Bernie Madoff
Banned
fukking Virginia Wisconsin over is shot already - Got Ohio State -11 and Maryland +16.5 
[/quote]
That's why take the under 58 first half breh.
[/quote]That's why take the under 58 first half breh.
for the betters out here, the post your picks thread
- Thread starter NoMoreWhiteWoman2020
- Start date
KritNC
All Star
That's why take the under 58 first half breh.[/quote]fukking Virginia Wisconsin over is shot already - Got Ohio State -11 and Maryland +16.5
Bernie Madoff
Banned
[/quote]
Got under 136.5 on this ohio st game
Just added a 2 leg parlay
Ohio st -2 (need Maryland to lose by no more than 19)
Under 72
Need game to stay under 141
KritNC
All Star
Got under 136.5 on this ohio st game
Just added a 2 leg parlay
Ohio st -2 (need Maryland to lose by no more than 19)
Under 72
Need game to stay under 141[/quote]
Im almost with you breh I need maryland to lose by 11-16.5
KritNC
All Star
CArolina +10
told u wisky ml
that +255
that +255
fukking Virginia Wisconsin over is shot already - Got Ohio State -11 and Maryland +16.5
Damn that's a damn good middle you got there....
KritNC
All Star
Here is the douchbag Chad millmans Article on NFL gambling up until this week and what teams the wiseguys have liked
Teams wiseguys love
1. Buffalo Bills
Remember when EJ Manuel started the year with a near miracle win over New England? Remember when he beat the Panthers in the final seconds of Week 2? At that moment, a lot more people were buying stock in Manuel than Cam Newton. How impressive do those two games look now? Forget for a minute that it would be two months before he completed more than 56 percent of his passes again, a run that included a month of missed games because of a knee injury. Even though he was showing his rookiehood, the Bills' offense moved more effectively with his playmaking ability. Without him, they became that team someone said Jon Bon Jovi wanted to buy. Jon Bon denied it.
Insider PickCenter
Wondering which side to take? Check out PickCenter and do your research before making that critical decision. PickCenter
The truth is, their 5.1 yards per play allowed is tied for 10th in the league and their 4.2 yards per rush is better than New England, Kansas City and New Orleans. The team started 5-2 ATS, has fallen to 6-6 and, in the final weeks of the year against Miami and at New England, when Manuel settles into a rhythm again, the Bills will have long been forgotten by the public.
2. Houston Texans
Every week the Texans have gotten wiseguy support and every week they have let bettors down. Based on stats, they are the right side. Their defense is among the best in the league in total yards allowed and just out of the top 10 in rushing yards per play and passing yards per play allowed. On offense they possess the ball for just less than 32 minutes a game, sixth best in the league. The problem is that they are minus-12 in turnovers, and more than a handful of those have been returned for touchdowns. Every wiseguy will tell you that turnovers are one of those stats in which there is eventually a regression to the mean.
Bettors are going to bank that some of that regression will happen in the final month of the season -- that trend may have started against New England in Week 13 -- especially when the square's perception of Houston is at its lowest and it faces public faves Denver and Indy.
3. St. Louis Rams
Over the final month of the season St. Louis will play Arizona (away), New Orleans (home), Tampa Bay (home) and Seattle (home). They will be underdogs in three of those four games, but that is reflective of a season's worth of public perception. The reality is that this team, while just 2-3 since Oct. 28, has been a lot better the second half of the season. Two of those losses were slugfests to Seattle and Tennessee and the third was a field goal fest until late in the second half. The Rams are the youngest team in the league and Jeff Fisher historically has been a wiseguy fave because of the way his teams consistently improve. This year, after an 0-4 ATS start, they have gone 5-3. But the public has ignored them because they've been so far out of the playoff race.
