The problem is they haven’t done anything to get those customers back and Sony ain’t letting their foot of they neck. Everything they’re doing next gen is a repeat of things they did this gen. a $299 cheap console, Gamepass, lack of compelling first party games at least till 2022. Sony on the other hand is doing exactly the same things that brought them success this gen; a $399 affordable console, and a great first party exclusive line up, starting from launch and all through 2021.
Agreed, which is why I think is their final project. Game Pass will continue to expand for them on the other hand.
If all else is just about equal, people will go with what they're most comfortable with always and forever. Which makes a console launch pretty important since it can set the tone for the entire gen. Sony's had control since that E3 presentation and that spilled into PS4 launch, which set the tone for the next 7 years. MS needed something big to break this up since Sony has the community advantage by a big margin.
If that meant eating the cost of both boxes to get them at prices Sony can't get to, offering yearly deals on Game Pass for early adopters, whatever. MS needed something big, all we got is the weakest console not named Switch being $100 less.
TBH Sony's not offering anything spectacular out of the gate either, the launch titles for both of these are lackluster which has been the case for every launch outside probably the PS2. But like you said, that expectation is there that they'll offer the same experience that people have gotten used to after switching over and without a reason to try anything different, why would they.
