1/31
@BenjaminNorton
Iran doesn't have nukes, but does have the geopolitical equivalent of the nuclear option:
If the US/Israel attempt a war, Iran could close the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most important chokepoint. Oil prices would likely double to $150+, grinding the global economy to a halt.
Excerpt from the FT: Subscribe to read
2/31
@KuittinenPetri
Why are you assuming that Iran would close the strait of Hormuz? That would easily pile up a lot of countries against Iran.
Besides if Israel will do a major strike against Iran, it is unlikely to do it alone, but rather it will be a coalition of Israel + its allies against Iran.
If attack occurs, Israel will do with the support of USA (at minimum intel + weapons), plus perhaps also using the airfields and airspace of Arab nations friendly towards Israel in the region.
Gulf states have stated that they want to remain neutral in this conflict, but will they? USA has military bases in Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Oman and Kuwait. They could be used, as USA + Israel does indeed have a lot of coercive power towards those countries. You can also count Jordan and Azerbaijan as allies of Israel. So Iran has a lot of directions to worry where the attack could come.
Read more in this thread I wrote today:
3/31
@Pooyan_Fakhraei
If Iran do this, China would feel it first, not US. I don't think Iran wants to upset Chinese
4/31
@KungFuSV
… and how long do you think Iran can actually keep that Strait closed, as it’s annihilation will be imminent and swift?
5/31
@baderalmunayes
Ben, if Iran closes Strait of Hormuz, crude oil prices could increase to $200 easy, because it already reached over $120 in peace times in 2006. Also, if Yemen closes at the same time Strait of Bab Almandab it will a disaster for world economy.
6/31
@StubbornFacts
Just look at what the US & friends did not manage to stop in the Red Sea. Unlikely they could keep the Strait of Hormuz open, quite apart from the likely damage to oil installations.
[Quoted tweet]
‘Mighty’ US
-European militaries keep quiet about failing to prevent 
Yemen’s anti-genocide-in-Gaza blockade! The volume of sea borne traffic via the Suez Canal was 
76% y/y in the week to 11 Sep; 80% y/y via Bab el-Mandeb strait. Instead, ship volume was 
49% via the Cape.
7/31
@ANTIVICTORIA
Oil prices might rise is not exactly the political insight of the century.
8/31
@BraJabuNzi
How would you know that Iran has no nukes?
9/31
@CamiloGuezRodri
Since you are in China, you could add some context on how that nuclear option would impact on China, and explore the likely scenarios of China looking for a solution to Iran using its nuclear option.
10/31
@StephenEarleTh1
But China needs an open Strait, does it not?
11/31
@linzhutou404
150？Fed is gonna cry
12/31
@SitiRuhanaRuha1
It will be very tough and difficult for everyone around the world.
13/31
@doncalli
I think the "operational" phrase is "doesn't have nukes that we know of"
14/31
@salafiflex2005
It would hit up to $500 In a long war of attrition
15/31
@arty_burton
It is much, much simpler than that.
Iran may not have nukes, but its acknowledged allies China and Russia do!
16/31
@archfey_
Mmm. So, not the Hail Mary! Football throw we're familiar with in the states, but instead, the unexpected Archangel Michael option. I like it. Would love to see the economy burn and broil.
17/31
@lukc007
The other thing is that Russia and China won't allow someone to destroy Iran.
18/31
@pincogeopol
This would certainly force the west's hand, but many of them are reactionary, unpredictable. Will they call for aggression towards Iran or call for peace?
19/31
@RassBariaw
20/31
@cosmicash_dust
Can't even imagine death,disease and starvation globally no matter where the war happens
21/31
@muchosarms
Be good for Texas, however!
22/31
@aldea_cris
Iran have lots of money and nuke is very cheap you dont need to manufactured a bomb to own it. Just buy it.
23/31
@Razo2
They have sufficient conventional capacity destroy critical Israel infrastructure.
24/31
@blmcguire1
There is no way that you could know if Iran has nukes or not. Zero integrity journalism.
25/31
@Yodyood
The real question is that --
Is US insane enough to give a green light for Israel to attack Iran oil facilities?
26/31
@Yophiel
So let’s just give Iran whatever it wants and then we will have world peace. It would have worked with the Nazis too, right?
27/31
@gratiotface
Do you think Iran will deploy an EMP weapon if Israel nukes?
28/31
@kelleyryberg1
They've tried before and never managed to *seal off* the flow of oil but still caused substantial reductions. The US sends in a carrier battle group to patrol the Strait and ends up being a target. It's happened time and time again.
We're not getting in to a protracted conflict.
29/31
@lxve_mo78805
They have nukes
30/31
@Hoja_Nasreddin
Benny, Pakistan has already told Iran that it can borrow some of their nukes to strike Israel.