Super Bowl stock market
Super Bowl XLVIII odds (courtesy of LVH)
TeamOpen (Jan 14)Shortest odds (date)Longest odds (date)Current odds
"OFF" odds means that books are no longer taking future bets on that team
New England Patriots6-16-1 (Dec 3)10-1 (Oct 7)6-1
San Francisco 49ers8-19-2 (May 20)10-1 (Dec 3)10-1
Denver Broncos8-12-1 (Oct 7)8-1 (Jan 14)2-1
Green Bay Packers10-18-1 (July 15)75-1 (Dec 3)75-1
Seattle Seahawks10-12-1 (Dec 3)12-1 (Jan 21)2-1
Houston Texans12-110-1 (Jan 21)OFF (Dec 3)OFF
Atlanta Falcons15-112-1 (Jul 8)OFF (Dec 3)OFF
Pittsburgh Steelers15-114-1 (Jan 21)200-1 (Oct 7)100-1
New Orleans Saints15-19-2 (Oct 7)20-1 (May 6)8-1
Baltimore Ravens20-114-1 (Jan 21)100-1 (Oct 21)50-1
New York Giants20-116-1 (Mar 18)1,000-1 (Oct 7)300-1
Washington Redskins30-120-1 (Jul 15)OFF (Dec 3)OFF
Chicago Bears30-120-1 (Sept 9)100-1 (Dec 3)100-1
Cincinnati Bengals30-112-1 (Oct 21)40-1 (Feb 18)20-1
Dallas Cowboys30-118-1 (Sept 9)50-1 (Nov 11)30-1
San Diego Chargers30-130-1 (Jan 14)500-1 (Dec 3)500-1
Detroit Lions40-120-1 (Nov 11)60-1 (May 13)30-1
Minnesota Vikings40-140-1 (Jan 14)OFF (Dec 3)OFF
Indianapolis Colts40-114-1 (Oct 21)60-1 (Sept 16)30-1
Carolina Panthers40-110-1 (Dec 3)100-1 (Oct 7)10-1
New York Jets50-140-1 (Mar 11)500-1 (Dec 3)500-1
Philadelphia Eagles50-130-1 (Nov 18)100-1 (Sept 23)40-1
Miami Dolphins50-120-1 (Sept 16)100-1 (Dec 3)100-1
St. Louis Rams50-140-1 (Aug 12)1,000 (Dec 3)1,000-1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers50-140-1 (Apr 22)OFF (Dec 3)OFF
Cleveland Browns50-150-1 (Jan 14)500-1 (Oct 21)2,000-1
Kansas City Chiefs50-110-1 (Oct 21)60-1 (Mar 18)40-1
Tennessee Titans100-150-1 (Sept 23)500-1 (Dec 3)500-1
Buffalo Bills100-1100-1 (Jan 14)2,000-1 (Dec 3)2,000-1
Arizona Cardinals100-150-1 (Nov 25)300-1 (May 20)60-1
Oakland Raiders150-1150-1 (Jan 14)2,000-1 (Dec 3)2,000-1
Jacksonville Jaguars150-1150-1 (Jan 14)OFF (Dec 3)OFF
Green is the color of ...
It's not what you are thinking. I'm talking about the color of your face when you've had bad shellfish or just seen a picture of the MRSA virus in action or happened to turn off the TV thinking your Week 12 Broncos bet was safe only to wake up and find out you'd been Brady'd. It's also what the Gambling Opus has named the final 15 minutes of an NFL game, when your hard-earned money is won or lost.
All season long Jeff Gold, crack ESPN The Mag researcher and regular contributor to Insider, has been tracking how many games are within a score of the point spread heading into the fourth quarter. Last year, the number was 125 of the 256 games, or about 49 percent. So far this season, through 192 games, 96 of them (exactly half) were just a botched snap, Hail Mary, missed tackle, phantom call or rookie mistake from covering. Or not.
But wait, to really bring out that bright shade of green you wear so well, Jeff dug a little further and tracked how many games were still too close for comfort in the final five minutes. The tally: 86 of 192 games. This past weekend alone, nine games could have gone either way as the final gun neared.
So yes, my degenerate friends, there is no right side, only good luck and bad luck.
