Projected W-L records, standings for every NBA team
How might a wide-open 2019-20 NBA regular season play out?
With free agency largely wrapped up and most rosters nearing completion, it's time to look ahead to the upcoming NBA campaign with the help of our projections based on ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM). This is our fourth season using RPM for projections, which have correctly picked teams' preseason lines 57.5% of the time in that span.
While the beauty of sports is the impossibility of predicting everything that will unfold, RPM projections have offered a better starting point for expectations about the season to come. So, after answering a few key questions about them, let's take a look at what RPM forecasts for 2019-20.
How do the projections work?
Our RPM projections utilize the multiyear, predictive version of RPM as a starting point. They're adjusted for typical player aging and -- new this season -- then regressed toward the player's projected offensive rating and defensive rating from my SCHOENE projection system, based solely on box score stats. (For players without RPM projections, including rookies, the SCHOENE ratings are used instead.)
Games played are projected based on time missed over the previous three seasons. I then make a subjective guess at minutes distributions for each team. Multiplying those minutes by players' offensive and defensive ratings yields team ratings that translate into expected wins. I used those projections to simulate the season 1,000 times and record the average number of wins as well as how often each team made the playoffs.
Why are these projections so compact?
Amazingly, only three teams are projected for more than 50 wins this season. In part, this is a product of the conservative nature of projections. While we know that more than three teams will win 50-plus games, we don't know for sure beforehand which teams will do so.
That said, the parity the RPM-based model forecasts appears unique to this season. Using the exact same method with 2018-19 projections yielded six teams with projections of 50-plus wins and a seventh whose projection rounded up to 50.
What makes this season so wide open?
Besides the absence of a single dominant team with the Golden State Warriors losing Kevin Durant, this season is also unique because of the level of roster turnover this summer. I project just 62% of minutes leaguewide to be played by returning players, as compared to 76% in 2018-19. That's important because of the tweak to the projections I made last season to treat players who change teams differently than those who remain with the same team.
Regressing projections toward the player's SCHOENE projections rather than league average improved out-of-sample projection and no longer penalizes stars quite so harshly for changing teams. Still, it's clear that even stars do pay an RPM price for changing teams.
Within the sample I used for testing (back through 2012-13), 13 players who posted an RPM of 5.0 or better changed teams. On average, their RPM declined from +6.0 to +3.3. By comparison, players with an RPM of 5.0 or better who stay with the same team see a much smaller drop-off from an average of +6.4 to +4.8. This effect is particularly relevant for the Brooklyn Nets, LA Clippers and Los Angeles Lakers, all of whom added players whose projections would rank among the NBA's top 15 if not for the adjustment.
Given that, it's no surprise the top three teams in the projections all had a relatively high degree of continuity this offseason and return three of last season's top five players in RPM.
With that noted, let's get to the projections, starting with the Western Conference.
Western Conference
1. Houston Rockets
Average wins: 53.7
Playoffs: 99%
Despite swapping Chris Paul for Russell Westbrook in a blockbuster deal, the Rockets still have a high degree of carryover from the team that won 53 games last season. I project more than 80% of their minutes to be played by returning players, the league's fifth-highest mark. Add in Westbrook's track record of playing more minutes than Paul and Houston looks likely to excel again during the regular season.
2. Denver Nuggets
Average wins: 53.3
Playoffs: 99%
The Nuggets won 54 games last season to claim the second seed but did so with the point differential typical of a 51-win team, so this projection does reflect some improvement from a young roster that returns almost entirely intact. Denver's 88% of minutes projected to be played by returning players is the NBA's highest.
3. Los Angeles Lakers
Average wins: 47.9
Playoffs: 90%
It's important to remember here that RPM is trying to project the regular season, not the playoffs. The Lakers figure to be better during the playoffs, when they can ramp up the minutes of stars LeBron James and newcomer Anthony Davis, both projected to be among the league's top 10 players. New coach Frank Vogel also might be able to cut ineffective players out of the rotation.
4. LA Clippers
Average wins: 47.8
Playoffs: 87%
As with the Lakers, the Clippers should be stronger in the postseason, perhaps even more so because of load management for newcomer Kawhi Leonard -- who is projected for 62 games and 34 minutes per game during the regular season, after playing 60 games during the 2018-19 campaign.
