:tms_6:
Hurricane Irma: now a tropical storm, moving into Georgia today
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We were due. Time to hold this L like a champI had a feeling we were gonna get Hurricane after Houston
It's actually a lot of Rakeems down here. I think a lot of people up north be surprised to see a lot of us bare "black" names. My name is hood af . Especially my middle name lol.My name actually is Rakeem though
In hindsight I shouldn't have said my real name
NeggedThank god I live in Canada.
Kairi Irving
Here Comes A New Challenger
I must be the most 
person there is since I want the hurricane to hit my job so I won't have to work on Sunday. the hurricane but hope it strikes directly at the job.
person there is since I want the hurricane to hit my job so I won't have to work on Sunday. the hurricane but hope it strikes directly at the job.I'm thinking about riding a bike up to Orlando to my dad's house 
It's gonna be 20 hours but I'm not trying to stay in a certain death trap in Miami
It's gonna be 20 hours but I'm not trying to stay in a certain death trap in Miami
Broke Wave
The GOAT
Man you guys cant be serious with this shyt
20 hours? you riding a Huffy, breh?I'm thinking about riding a bike up to Orlando to my dad's house
Konnan
Undisputed Jack in the Box Parking Lot Champion
Pretty much every detail you could want want to know about Irma so far
Credit: AccuWeather.com Premium: Reed Timmer Outlook Promo
Credit: AccuWeather.com Premium: Reed Timmer Outlook Promo
Hurricane Irma has just been upgraded to CATEGORY 4 by the National Hurricane Center as of 5:00 p.m. AST based on a recent reconnaissance flight measuring 121-knot flight-level winds in the northeast eye wall. The maximum sustained winds are estimated at 130 mph with a minimum pressure still at 944 mb. Some additional strengthening is anticipated as powerful Hurricane Irma approaches the northern Lesser Antilles, where catastrophic impacts are possible Tuesday into early Wednesday especially for those islands hit by the eye wall. Hurricane warnings are in effect for these island including Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, Saba, St. Eustatius, Sint Maarten, Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy. A hurricane watch has been hoisted for Puerto Rico and the U.S./British Virgin islands. Check out the impressive GOES-16 satellite imagery of Hurricane Irma with an impressive central dense overcast and all kinds of overshooting tops with the convection around the eye. There is some high cirrus covering the eye just as the sun is setting on Hurricane Irma likely due to the very intense convection or ongoing eye wall replacement cycles.
Figure 1. GOES-16 satellite imagery of Hurricane Irma Monday late afternoon courtesy of @WxByte on Twitter
Forecast discussion:
Irma continues on the rather unusual west-southwesterly track at around 14 mph but is expected to shift to the west-northwest over the next day or so. The longer Irma continues on this southwesterly motion, the more likely that Puerto Rico and the U.S./British Virgin Islands will sustain catastrophic impacts as well. The latest official forecast track from the National Hurricane Center per the 5 p.m. advisory (Fig. 2) has been adjusted slightly to the south since yesterday, with a powerful Category 4 Hurricane Irma moving right over the northern Leeward Islands Tuesday into early Wednesday then heading dangerously close to Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands Wednesday afternoon/overnight. Irma is currently moving along the southern side of a large Bermuda high and will slowly turn west-northwest as it moves around the southwestern side of the massive anticyclone.
Figure 2. Official NHC forecast track per 5 pm advisory #22 for Hurricane Irma
I've included below in Figure 3 the general steering factors that will influence the track of Hurricane Irma over the next week or so, the evolution of which will determine where, when and how bad the impacts from Irma will be in the southeastern United States next weekend through early next week. Most of previous model forecasts in recent days showed a much more abrupt turn to the north for Hurricane Irma ahead of an East Coast trough forecast to amplify through late week, with a possible land fall from North Carolina to as far north as New England. The European model has maintained a more southerly track compared with the GFS, but since last night, both models are now showing a much weaker eastern U.S. trough by late week that seems to "shear out" between the Bermuda high (Ridge #1 in Fig. 3, below) and an more strongly amplifying ridge over the central U.S. Interestingly, the amplification of this ridge is related to the evolution of former Typhoon Sanvu which has transitioned into a monster extratropical cyclone in the North Pacific. Sanvu was once an expansive typhoon east of Japan in late August, with the last advisory issued for Tropical Storm Sanvu on Sept. 2. If Typhoon Sanvu never had existed, we very likely would be dealing with a much different forecast scenario for Hurricane Irma. The interaction of Pacific typhoons with the polar front jet stream are one of many factors that drive teleconnections between the North Atlantic and North Pacific climate systems.
