe.
Eastern Europe and Asia are developing their economies, regions ripe for influence.
China takes Taiwan, South Korea is next. Russia goes west into Europe, China goes east across the Pacific.
US can't fight that war on both fronts. Winning the war the only way to keep them in check for now.
Opens Eastern Europe to BRICS countries to increase their economic power, Russia and China chiefly.
Ukraine was the weakest corridor into the region, the history with Russia made it the best choice for an attack.
Ukraine folds, China is going after Taiwan and doing in Asia what Russia may do in Eastern Europe.
Eastern Europe and Asia are developing their economies, regions ripe for influence.
China takes Taiwan, South Korea is next. Russia goes west into Europe, China goes east across the Pacific.
US can't fight that war on both fronts. Winning the war the only way to keep them in check for now.
You sure?