Greece financial crisis | Latest : Deal reached with even tougher conditions for Greece.

The Fukin Prophecy

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Germany can't and won't do shyt...

The ball is entirely in Greeces hands right now...

They have two choices accept a deal with the ECB or go back to the drachma...Both are terrible options and there is no third...Personally I would be choosing go back to the drachma because they simply cannot pay off that debt...No sense in making your people suffer through 50 years of harsh austerity trying to pay that mess off...

fukk the bankers, fukk the EU...

Right it off and start fresh...
 

King Kreole

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Germany can't and won't do shyt...

The ball is entirely in Greeces hands right now...

They have two choices accept a deal with the ECB or go back to the drachma...Both are terrible options and there is no third...Personally I would be choosing go back to the drachma because they simply cannot pay off that debt...No sense in making your people suffer through 50 years of harsh austerity trying to pay that mess off...

fukk the bankers, fukk the EU...

Right it off and start fresh...
I would go back to the drachma too, but problem is they can't start fresh. They have a bunch of immediate needs that need to be met (pensioners, children, young people, unemployment, etc). Greece is about to turn into a humanitarian crisis. Going back to the drachma allows them more freedom to play around with their currency, devalue it and make exports more attractive, but it's gonna fukk their imports, and Greece is a country that relies on imports, especially for fuel. They don't even really have any big exports. They're not self-sustaining. They're starting from ground zero, and don't really have the tools to make it out. They're gonna need a huge influx of money to just stay above water, and right now no one in the entire world is gonna lend Greece any money after how they've acted throughout this whole ordeal.
 

mbewane

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I would go back to the drachma too, but problem is they can't start fresh. They have a bunch of immediate needs that need to be met (pensioners, children, young people, unemployment, etc). Greece is about to turn into a humanitarian crisis. Going back to the drachma allows them more freedom to play around with their currency, devalue it and make exports more attractive, but it's gonna fukk their imports, and Greece is a country that relies on imports, especially for fuel. They don't even really have any big exports. They're not self-sustaining. They're starting from ground zero, and don't really have the tools to make it out. They're gonna need a huge influx of money to just stay above water, and right now no one in the entire world is gonna lend Greece any money after how they've acted throughout this whole ordeal.

Actually, a funny and ironic possible twist is that Greece could apply for help on basis of a humanitarian crisis...from the EU. That would probably come in form of direct aid to populations. It's a stretch, but it's not impossible.

And the word is out that Greece has done almost everything it could at this point. Even the IMF (yes, that IMF) has stated that Greece's debt is not sustainable and that the only way out of the crisis is to restructure it. Many economists are saying the same thing. As any debt crisis, Greece has been borrowing to repay the interests, not the debt itself : once you go that route there's hardly any way out. That's why 3/4 of the money "lended to Greece" never actually reached Greece : it went straight to the banks and the IMF. Over the past 5 years, Grece has been more frugal than any other EU country.

There is a LOT of misinformation about the Greece crisis, but they have ALREADY done almost everything that the troika was telling them to do.

If anything, it's the EU and the IMF that come out of this totally disconnected with economic policies. Greece has many mistakes, that is true, but it is not the first country to decide not to pay its debt (everybody talking about Argentina, but Iceland did the same just a couple of years ago). Greece just has less flexibility because of the Euro. But this is really not on Greeks' supposed laziness or whatever (they work more hours than Germans, for example), those are just easy stereotypes by Northern Europeans and Americans. I think they will find potential lenders. Don't forget Greece is strategically situated in the middle of the Mediterranean, in front of old rival Turkey and on the road of many migrants.
 

The Fukin Prophecy

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I would go back to the drachma too, but problem is they can't start fresh. They have a bunch of immediate needs that need to be met (pensioners, children, young people, unemployment, etc). Greece is about to turn into a humanitarian crisis. Going back to the drachma allows them more freedom to play around with their currency, devalue it and make exports more attractive, but it's gonna fukk their imports, and Greece is a country that relies on imports, especially for fuel. They don't even really have any big exports. They're not self-sustaining. They're starting from ground zero, and don't really have the tools to make it out. They're gonna need a huge influx of money to just stay above water, and right now no one in the entire world is gonna lend Greece any money after how they've acted throughout this whole ordeal.
You're right they're not competitive and the biggest problem is their huge reliance on imports...That is where they will get hit the hardest by going back to the drachma...

The country is sustainable on agriculture and tourism though...It's a small country with about 11 million people...They were doing fine before they joined the EU and went crazy with spending...Tourism will skyrocket when they go back to the drachma like its was pre-EU and being able to play around with their own currency will help them become more conpetitive BUT they are going to need big reforms if they're going to rebound...

Make no mistake going back to the drachma will be severely painful but in the long run Greece will be better off...Ask any economist worth a damn and they'll tell you the same thing...
 

88m3

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Haven't heard the same complaints when non white countries get bled to death.


:yeshrug:


The drachma is a nonstarter. If they were to go that route they would never get out of debt, the world has changed a lot in the last 30 years.
 