Figure 3. Steering factors for Hurricane Irma; 12z Monday GFS forecast 300-850 mb steering flow for 18z Thursday.
This large amplifying ridge over the central U.S. (Ridge #2, Fig. 3, above) that will "squeeze" the weaker East Coast trough to the west of a stout Bermuda high is evident in the GFS forecast steering flow on Thursday afternoon, as a likely Category 4 maybe even Category 5 Hurricane Irma will be churning over the very warm water just north of Hispaniola. At this time, it may look like this massive East Coast trough would undoubtedly pick up Hurricane Irma and force a path out to sea away from the U.S. However, as this trough narrows shears out thereafter, Hurricane Irma follows the southwest extension of the anticyclone (via Ridge #1) to the south of the trough instead of being shifted north. The relative deamplification of Trough #1 can be seen in Figure 4, below, the same GFS forecast field but for early Saturday, when Hurricane Irma will likely be hammering north-central Cuba. If Hurricane Irma takes a track right over the heart of Cuba, then we could be dealing with a much weaker storm by the time it reaches the U.S. Most models right now keep the center of powerful Hurricane Irma just off the north shore of Cuba, but this could still change dramatically between now and then along with the evolution of these steering factors.
Figure 4. Same GFS forecast as above, but for early Saturday morning
After Ridge #2 reaches its peak amplitude and begins to weaken, Hurricane Irma is forecast to make a sharp turn to the north from the north coast of Cuba as Trough #1 finally acquires sufficient influence on the steering flow, with at least the GFS showing substantial impacts across the entire Florida Peninsula and especially South Florida and the Florida east coast. Figure 5 shows the evolution of the steering factors for Irma by late Sunday night/early Monday morning, with Hurricane Irma moving north to north-northeast along the east-central coast of Florida. This GFS scenario for Hurricane Irma seems like hybrid between Hurricane Matthew last year and Hurricane Charlie in 2004.
Figure 5. Same GFS forecast as above, but for early Monday morning.
Please realize that the above forecast discussion of the steering factors for Irma are based on one model solution. The latest European model at the same initialization time shows a similar evolution of Hurricane Irma but a very slightly earlier turn to the north, just missing Florida and making landfall in North Carolina. As Accuweather Chief Meteorologist Bernie Rayno says, we'll be riding the "windshield wiper effect" with the computer model forecast tracks over the next several days leading up to potential landfall of Hurricane Irma in the Southeast U.S., as they shift north and south with each run. The uncertainties regarding the forecast track of Irma will alleviate as the evolution of the above steering features becomes increasingly apparent with each day this week. In closing, I have included below in Figure 6 a new 73 member ensemble product from Accuweather, which includes the forecast positions of Hurricane Irma clustered around the Florida Peninsula on late Sunday night/early Monday morning based on ECMWF (20 members), GEFS (20 members) and weighted GFS. However, the most recent available run of this ensemble product is from 06z last night, and it does appear there has been a slight shift to the east of this cluster during today's runs -- the windshield wiper effect continues.
Figure 6. 06z Monday 73-member ensemble product from Accuweather forecast for 06z next Monday
The reality here is that anyone from Florida through North Carolina could very easily experience a landfall from a powerful hurricane from late next weekend through early next week, so you might as well start base preparations and have a safety plan that can be mobilized easily when the time comes. I'll keep you updated the best I can as the forecast evolves this week. I plan on heading to Florida on Wednesday to start coverage ahead of Hurricane Irma for Accuweather, and I plan to deploy the probe once again for measurement of wind speed and direction as well as the pressure fall inside the eye wall/eye of Hurricane Irma. More updates to come tomorrow.
ManBearPig
half man half bearpig
Stay safe
Did you just assume the hurricanes gender? Be called Irma and have a dikk, brehettes.fukk my family in Cuba finna feel the hurricanes whole dikk
Considering that stores are running out of water, propane, and other supplies, you better tell your peoples to start talking about it just in case.I can tell you nobody I know in south florida is talking about this shyt
Im hoping it turns up. Gulf don't need anymore bullshyt
Take it from someone in Houston. Get your ass to the North or West Coast. Even if you don't get directly hit, you gonna be stuck for ALONG time.
