Florida Gov. DeSantis will run for President in 2028

88m3

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Not surprised, the inability (or unwillingness) to recognize these patterns is the fundamental weakness of liberal movement/voters.

lol cool


he wrapped himself around Trump the last 4 years and doesn't seem to be pivoting

he's even doubled down the last few months with the internet law, crt, and probably other stuff I've already forgotten about. I think he even attacked the gays too

He needs Trump's base, moderates, and independents. How does that come about?

prove that he can do that and show how. don't just make cynical flippant statements
 

acri1

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There are republican anti trump voters right now thinking to themselves "he's even willing to give Biden credit...I like his style"

There's no such thing as Republican anti-Trump voters :mjlol: or at least not enough of them to matter. Trump is the most popular GOP president in decades unfortunately.

But that said, DeSantis is a problem, but for the exact opposite reason, which is that he stays on Trump's sack and thus will get MAGAs to turn out in large numbers. When you consider how close 2020 was in the swing states, all you need is the same GOP turnout and slightly lower Dem turnout and he wins. Dems need to be worried and coming up with a strategy early.
 

Payday23

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There's no such thing as Republican anti-Trump voters :mjlol: or at least not enough of them to matter. Trump is the most popular GOP president in decades unfortunately.

But that said, DeSantis is a problem, but for the exact opposite reason, which is that he stays on Trump's sack and thus will get MAGAs to turn out in large numbers. When you consider how close 2020 was in the swing states, all you need is the same GOP turnout and slightly lower Dem turnout and he wins. Dems need to be worried and coming up with a strategy early.
Pass the GD VRA
 

GnauzBookOfRhymes

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There's no such thing as Republican anti-Trump voters :mjlol: or at least not enough of them to matter. Trump is the most popular GOP president in decades unfortunately.

But that said, DeSantis is a problem, but for the exact opposite reason, which is that he stays on Trump's sack and thus will get MAGAs to turn out in large numbers. When you consider how close 2020 was in the swing states, all you need is the same GOP turnout and slightly lower Dem turnout and he wins. Dems need to be worried and coming up with a strategy early.

:mjlol: biden only won bc trump lost those votes. absolutely they are a small group, but that was essentially the margin of victory. not sure if you know but trump actually increased his % with black/hispanic voters.
 

acri1

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:mjlol: biden only won bc trump lost those votes. absolutely they are a small group, but that was essentially the margin of victory. not sure if you know but trump actually increased his % with black/hispanic voters.

Incorrect, Biden won because of high turnout from people who didn't vote in 2016.

Trump got more votes in 2020 than in 2016, so the idea that he lost a meaningful percentage of Republican voters doesn't hold up. He basically got everybody who voted for him the first time, Biden just got more people who sat out 2016.
 

GnauzBookOfRhymes

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lol cool


he wrapped himself around Trump the last 4 years and doesn't seem to be pivoting

he's even doubled down the last few months with the internet law, crt, and probably other stuff I've already forgotten about. I think he even attacked the gays too

He needs Trump's base, moderates, and independents. How does that come about?

prove that he can do that and show how. don't just make cynical flippant statements

Election isn't tomorrow, there's more than enough time for him to "moderate." But yes right now, as I've said, he has to walk a very thin line. He has to be "trumpy" enough that trump's hardcore base doesn't banish him forever (hence the CRT/Internet law etc etc you mentioned) BUT still be willing to say/do things that subtly hint to everyone else that he's not trump (publicly praising Biden).

Ppl are underestimating how quickly politicians can "pivot." But that's mostly bc the vast majority of voters already know who they're going to vote for, even before we know the candidates :russ: So to someone who knows they're going to vote for the Dem candidate, it seems ridiculous to think that one's opinion of a candidate could change so easily.

Consider this thought experiment. What if in August 2020 trump made a speech to the nation where he admitted he didn't take covid seriously, but that he was going to from that point on. He asked everyone to wear masks, offered additional money to encourage ppl to stay home and announced that he would follow any recommendations from Fauci etc etc. The fact is that even though we had seen 3.5 years of his corruption, mismanagement, racism etc etc etc etc....that almost immediately you would've seen institutions/media etc etc talk about how trump had pivoted to being a responsible president and he most likely would've won reelection. Hell, let alone August, I bet he would've won if that happened in October right after he tested positive.

The national attention span is as long as a video on Tik Tok.

Every single day there is a new story/event that completely dominates national discourse. Today it was the chick banned from the Olympics, tomorrow it will be something else. The cumulative effect of this happening every. single. day of every. single. week of every. single. month, is that when 2023 rolls around, 2021 might as well have been 1921. NOTHING DeSantis is doing right now will matter. The people who remember what DeSantis did in 2021 aren't going to vote for DeSantis anyways. Even Trump will be a forgotten figure. But trumps supporters will still want a fellow traveler in office. The "Never Trumpers" who voted for Biden did so bc they thought trump was an existential threat to the country and bc most of them are highly educated professionals (chamber of commerce types) who realized that fundamentally, trump's stupidity/corruption/mismanagement is actually bad for business. DeSantis is much more polished (Yale, Harvard Law, NAVY), he's also a white man - which by itself is good enough for a large chunk of the gop electorate. If the GOP is able to continue being successful at the race baiting, DeSantis' numbers with hispanics may be as high (or higher) than any GOP candidate in modern history (not to mention he already has some credibility with them bc he's in Florda).

Assuming there are no bombshell scandals etc in Florida over next cpl years, Dems only hope is that Biden/Harris have an incredibly successful 1st term. They also need to moderate on immigration.
 

GnauzBookOfRhymes

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Incorrect, Biden won because of high turnout from people who didn't vote in 2016.

Trump got more votes in 2020 than in 2016, so the idea that he lost a meaningful percentage of Republican voters doesn't hold up. He basically got everybody who voted for him the first time, Biden just got more people who sat out 2016.

20% of voters in 2020 didn't in 2016 or 2018 midterms. These are true "new voters". Of that 20% Biden won them 49-47. That's not that many votes. Turnout was strong, no doubt about that. But where Biden most dramatically increased his votes compared to 2016 and past years were with swing/ suburban/moderate Republican types. White men w/ college degrees were +10 for Biden but +2 for Hillary. Biden did 15pts better than Clinton w/ white men w/o degrees. In the states Biden flipped relative to Clinton, he did better with self identified Republican voters and slightly WORSE with Democratic voters (compared with his numbers nationally). Think about how Biden outperformed Dems in congress. Not saying it was a switch of tens of millions. But there were enough.
 
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