Teams wiseguys love
1. Buffalo Bills
Remember when EJ Manuel started the year with a near miracle win over New England? Remember when he beat the Panthers in the final seconds of Week 2? At that moment, a lot more people were buying stock in Manuel than Cam Newton. How impressive do those two games look now? Forget for a minute that it would be two months before he completed more than 56 percent of his passes again, a run that included a month of missed games because of a knee injury. Even though he was showing his rookiehood, the Bills' offense moved more effectively with his playmaking ability. Without him, they became that team someone said Jon Bon Jovi wanted to buy. Jon Bon denied it.
Insider PickCenter
Wondering which side to take? Check out PickCenter and do your research before making that critical decision. PickCenter
The truth is, their 5.1 yards per play allowed is tied for 10th in the league and their 4.2 yards per rush is better than New England, Kansas City and New Orleans. The team started 5-2 ATS, has fallen to 6-6 and, in the final weeks of the year against Miami and at New England, when Manuel settles into a rhythm again, the Bills will have long been forgotten by the public.
2. Houston Texans
Every week the Texans have gotten wiseguy support and every week they have let bettors down. Based on stats, they are the right side. Their defense is among the best in the league in total yards allowed and just out of the top 10 in rushing yards per play and passing yards per play allowed. On offense they possess the ball for just less than 32 minutes a game, sixth best in the league. The problem is that they are minus-12 in turnovers, and more than a handful of those have been returned for touchdowns. Every wiseguy will tell you that turnovers are one of those stats in which there is eventually a regression to the mean.
Bettors are going to bank that some of that regression will happen in the final month of the season -- that trend may have started against New England in Week 13 -- especially when the square's perception of Houston is at its lowest and it faces public faves Denver and Indy.
3. St. Louis Rams
Over the final month of the season St. Louis will play Arizona (away), New Orleans (home), Tampa Bay (home) and Seattle (home). They will be underdogs in three of those four games, but that is reflective of a season's worth of public perception. The reality is that this team, while just 2-3 since Oct. 28, has been a lot better the second half of the season. Two of those losses were slugfests to Seattle and Tennessee and the third was a field goal fest until late in the second half. The Rams are the youngest team in the league and Jeff Fisher historically has been a wiseguy fave because of the way his teams consistently improve. This year, after an 0-4 ATS start, they have gone 5-3. But the public has ignored them because they've been so far out of the playoff race.
Super Bowl stock market
Super Bowl XLVIII odds (courtesy of LVH)
TeamOpen (Jan 14)Shortest odds (date)Longest odds (date)Current odds
"OFF" odds means that books are no longer taking future bets on that team
New England Patriots6-16-1 (Dec 3)10-1 (Oct 7)6-1
San Francisco 49ers8-19-2 (May 20)10-1 (Dec 3)10-1
Denver Broncos8-12-1 (Oct 7)8-1 (Jan 14)2-1
Green Bay Packers10-18-1 (July 15)75-1 (Dec 3)75-1
Seattle Seahawks10-12-1 (Dec 3)12-1 (Jan 21)2-1
Houston Texans12-110-1 (Jan 21)OFF (Dec 3)OFF
Atlanta Falcons15-112-1 (Jul 8)OFF (Dec 3)OFF
Pittsburgh Steelers15-114-1 (Jan 21)200-1 (Oct 7)100-1
New Orleans Saints15-19-2 (Oct 7)20-1 (May 6)8-1
Baltimore Ravens20-114-1 (Jan 21)100-1 (Oct 21)50-1
New York Giants20-116-1 (Mar 18)1,000-1 (Oct 7)300-1
Washington Redskins30-120-1 (Jul 15)OFF (Dec 3)OFF
Chicago Bears30-120-1 (Sept 9)100-1 (Dec 3)100-1
Cincinnati Bengals30-112-1 (Oct 21)40-1 (Feb 18)20-1
Dallas Cowboys30-118-1 (Sept 9)50-1 (Nov 11)30-1
San Diego Chargers30-130-1 (Jan 14)500-1 (Dec 3)500-1
