Introduction
US foreign policy is undergoing a shift in priorities, and global power dynamics are shifting with it. After a period of prolonged preoccupation with the Middle East, the U.S. has signaled a declining interest in the region. Instead, China (and more broadly the Asia-Pacific region) has emerged as the new focus. Both China and the Middle East recognize this shift. Beijing is gearing up to confront what it views as the key threat to its ascent on the international stage while the Middle East is
bewildered and “running for cover.” This essay analyzes the global implications of the US priority shift and discusses the formal and structural changes representing the shift in focus to China; the signaling of disinterest and disengagement in the Middle East; the consequential and resultant shifts in regional power dynamics; and how the US policy should respond.
The Shift to China
Unlike in their domestic policies, Presidents Biden and Trump bear similarities in foreign policy. Trump was quick to position China at the center of his foreign policy agenda. Under his tenure, the U.S. levied additional tariffs on Chinese goods and saw “at least 210 public actions related to China that spanned at least 10 departments” in a
whole-of-government approach (WGA). Biden retained Trump’s tough-on-China strategy and signaled a
continuity in the focus on the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). While it was former President Barak Obama who
first stated his intent to pivot to Asia, the shift should be attributed mostly to Trump first, and now Biden.
Despite the similarity in direction, there are differences between the Trump and Biden strategies toward China. Critically, whereas the Trump administration made China the central focus of US foreign policy, the Biden administration formally shifted US foreign policy to China and away from the Middle East.
National security adviser Jake Sullivan has restructured the National Security staff in the Middle East and Asia directorates — downsizing the team devoted to the Middle East and bulking up the unit that coordinates US policy toward the vast region of the world stretching from the Indian Ocean to the Pacific… The changes essentially flip the structure of the Obama-era NSC, where the Middle East directorate was much bigger than it is now and the Asia portfolio was managed by a handful of more junior staffers..
The National Security Council now operates under the pretense that China and Russia present the primary challenges to the US, the West, and the liberal international order and are
America’s biggest security challenge going forward.
Signaling Disengagement with the Middle East
On the hand, Middle East policy has morphed into passive observance. Perhaps the most compelling signal regarding the US disengagement with the Middle East was the inconsistency in the policy toward the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA; Iran Nuclear Deal) US foreign policy has engaged in alarming about turns, from championing the JCPOA, to walking away from it, to signaling renewed interest. The world used to believe that US foreign policy trajectory relies more on a set of overarching values and institutional precedents and not solely on the whims of the White House. The Middle East no longer values this inference. The hasty withdrawal of the US troops from Afghanistan and the continued absence of a plan for the role the US will play in the region has also startled the leaders in the Middle East. They have interpreted it not only as a lack of interest in anything other than China (and now Russia), but also as an explicit disengagement and even disconnection from everything that is not China (and now Russia).
As the last US plane departed Kabul in 2021, Secretary of State Antony Blinken
remarked, “A new chapter of America’s engagement with Afghanistan has begun… the military mission is over, a new, diplomatic mission has begun.” Almost two years later, the US Embassy in Kabul remains unoccupied. For leaders in the Middle East, this appears less about a new chapter and more about closing the book. The Middle East has now decided move on as well.
The Consequences
As a result of American regional disengagement, many regional powers in both the Middle East and the broader Arab World find themselves with more license to chart a new direction. Two shifts have emerged as the most salient from an American perspective: the normalization of Iran and Syria. The US reversals on the Iran nuclear deal dented the confidence of the ‘anti-Iran’ coalition that the U.S. had worked to build. Though countries like Saudi Arabia and Israel did not need the US to tell them to dislike Iran, others, like “the United Arab Emirates, for instance, [are] taking steps to de-escalate [their] own tensions with Tehran, after years of striking a harsher tone.” In the post-American Middle East, the UAE is increasing its efforts to be seen as a regional power, especially among the Gulf Countries. Part of this includes a far-reaching, rapprochement-styled foreign policy that has made it one of the first major, non-allied countries to normalize relations with both Iran and Syria following the U.S.’s disengagement.
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How U.S. Policy Should Respond
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Washington must realize that it is difficult to rank regions of the world in terms of their value to the US Headlines in magazines lamenting the irrelevance of the Middle East are not only trite but grossly misleading. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan wrote in Foreign Affairs that diplomacy in the Middle East
can succeed where America’s past military interventions have failed. Sullivan advised that America ought to use regional diplomacy in place of military involvement to advance carefully selected interests.
What Sullivan does not realize is that regional diplomacy has begun to move on without the US. So far, the US. has only signaled its disinterest and desire to disengage. Now, the US must focus on catching up in its involvement. The US gave up the Middle East in a self-proclaimed desire to commit to China. In doing so, however, has allowed China and the Middle East to commit to each other. As the US searches for growing Chinese power to counter, it need not look further than the place it is leaving.