for the betters out here, the post your picks thread

[L&HH]

Breh let this be a lesson for the future: NEVER bet moneylines unless the odds are near even and there's zero value in the spread.

I.e. the spread is like +1 or 1.5, numbers like that rarely if ever have value, but if you can get 6.5 or buy up to 7 you always gotta take that number.

Moneyline bets on big or semi-big dogs are sucker bets 6 times out of ten, yes, sometimes they hit, but I can't tell you how many times I would've won had I just take the points and not been greedy.

Stay the fukk away from parlays too unless you're doing one for fun.

I used to hit three teamers all the time in NBA but looking back on it, I pissed away so much money because I would've won straight up, but those were in my rookie days

Hindsight is 20/20, but I loved houston at 6.5, I loved Jacksonville (thank god I didn't play them) but the only two plays I've made today were Colts +7 which is is pending, Jets +4 which I played, and I liked Pittsburgh -1.5 since that number had a ton of value but I didn't play it.

This is the damn truth. Had I taken the spread on the games, I would have hit. I just liked the payout/odds the m/l were giving me.

The picks I really like were Dallas, Carolina, ATL, and Pats. I only played Dallas on parlays (along with Cincy)...Carolina I only played the under on the game, didnt even play the spread, ATlL I should have played but didnt and Pats, I got on in the 3rd qtr when they were down and was hoping for them comeback and turn it around lol (I did the same thing on hou, Bal, and LSU yesterday...lost every single one. I didnt really lose too much and I was doing it to learn. So far this weekend Im still up about $50 (due to the UCF game). I need to trust my instincts more.

 

[USSInsiders]

This is the damn truth. Had I taken the spread on the games, I would have hit. I just liked the payout/odds the m/l were giving me.

The picks I really like were Dallas, Carolina, ATL, and Pats. I only played Dallas on parlays (along with Cincy)...Carolina I only played the under on the game, didnt even play the spread, ATlL I should have played but didnt and Pats, I got on in the 3rd qtr when they were down and was hoping for them comeback and turn it around lol (I did the same thing on hou, Bal, and LSU yesterday...lost every single one. I didnt really lose too much and I was doing it to learn. So far this weekend Im still up about $50 (due to the UCF game). I need to trust my instincts more.

I'll be real with you: there's sports I don't know a damn thing about that I've made money purely from instinct, reading the line, understanding the situation.

Sometimes you just have to follow your gut. When I saw FSU -3 last week, it was the ONLY play that jumped out to me and I had that game in my mind to play when the time came.

That play was PURELY instinctual and also since people were all on Clemson and when people tend to bet against favored teams en masse, that's a huge red flag for me.

Definitely trust your instincts more, stop playing parlays, and play the spread 90% of the time.

 

[L&HH]

I'll be real with you: there's sports I don't know a damn thing about that I've made money purely from instinct, reading the line, understanding the situation.

Sometimes you just have to follow your gut. When I saw FSU -3 last week, it was the ONLY play that jumped out to me and I had that game in my mind to play when the time came.

That play was PURELY instinctual and also since people were all on Clemson and when people tend to bet against favored teams en masse, that's a huge red flag for me.

Definitely trust your instincts more, stop playing parlays, and play the spread 90% of the time.

That FSU game was the biggest for me. My homie even txted me last night, like damn you were right, we should have betted on that. My instincts also told me to stay away from Oregon -40 (had I got on at -33 I still wouldnt have covered but I wouldnt even have felt bad), I just knew -40 was too much and played it anyways. I should have played Oregon State more aggressively than I did, I took them -6 first half, I just saw the line and felt it was too good to be true and only played $5 on it. Same with Alabama well I think I put $20 on them covering so I can live with that. My money teams are Oregon State (probably not anymore since their schedule starts picking up), Baylor, and Alabama.

Alabama plays Tenn, Im hoping they get a nice spread on due to their upset of SC and Baylor is on the road against Kansas (hopefully they get a good spread akin to the Oregon state Cal one)

 

[USSInsiders]

That FSU game was the biggest for me. My homie even txted me last night, like damn you were right, we should have betted on that. My instincts also told me to stay away from Oregon -40 (had I got on at -33 I still wouldnt have covered but I wouldnt even have felt bad), I just knew -40 was too much and played it anyways. I should have played Oregon State more aggressively than I did, I took them -6 first half, I just saw the line and felt it was too good to be true and only played $5 on it. Same with Alabama well I think I put $20 on them covering so I can live with that. My money teams are Oregon State (probably not anymore since their schedule starts picking up), Baylor, and Alabama.

