Elon Musk's luck has finally run out
Buying Twitter was the biggest gamble of Musk's career. Now he — and his empire — are cracking under the pressure.
www.businessinsider.com
Some keynotes.
This, ladies and gentlemen, is what it looks like when Musk realizes he's in a jam entirely of his own making. I know, because we've seen it before, including back in 2018, when he nearly flew Tesla into a mountain. He may find a way to ward off calamity, as he did then, but this jam is much tighter than the last one. Musk has to contend with over $13 billion of debt still weighing down a swiftly sinking Twitter, Tesla's profits shrinking because of a lack of demand and new products, and a world that is generally sick of his schtick. In Muskland, everything is connected by money — problems at one business bleed into the others. That's why Elon is being exceptionally obstinate. It's not just your imagination — his luck has changed.
Nowadays, some analysts, like Vicki Bryan, the CEO of the research firm Bond Angle, suspect that Twitter is spending much more than it's able to generate or borrow.
"With the company still burning cash and $1.3-1.5 billion in annual interest due over the past year, I had expected Twitter to live on borrowed time," Bryan wrote in a note to clients. She said that even if Twitter tapped the loans available to it at the beginning of the year, the company may be almost out of options. "The year is over, so Twitter's cash may be nearly if not already dried up—along with Elon Musk's options," Bryan wrote.
Wall Street should be thoroughly embarrassed. According to reports, the banks holding Twitter's debt are already expecting to take a $2 billion hit when they can finally sell it off. It's not hard to see why. I've said from the jump that there was no money in this Twitter venture, and no principles either. Musk was always going to turn Twitter into a reflection of his limited view, his "Earth" — as he put it during his manic rambling at Dealbook — not a place for the average user. I never expected Musk's fanboys to understand that, but I did expect bankers who are supposed to understand who pays for what in a media business to get it. In the end, there's a real chance Wall Street investors will wind up owning the shambolic mess that is Twitter/X. One of the few blessings to come from this fiasco is that when that happens, at least they'll know what not to do with it.