Detroit Lions40-120-1 (Nov 11)60-1 (May 13)30-1
Minnesota Vikings40-140-1 (Jan 14)OFF (Dec 3)OFF
Indianapolis Colts40-114-1 (Oct 21)60-1 (Sept 16)30-1
Carolina Panthers40-110-1 (Dec 3)100-1 (Oct 7)10-1
New York Jets50-140-1 (Mar 11)500-1 (Dec 3)500-1
Philadelphia Eagles50-130-1 (Nov 18)100-1 (Sept 23)40-1
Miami Dolphins50-120-1 (Sept 16)100-1 (Dec 3)100-1
St. Louis Rams50-140-1 (Aug 12)1,000 (Dec 3)1,000-1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers50-140-1 (Apr 22)OFF (Dec 3)OFF
Cleveland Browns50-150-1 (Jan 14)500-1 (Oct 21)2,000-1
Kansas City Chiefs50-110-1 (Oct 21)60-1 (Mar 18)40-1
Tennessee Titans100-150-1 (Sept 23)500-1 (Dec 3)500-1
Buffalo Bills100-1100-1 (Jan 14)2,000-1 (Dec 3)2,000-1
Arizona Cardinals100-150-1 (Nov 25)300-1 (May 20)60-1
Oakland Raiders150-1150-1 (Jan 14)2,000-1 (Dec 3)2,000-1
Jacksonville Jaguars150-1150-1 (Jan 14)OFF (Dec 3)OFF
Green is the color of ...
It's not what you are thinking. I'm talking about the color of your face when you've had bad shellfish or just seen a picture of the MRSA virus in action or happened to turn off the TV thinking your Week 12 Broncos bet was safe only to wake up and find out you'd been Brady'd. It's also what the Gambling Opus has named the final 15 minutes of an NFL game, when your hard-earned money is won or lost.
All season long Jeff Gold, crack ESPN The Mag researcher and regular contributor to Insider, has been tracking how many games are within a score of the point spread heading into the fourth quarter. Last year, the number was 125 of the 256 games, or about 49 percent. So far this season, through 192 games, 96 of them (exactly half) were just a botched snap, Hail Mary, missed tackle, phantom call or rookie mistake from covering. Or not.
But wait, to really bring out that bright shade of green you wear so well, Jeff dug a little further and tracked how many games were still too close for comfort in the final five minutes. The tally: 86 of 192 games. This past weekend alone, nine games could have gone either way as the final gun neared.
So yes, my degenerate friends, there is no right side, only good luck and bad luck.
told u wisky ml
that +255
I was looking at this. Wednesday is my busiest day class wise So I couldnt make any plays
KritNC
All Star
Ain't no number high enough
Everyone has their "A-ha" moment. And while Oprah has turned the idea into a movement and practically trademarked the idea, these moments of inspiration and clarity have been knocking people on the head for centuries, literally (see Newton, Isaac).
Personally, I had my own "A-ha" moment this year. It happened during the second half of the Broncos-Cowboys game in Week 5. The total for the game was 56, and with a little more than seven minutes left in the third quarter, the score was Denver 35-Dallas 27. More than 22 minutes remained in the entire game, and the absurdly high over/under had already been decided. We can all agree that I am not the sharpest knife in the drawer, but that game was when I said to myself there is no such thing as a total too low anymore. Scoring in the NFL is like the temperature in the atmosphere, it's only going up.
Back in the day, before the NFL decided playing defense was at best a nuisance and at worst a mortal danger, over/under bets were mostly played by those in the extreme ends of the gambling world: Specialists who put in the extra time studying scoring patterns and the once-a-year squares who went to Vegas, hit the books, enjoyed the free drinks and cheered for something, anything, to happen. But in the past few years, thanks to Internet machines and the accessibility of information, everyone has become a bit more savvy. The big data revolution has leveled the playing field, or at least made more people think of totals as an investment opportunity. Now, as The Orleans bookmaker Bob Scucci has said repeatedly on my podcast, on any given Sunday over/unders represent as much action as sides.