5. Utah Jazz
Average wins: 46.8
Playoffs: 86%
This time a year ago, the Jazz ranked second in RPM projections, which proved accurate in terms of their point differential (+5.2, second best in the West) but not their record (50-32, fifth). Despite adding Mike Conley and Bojan Bogdanovic in a critically acclaimed offseason, Utah's projection has dropped by virtue of the hit the team's depth took. Additionally, Conley is projected to play only 64 games, and an extended absence would leave the Jazz short-handed at point guard.
6. Golden State Warriors
Average wins: 46.4
Playoffs: 84%
Since the RPM projections debuted the season after the Warriors' first title, Golden State has never before been projected for fewer than 60 wins. Welcome to a new era, at least for this season, with Durant gone and Klay Thompson projected for only 21 games during the regular season.
7. Dallas Mavericks
Average wins: 44.0
Playoffs: 70%
Despite not getting their top targets in free agency, the Mavericks are still forecast for a leap forward in Luka Doncic's second season, with Kristaps Porzingis joining him in the lineup. In particular, Dallas stands out because of depth. Of the 14 players projected to play in 2019-20, only veteran guard Courtney Lee projects worse than a minus-1.4 RPM.
8. Portland Trail Blazers
Average wins: 40.2
Playoffs: 35%
A modest RPM projection is nothing new for the Blazers, who were pegged for 41.7 wins last season before actually winning 53 en route to the conference finals. Portland coach Terry Stotts has consistently shown the ability to get young players to exceed their projections, and second-year guard Anfernee Simons could be next in that lineage.
9. Sacramento Kings
Average wins: 39.9
Playoffs: 34%
After the Kings won 39 games to finish ninth in the West last season, RPM suggests they could be even more competitive with improved depth via free agency. Sacramento hasn't reached 40 wins since 2005-06.
10. Minnesota Timberwolves
Average wins: 39.5
Playoffs: 31%
Having made additions around the edges this summer, the Timberwolves might be a bit underrated because of the return of forward Robert Covington, who missed the final 45 games of last season because of a bone bruise in his right knee. During the 22 games Covington played with Minnesota after the Jimmy Butler trade, the team went 12-10.
11. San Antonio Spurs
Average wins: 38.6
Playoffs: 25%
RPM projections don't account for coaching, and the Spurs have beaten their projections by at least six wins in three of the past four seasons. So although San Antonio lost RPM standout Davis Bertans in the ill-fated pursuit of Marcus Morris, I'd bet on Gregg Popovich finding a new winning combination.
12. New Orleans Pelicans
Average wins: 38.5
Playoffs: 24%
Projections for rookies are conservative, so No. 1 overall pick Zion Williamson is projected as just slightly better than league average in his first season. If he can beat that forecast, the Pelicans could be in the mix for the playoffs this season.
13. Phoenix Suns
Average wins: 38.0
Playoffs: 22%
Having won only 19 games last season, the Suns are forecast for the biggest improvement in the league this season. Squint hard and Phoenix had the makings of a competitive team last season, outscoring opponents by 0.5 points per 100 possessions in the 180 minutes Deandre Ayton, Devin Booker, Mikal Bridges, and Kelly Oubre Jr. played together, according to NBA Advanced Stats. Add reliable veterans Ricky Rubio and Dario Saric to that group and the Suns could leap out of the West cellar.
14. Oklahoma City Thunder
Average wins: 36.6
Playoffs: 13%
In the East, the Thunder could be a playoff contender with a 37-win projection after losing Westbrook and Paul George. In the West, that's good for only 14th place in an incredibly deep conference.
15. Memphis Grizzlies
Average wins: 31.9
Playoffs: 2%
Someone has to lose games in the West, and that's most likely to be the Grizzlies after dealing stalwarts Conley and Marc Gasol in the past seven months. Still, Memphis could be competitive behind a solid frontcourt of Jaren Jackson Jr. and Jonas Valanciunas.
Damn...Looks like the Lakers may be needing to find another center...is this an old injury or something that just occured?