Liu Kang

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All of this can be linked back to the 2004 expansion imo. That move made the EU dilute instead of consolidating the institutions. Eastern countries (for various reasons) were much more aligned with neo-liberal policies and Washington in general, trying to move as far away from the influence of Moscow as they could. They were also much less interested by non-economical aspects of the EU. Going from 15 to 20+ countries was gonna be hard regardless, but those particular countries mostly had a very different approach to what the EU should be. As opposed to old EU countries who had been used to working together for decades and who knew more of each other, and that wanted to build a federation that could rival the US, Eastern countries were far more pro-US and liberal than Western countries, a result of the trauma they experiences under communist rule, and mostly saw the EU as a free market only (which is why GB and the US were among the biggest supporters of expansion to the East).

We lost, imo, by wanting to grow too fast.
I've always had that reflection.
We should have waited at least 5 or even 10 more years to expand to 25 and to 28 in the 2000s. We did it too fast because realistically it was already difficult at 15 but that move made things almost impossible considering the socio-economic state of the newcomers and some of current members. Though I can understand it strategically speaking which could have been done to undermine Russia's influence and "secure" eastern countries from Russia's hegemony. But really, the underlying problem is that their are no unique socioeconomic ground in the EU. For example, the very fact, that minimum wages (which are crucial matters when there are no borders) are different in every countries is a catastrophe.

I've seen from my own eyes how French construction companies would hire Polish or Portuguese workers (to cut costs) and win markets against French companies that hire French workers. Can't hate the hustle because those workers work as well as the French ones but I can't get jiggy with it either because it's not fair to hire foreigners whose countries have cheaper work cost and give them contracts relative to their countries' laws and not the one they working in.
A true Europe will consider every countries as federations but nationalisms are too high for this to happen.

I have a friend who works as a France representative (for a specific sector which shall remain nameless) in the European council and he tells me, that most of the time, they can't do anything because there are too much diverging wills. Say France wants to pass a law regarding, I don't know, oil exportation (randomly chosen). Spain for example may agree but will ask for adjustments, Italy may say nope because it messes up their own exports, GB may tell people to GTFOH for some reasons, the Netherlands may give a yes only if France give a "yes back" to one of their laws and so on and so on. It's a fukkin mess. And all of this cripples national administrations because when a European laws passes (which must then be applied within countries), it is so broad (in order to satisfy everybody) that it often is inapplicable.
 
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King Kreole

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Actually, a funny and ironic possible twist is that Greece could apply for help on basis of a humanitarian crisis...from the EU. That would probably come in form of direct aid to populations. It's a stretch, but it's not impossible.
Yeah if things get dire enough, this is a definite possibility.

And the word is out that Greece has done almost everything it could at this point. Even the IMF (yes, that IMF) has stated that Greece's debt is not sustainable and that the only way out of the crisis is to restructure it. Many economists are saying the same thing. As any debt crisis, Greece has been borrowing to repay the interests, not the debt itself : once you go that route there's hardly any way out. That's why 3/4 of the money "lended to Greece" never actually reached Greece : it went straight to the banks and the IMF. Over the past 5 years, Grece has been more frugal than any other EU country.

Greece has definitely been living under the harshness of austerity over the past few years, but what's spooking people is their history of mismanagement and a lack of institutional controls being put in to avoid the same scenario that caused this problem in the first place. I think the debt needs to be restructured, but I don't believe anyone would or should be lending them money until they've at least done some heavy fiscal and social reform.

If anything, it's the EU and the IMF that come out of this totally disconnected with economic policies. Greece has many mistakes, that is true, but it is not the first country to decide not to pay its debt (everybody talking about Argentina, but Iceland did the same just a couple of years ago). Greece just has less flexibility because of the Euro. But this is really not on Greeks' supposed laziness or whatever (they work more hours than Germans, for example), those are just easy stereotypes by Northern Europeans and Americans. I think they will find potential lenders. Don't forget Greece is strategically situated in the middle of the Mediterranean, in front of old rival Turkey and on the road of many migrants.

Iceland and Argentina are tempting comparisons, but both had crucial differences from Greece that make Greece's situation a bit more sticky. Iceland's recovery was due to allowing their banks to fail, and while they did default and tell creditors to fukk off, they were in a stronger economic and social position to do that than Greece is right now. Argentina recovered because they luckily came across a boom in demand from Chinese and Brazilian for soy and corn, Argentina's top 2 exports. Greece doesn't have any analogous exports to support them like that.

The problem isn't Greek laziness, it's Greek corruption, tax flight and institutional holes that allowed money to seep out in the first place. I just don't see lenders ignoring those things, especially with the NO vote and Syriza's rhetoric. Like, does Greece even have a viable plan for self-recovery if they go the default route? Tourism looks like their best bet, but that industry was really helped out by lax travel rules within the EU, and if they're kicked out of the Eurozone and EU, that becomes a difficult industry to maintain.
 
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