What bettors -- casual, professional and the increasingly large swath of people who regularly gamble on sports but don't necessarily do it for a living -- saw was that scoring in the NFL was increasing. Thanks to the Stats & Info group here at ESPN, I know that, in 2003, teams combined for a little more than 41 points per game. Over the next six seasons, through 2009, the number was relatively static. It peaked at 44.1 in 2008, then dropped more than a full point the next year, to 42.9. But, in 2010, it popped up to 44.1 PPG and it has steadily increased the past three years. In 2013, teams are scoring a record 46.5 points per game. With 78 50-plus point games so far this year, and 64 games left to go, there is a chance we will see more than 90 50-plus point games, the highest in the past decade.
Naturally, bookmakers have adjusted for this inflation in scoring. Take a look at this chart below that the SportsInsights.com team put together for me that shows how totals have increased the past 10 years:
NFL Totals since 2003
SeasonOver %Average TotalAverage % on OverTotals 50+
201355.945.465.528 (so far)
201249.644.864.535
201149.443.664.423
201055.842.866.37
200947.242.764.512
200849.642.566.513
200753.641.761.310
200650.440.563.42
200548.640.962.110
200450.441.860.428
200347.44160.75
Bookmakers are no dummies. Since 2007, the average over/under has jumped four points. Meanwhile, this year they have posted totals of 50 or more 28 times through 13 weeks, pacing them ahead of the 35 they posted last year, the most in the past decade. By the way, eight of those games have involved the Broncos, whose totals have exceeded 50 points 10 times.
And yet, even these adjustments may not be enough. Over bettors this year are hitting at a 56 percent clip (99-78-2), according to SportsInsights.com. At that I just have to scratch my head and say, "A-ha."
Everyone has their "A-ha" moment. And while Oprah has turned the idea into a movement and practically trademarked the idea, these moments of inspiration and clarity have been knocking people on the head for centuries, literally (see Newton, Isaac).
Personally, I had my own "A-ha" moment this year. It happened during the second half of the Broncos-Cowboys game in Week 5. The total for the game was 56, and with a little more than seven minutes left in the third quarter, the score was Denver 35-Dallas 27. More than 22 minutes remained in the entire game, and the absurdly high over/under had already been decided. We can all agree that I am not the sharpest knife in the drawer, but that game was when I said to myself there is no such thing as a total too low anymore. Scoring in the NFL is like the temperature in the atmosphere, it's only going up.
Back in the day, before the NFL decided playing defense was at best a nuisance and at worst a mortal danger, over/under bets were mostly played by those in the extreme ends of the gambling world: Specialists who put in the extra time studying scoring patterns and the once-a-year squares who went to Vegas, hit the books, enjoyed the free drinks and cheered for something, anything, to happen. But in the past few years, thanks to Internet machines and the accessibility of information, everyone has become a bit more savvy. The big data revolution has leveled the playing field, or at least made more people think of totals as an investment opportunity. Now, as The Orleans bookmaker Bob Scucci has said repeatedly on my podcast, on any given Sunday over/unders represent as much action as sides.
What bettors -- casual, professional and the increasingly large swath of people who regularly gamble on sports but don't necessarily do it for a living -- saw was that scoring in the NFL was increasing. Thanks to the Stats & Info group here at ESPN, I know that, in 2003, teams combined for a little more than 41 points per game. Over the next six seasons, through 2009, the number was relatively static. It peaked at 44.1 in 2008, then dropped more than a full point the next year, to 42.9. But, in 2010, it popped up to 44.1 PPG and it has steadily increased the past three years. In 2013, teams are scoring a record 46.5 points per game. With 78 50-plus point games so far this year, and 64 games left to go, there is a chance we will see more than 90 50-plus point games, the highest in the past decade.
Naturally, bookmakers have adjusted for this inflation in scoring. Take a look at this chart below that the SportsInsights.com team put together for me that shows how totals have increased the past 10 years:
NFL Totals since 2003
SeasonOver %Average TotalAverage % on OverTotals 50+
201355.945.465.528 (so far)
201249.644.864.535
201149.443.664.423
201055.842.866.37
200947.242.764.512
200849.642.566.513
200753.641.761.310
200650.440.563.42
200548.640.962.110
200450.441.860.428
200347.44160.75
Bookmakers are no dummies. Since 2007, the average over/under has jumped four points. Meanwhile, this year they have posted totals of 50 or more 28 times through 13 weeks, pacing them ahead of the 35 they posted last year, the most in the past decade. By the way, eight of those games have involved the Broncos, whose totals have exceeded 50 points 10 times.