Alabama plays Tenn, Im hoping they get a nice spread on due to their upset of SC and Baylor is on the road against Kansas (hopefully they get a good spread akin to the Oregon state Cal one)

Yeah also you have to consider trends and things like that sometimes. I hate to cater to the gambler's fallacy, but sometimes, the concept of a team being "due" for a cover or lack of a cover comes into play. They just steamrolled Arkansas, but it's very possible Tenn will give them a fight.

I hate playing big favorites so I tend to stay away from those huge ass spreads unless it's on the dog. It's all about picking the spot, and I think tenn against Alabama is a good spot if Bama is going on the road.

Edit: fukk, Tenn is going on the road?

 

[L&HH]

Yeah also you have to consider trends and things like that sometimes. I hate to cater to the gambler's fallacy, but sometimes, the concept of a team being "due" for a cover or lack of a cover comes into play. They just steamrolled Arkansas, but it's very possible Tenn will give them a fight.

I hate playing big favorites so I tend to stay away from those huge ass spreads unless it's on the dog. It's all about picking the spot, and I think tenn against Alabama is a good spot if Bama is going on the road.

Edit: fukk, Tenn is going on the road?

Bama's at home, but you could be right about Tenn putting a fight and Bama plays LSU the following week, so they could seek to rest their starters early (I got research if Saban is that type of guy, and I don't think he is)

 

[USSInsiders]

Bama's at home, but you could be right about Tenn putting a fight and Bama plays LSU the following week, so they could seek to rest their starters early (I got research if Saban is that type of guy, and I don't think he is)

I dunno breh, fukk that. THere's gotta be better games on the board. I absolutely hate betting against Saban. I did have TAMU +7.5 when they played Bama and I had some live bet on VTECH that covered against them but I just don't even fukk around with that team anymore

 

[L&HH]

I dunno breh, fukk that. THere's gotta be better games on the board. I absolutely hate betting against Saban. I did have TAMU +7.5 when they played Bama and I had some live bet on VTECH that covered against them but I just don't even fukk around with that team anymore

yea probably, gonna have to wait for the lines to come out. Any good betting guides to read?

 

[USSInsiders]

yea probably, gonna have to wait for the lines to come out. Any good betting guides to read?

I don't really use any because I don't think they're necessary but checkout covers.com and read their forums (lotta of insightful discussion on there) and be sure to check vegasinsider.com

vegas insider is a valuable resource to checkout all of the line movements

 

[KritNC]

What you thinking for this game tonight?

I read that the one stat that is most strongly correlated with winning is passing efficiency which NYG has the advantage 6.1 to 5.7. Now I just can't tell if freeman is goin to increase this number or decrease this number. Also the turnover margin has to switch back in the giants favor soon enough, I think ima lay the points with nyg

 

[KritNC]

@His_Excellence_Reincar @L&HH @BuddyOmar

You playing this game, I'm eating good off last nights win time to double down

 

[USSInsiders]

@His_Excellence_Reincar @L&HH @BuddyOmar

You playing this game, I'm eating good off last nights win time to double down

I'm not putting any real money on this game since it's shytty one and I'll just be playing for entertainment.

That being said, small play on Vikes +3.5

 

[KritNC]

I'm not putting any real money on this game since it's shytty one and I'll just be playing for entertainment.

That being said, small play on Vikes +3.5

This guys multi-variate linear regression system I have been following has this actual line giants -6 we going big again tonight

 

[USSInsiders]

This guys multi-variate linear regression system I have been following has this actual line giants -6 we going big again tonight

I hope you hit this blood. Link me to the guy you're following

 

[L&HH]

This guys multi-variate linear regression system I have been following has this actual line giants -6 we going big again tonight

My nikka wtf do you do for a living?

And you have a link to that system breh?

 

[L&HH]

@BuddyOmar

You know anything about arbitrage betting? Is this really that common? Seems like you'd have to have a mighty large bankroll for this to work though

http://www.sportsbettingworm.com/