31/31
@NYCPrimeTime41
But Russia would make out like a bandit
To post tweets in this format, more info here: https://www.thecoli.com/threads/tips-and-tricks-for-posting-the-coli-megathread.984734/post-52211196
@BenjaminNorton
Iran doesn't have nukes, but does have the geopolitical equivalent of the nuclear option:
If the US/Israel attempt a war, Iran could close the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most important chokepoint. Oil prices would likely double to $150+, grinding the global economy to a halt.
Excerpt from the FT: Subscribe to read
2/31
@KuittinenPetri
Why are you assuming that Iran would close the strait of Hormuz? That would easily pile up a lot of countries against Iran.
Besides if Israel will do a major strike against Iran, it is unlikely to do it alone, but rather it will be a coalition of Israel + its allies against Iran.
If attack occurs, Israel will do with the support of USA (at minimum intel + weapons), plus perhaps also using the airfields and airspace of Arab nations friendly towards Israel in the region.
Gulf states have stated that they want to remain neutral in this conflict, but will they? USA has military bases in Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Oman and Kuwait. They could be used, as USA + Israel does indeed have a lot of coercive power towards those countries. You can also count Jordan and Azerbaijan as allies of Israel. So Iran has a lot of directions to worry where the attack could come.
Read more in this thread I wrote today:
3/31
@Pooyan_Fakhraei
If Iran do this, China would feel it first, not US. I don't think Iran wants to upset Chinese
4/31
@KungFuSV
… and how long do you think Iran can actually keep that Strait closed, as it’s annihilation will be imminent and swift?
5/31
@baderalmunayes
Ben, if Iran closes Strait of Hormuz, crude oil prices could increase to $200 easy, because it already reached over $120 in peace times in 2006. Also, if Yemen closes at the same time Strait of Bab Almandab it will a disaster for world economy.
6/31
@StubbornFacts
Just look at what the US & friends did not manage to stop in the Red Sea. Unlikely they could keep the Strait of Hormuz open, quite apart from the likely damage to oil installations.
[Quoted tweet]
‘Mighty’ US
-European militaries keep quiet about failing to prevent Yemen’s anti-genocide-in-Gaza blockade! The volume of sea borne traffic via the Suez Canal was 76% y/y in the week to 11 Sep; 80% y/y via Bab el-Mandeb strait. Instead, ship volume was 49% via the Cape.7/31
@ANTIVICTORIA
Oil prices might rise is not exactly the political insight of the century.
8/31
@BraJabuNzi
How would you know that Iran has no nukes?
9/31
@CamiloGuezRodri
Since you are in China, you could add some context on how that nuclear option would impact on China, and explore the likely scenarios of China looking for a solution to Iran using its nuclear option.
10/31
@StephenEarleTh1
But China needs an open Strait, does it not?
11/31
@linzhutou404
150？Fed is gonna cry
12/31
@SitiRuhanaRuha1
It will be very tough and difficult for everyone around the world.13/31
@doncalli
I think the "operational" phrase is "doesn't have nukes that we know of"
14/31
@salafiflex2005
It would hit up to $500 In a long war of attrition
15/31
@arty_burton
It is much, much simpler than that.
Iran may not have nukes, but its acknowledged allies China and Russia do!
16/31
@archfey_
Mmm. So, not the Hail Mary! Football throw we're familiar with in the states, but instead, the unexpected Archangel Michael option. I like it. Would love to see the economy burn and broil.
17/31
@lukc007
The other thing is that Russia and China won't allow someone to destroy Iran.
18/31
@pincogeopol
This would certainly force the west's hand, but many of them are reactionary, unpredictable. Will they call for aggression towards Iran or call for peace?
19/31
@RassBariaw
20/31
@cosmicash_dust
Can't even imagine death,disease and starvation globally no matter where the war happens
21/31
@muchosarms
Be good for Texas, however!
22/31
@aldea_cris
Iran have lots of money and nuke is very cheap you dont need to manufactured a bomb to own it. Just buy it.
23/31
@Razo2
They have sufficient conventional capacity destroy critical Israel infrastructure.
24/31
@blmcguire1
There is no way that you could know if Iran has nukes or not. Zero integrity journalism.
25/31
@Yodyood
The real question is that --
Is US insane enough to give a green light for Israel to attack Iran oil facilities?
26/31
@Yophiel
So let’s just give Iran whatever it wants and then we will have world peace. It would have worked with the Nazis too, right?
27/31
@gratiotface
Do you think Iran will deploy an EMP weapon if Israel nukes?
28/31
@kelleyryberg1
They've tried before and never managed to *seal off* the flow of oil but still caused substantial reductions. The US sends in a carrier battle group to patrol the Strait and ends up being a target. It's happened time and time again.
We're not getting in to a protracted conflict.
29/31
@lxve_mo78805
They have nukes
30/31
@Hoja_Nasreddin
Benny, Pakistan has already told Iran that it can borrow some of their nukes to strike Israel.
31/31
@NYCPrimeTime41
But Russia would make out like a bandit
To post tweets in this format, more info here: https://www.thecoli.com/threads/tips-and-tricks-for-posting-the-coli-megathread.984734/post-52211196