And yet, even these adjustments may not be enough. Over bettors this year are hitting at a 56 percent clip (99-78-2), according to SportsInsights.com. At that I just have to scratch my head and say, "A-ha."
KritNC
All Star
Teams wiseguys hate
1. New York Giants
Right behind the Texans, with a TO differential of minus-11, are the Giants. And yet, regression to the mean is not a factor wiseguys are considering when it comes to New York. That's because, well, the Giants are a pretty crummy team. There is no redeeming statistical measure for New York, as there is with Houston, to indicate that this team has untapped value. The Giants are 23rd in total yards per play on offense and convert just 35 percent of third downs, 25th in the league. To make matters worse, the Giants went on a four-game win streak and then played the Cowboys close, making the public think they might be better than their record.
2. New England Patriots
New England's comeback win over Denver didn't just cement Tom Brady's legacy as this generation's QB-you-want-to-win-one-game title over Peyton Manning, it created a halo that will last the rest of the season. And their remaining games -- against Cleveland, Miami, Baltimore and Buffalo, teams wiseguys have found value in this season -- reek of stinky, overinflated traps.
3. Kansas City Chiefs
Oh, how fickle bettors can be. In Gambling Opus I, I crowned the Chiefs the "preseason wiseguy champion." No team had seen as much season win-total action as Kansas City. And through the first few weeks of this season, as the Chiefs rolled to a 5-1 ATS start, plenty of wiseguys cashed in. Then, by mid-October, when us squares decided Kansas City might be for real, the wiseguys turned their backs. Since that 5-1 ATS start, they are 1-5. That won't change in the last month of the season, especially when Kansas City goes on the road, likely as favorites, against Washington and Oakland. Ladies and degenerates, the Kansas City Chiefs are your regular season, overinflated, walk-the-other-way champions.
1. New York Giants
Right behind the Texans, with a TO differential of minus-11, are the Giants. And yet, regression to the mean is not a factor wiseguys are considering when it comes to New York. That's because, well, the Giants are a pretty crummy team. There is no redeeming statistical measure for New York, as there is with Houston, to indicate that this team has untapped value. The Giants are 23rd in total yards per play on offense and convert just 35 percent of third downs, 25th in the league. To make matters worse, the Giants went on a four-game win streak and then played the Cowboys close, making the public think they might be better than their record.
2. New England Patriots
New England's comeback win over Denver didn't just cement Tom Brady's legacy as this generation's QB-you-want-to-win-one-game title over Peyton Manning, it created a halo that will last the rest of the season. And their remaining games -- against Cleveland, Miami, Baltimore and Buffalo, teams wiseguys have found value in this season -- reek of stinky, overinflated traps.
3. Kansas City Chiefs
Oh, how fickle bettors can be. In Gambling Opus I, I crowned the Chiefs the "preseason wiseguy champion." No team had seen as much season win-total action as Kansas City. And through the first few weeks of this season, as the Chiefs rolled to a 5-1 ATS start, plenty of wiseguys cashed in. Then, by mid-October, when us squares decided Kansas City might be for real, the wiseguys turned their backs. Since that 5-1 ATS start, they are 1-5. That won't change in the last month of the season, especially when Kansas City goes on the road, likely as favorites, against Washington and Oakland. Ladies and degenerates, the Kansas City Chiefs are your regular season, overinflated, walk-the-other-way champions.
Vegas runners picks looking like money tonight idk what the totals were but it looks like md went over and wisky was under. Hawks are killing the clippers currently, bucks are up on the pistons. Im gonna play a 3team parlay with the jazz, twolves and jazz/pacers under. also going to play them straight
Dak Pickscott
Shout out to Dallas my bih is a star
san Antonio and Minnesota game in Mexico delayed by smoke in the arena WTF
KritNC
All Star
Breh looks like its going to be 16 points in this game 